A new book by World Bank economist Dr Aklog Birara has been released and it’s receiving rave reviews for its in-depth analysis backed by a wealth of facts and figures about the multitude of problems that have plagued Ethiopia.

Ato Tadesse Gebre-Kidan, former Governor of the National Bank of Ethiopia, says:

Dr. Aklog Birara has meticulously and mercilessly exposed the manifold shortcomings of the political and economic constructs by the current government of Ethiopia–of the few, by the few and for the few–that mischievously claims: divided we stand united we fall, thus turning the time-tested adage governing national unity on his head. Through his analysis backed by ample data, he has gone on to show the way out of the morass. Ethiopians better heed his clarion for corrective actions sooner than later, to avert the possible cataclysm awaiting us.

The 512-page book, titled Waves: Ethiopia’s Endemic Poverty that Globalization Won’t Tackle, but Ethiopians Can, is now available at book stores, or can be ordered directly from the author at [email protected].

The following are excerpts from book’s Introduction:

In my professional experience in the development field spanning over 36 years with exposure to all parts of the developing world, I have wondered why some states have shown capabilities to transform their backward, agrarian and subsistence economies into industrial and manufacturing giants within a generation and why countries like Ethiopia–a country with a long and well established history and independence –have lagged far behind unable to free their populations from unimaginable levels of poverty. One will agree that none of us has the whole answer to this puzzle. One can speculate on the reasons for Ethiopia’s depths of poverty and dependency of 13 to 14 million or 18 percent of its 83 to 85 million people on international emergency food aid. Dependency on the globalizing wave of foreign aid will not resolve the policy, structural, technological and cultural barriers that have impeded productivity and reduce poverty. Given its considerable natural and human resources assets and potential, the country’s poverty and technological backwardness are largely political and man-made. Under favorable conditions, Ethiopia can achieve rapid modernization, reduction in poverty levels and create a solid foundation for shared prosperity within a generation. The small island nation of Mauritius has done it as have numerous countries like Chile and Korea.

A vicious cycle of poverty afflicts the vast majority of Ethiopians despite incredible good will manifested in billions of dollars of emergency and development assistance from wealthy countries. One the most aid-dependent countries in the world, it received US$2 billion in 2009 and is poised to receive US$1 billion from the American government alone in 2010. The United Kingdom, the second most generous bilateral donor is expected to provide 130 million British pounds this year. Various estimates put Ethiopian Diaspora remittances at between US$2.5 billion and US$3 billion per annum, including US$750 million through official channels. Remittances are among the major globalization waves that have I have witnessed over the past 19 years. I do not question the notion that generosity from the donor community saves lives, allows children from poor families to attend school, provides food for malnourished children, saves the lives of girls, women and HIV/AIDS victims and builds access roads. At the same time, there is ample evidence to show that aid has not overcome the policy, structural, political and technological impediments that cause recurrent hunger. Aid is a catalyst and not a panacea. There is perception that aid has created a cycle of dependency, induced corruption and strengthened single-party dominance. Many observers feel that the impacts have thus far been negligible for reasons that may have to do with priorities.

On the opposite side, the ruling-party, its supporters and a few in the donor community argue that substantial growth has taken place. There is substantial physical evidence in the form of hydroelectric power dams, roads and bridges, buildings and housing, schools and other infrastructure to show this. Ethiopia’s growth is largely associated with public and private sector investments in physical infrastructure. The public sector and the small Ethiopian private sector, including the Diaspora, have invested heavily into infrastructure: roads, office and rental buildings, condominiums, apartments and housing. There is no indication that substantial investments into the productive sectors such as industry, manufacturing and agriculture have been made. Lag in the productivity of the real sector is evidenced by recurring hunger, high unemployment and underemployment, especially an estimated 14 million unemployed youth in the country.

On January 26, 2010, Mary Fitzgerald of the Irish Times captured the sentiments of most Ethiopians when she reported that “While the country has experienced much political and economic change in the decades since the last major famine, the fear of hunger has never really gone away. The effect of successive seasons of failed rains goes some way in explaining why Ethiopia finds itself in this current predicament, but even when rains come and harvests are bountiful, nearly one tenth of its people rely on food aid to survive.

Other deeper, structural, policy and political factors are at play, including rapid population growth and the impact of government land policy. Some analysts argue that efforts to boost agricultural development are hamstrung by 1970s legislation that put all land under state ownership: a policy they say discourages initiative and stifles productivity.” Farming tools and “methods have remained unchanged for centuries, farm holdings have become smaller and smaller, agricultural productivity has not increased, and meager harvests must be stretched further.” This book attempts to diagnose the policy, political, structural and technological roots of the problem of low productivity.

Many Ethiopians rightly note that, against these impediments, most notably, polarizing ethnic-governance, government land policy and the structure of the economy, foreign assistance has done little to alleviate poverty. They express frustration and anger that foreign aid has shored-up a single ethnic-based dominant party that has been running the country as a source of wealth with impunity. They present evidence that this coalition has given itself and its supporters privileges denied to the majority. It has created inequitable institutions at a cost to the vast majority. They point out that civil liberties and freedoms have been squashed and the economic space has been largely closed. In its 2010 report on Ethiopia entitled “Human rights from bad to worse,” Human Rights Watch said that donors to the government “have been unwilling to confront the government over its worsening human rights record. Even at the country slides deeper into repression, the Ethiopian government uses development aid funding to leverage against the donors who provide it.” Most Ethiopians find this inexcusable. It is not the poor but the Ethiopian government that receives the funds. It is the government that allocates them in accordance with its programs to strengthen its power. They cite the interplay between political governance and socioeconomic outcomes and show persistent inequities across social, ethnic and geopolitical lines. They make persuasive arguments that aid does not address the critical political, policy, structural and technological impediments facing the poor. My own argument is that development assistance can only play a catalytic role to the extent ththat it is channeled directly to the poor for productive and asset enhancing activities. […]

(The book is available at Lena Market, 1206 Underwood Street, NW, Washington DC, between Van Buren and Gerogia Ave)