By KJETIL TRONVILL, UNIVERSITY OF OSLO
In the near future, I do not see any changes of policy either from the EPRDF’s side, or from the international side versus Ethiopia: it will be business as usual.
The donor group will embrace the result and the process, as it gives continued legitimacy for their cooperation with EPRDF, and the many difficult questions regarding democratic substance and respect for human rights can be brushed aside, as long as they can use the superficial technicalities of the process as window-dressing for ‘continued democratisation of Ethiopia’ – and thus justifying the billions of dollars spent on the regime.
For the Ethiopian public, the result will not signal any immediate changes either. The EPRDF will probably continue developing its totalitarian structure, with compulsory party membership for anybody who will be interested to pursue public employment and advancement within the country.
The result will probably have most effect on opposition politics. Some of the old-timers in opposition have earlier expressed that this time will be their last shot in elections. If EPRDF do not accept a level playing field, they will give in. This attitude might have changed, but I still think a cut-back to 10 percent of seats or so to the opposition will be a hard blow to carry for many of them. This will surely shake the foundations of Medrek, which might split up into two or more opposition platforms; as part of a blame-game of the election failure.
The result might also be used as a argument for the opposition groups which argue for a tougher more confrontational — or even military — opposition tactics towards the regime; as they can claim that the democratic space is too restricted for them to come to power via the ballot box.
4 thoughts on “Ethiopian opposition tactics might now change – Kjetil Tronvil”
Long, long time ago brave Ethiopians in Ethiopian Review such as Elias Kifle, Andy Tsigie, Berhanu Negga … have told you that Woyannie listens only to a stick. If you are still idiots and you want to be Woyannie slaves, go ahead and dream of change through elections.
This way, change will never come even in the next 20 years.
Wait, each of the Tigraian gangs are still waiting to be leaders, the next PMs are Azieb, Sium, Sibhat, Arkebe, Hagos, Samora … Children of Meles. That is another 100 years of Tigrai, fair enough?
Dear Kjetil Tronvil,
thank you for your Analysis. I think,you are right. Sad but true. We are going to accept one-party-system like china,if the ethiopians like it or not. Evenif it is better than the violence of 2005.
Here on all roads leads to the formation of Ethiopian Liberation Front. ashering to elections that does not take the popular leaders to lead this poorest country, but deem citizens to death and being sold as slaves, and reduce them to servititude status is nor democratic or worthy of wasting time on. Meles Zenawi had put it clear and crip that he ain’t going to give up power with ballot boxes, again and again. The drama of election is to sthoothe nerves of the guillable donors who dump trucks of cash at the zenawi’s inner circles personal pockets.
Ethiopians have entertained election since 1991, and all of them were bogus’ elections.
Now, door to door threat, have yeilded 100% control of the electoral votes, with stuffing boxes by Zenawi’s stoogies.
Here on, it does not matter what Obama administration says, or whatever European obserers say or do. The final issue is there are no country going to send army to forcefull remove 4% Nazi style small tribe to sell other 96% of ethenic Ethiopians into 100 years of slavery.
Every region is forsale, except their northern dust region of tigray, the benefitors are the circles of Meles Zenawi’s tyranical killers, Ethiopians have no chance to immigrate, nor heard of, where their next destinations.
Mass migrations are probable mood all over Ethiopia, for being smothered to a point Ethiopians elected their killer through fake and faked election.
All in the name of revolutionary Democracy, what an invention by the ruling party, which not only is playing fine for the monster evil regime weyane( aka the HAWZEN TGRAY ARCHITECTS, meles zenawi and co who meticulousely planded and executed and video taped a mass plane bombardment by the derg, after having disiminating false information to the enemy that there will be a gathering of the top tplf cadres in the market, a mass public massacre by a derg general through the work of weyane intelligence- The shamful weyane mafiose as a way of winning the hearts and minds of tigray and the tigrayan youth inorder to join the resistance, which sadly fooled every tigray citizen at the time.
THE FACT/S FOR THE WAY FORWARD IS TIME TO EDUCATE EACH OTHER AND THINK OF YOUR NEIGHBOURS NOT TO USE AND ABUSE, we have a common enemy called greed it seems it is what is running african governmnets in collaboration with western goernements and corporations ready to do what ever it takes at will!!!
lets all make this the beginning of the final of their downfall by any means necessary lets do so together with like minds.
Even though what happened on may 24th earlier this week may divide the country along ethnic lines furthest yet in to the abyse OF hopelesness, may have many implications negative or unwanted out comes interms of the development of independent and free instituitions and may severly harm relations and politics in the horn of africa, it probably is, given hardwork and sweat and proper attitude by the vast majority a blessing in disguise and window for change in discovering the majic key/ secret code for our future well being and fair politics. it is true on the other side of the coin this is what awaits those blessed enough to be future heros and herioins- a true struggle for hope and democracy of all the horn, and the will to fight for a better future, for our children and generations to come of the peoples of horn of africa, a government and governmnets for the people by the people where africans are free to associate with whome ever they want, free to join a party of their own will, and a society where commonsense overrides the current mischevouse governing by divide and rule and shortsighted agendas that only serve the few and exclude the majority, and most of all where africans prove true to their values/heritages/loyality to their selfs and neighbours, and where common good bound by hard work, are the core of the rules than dictations from ruling partys like such as meles- a new conscousness is on the cards>
good luck my beloved brothers.