VIRGINIA, USA (ea4c.org) — Creigh Deeds and the Democratic ticket suffered a sweeping defeat, turning what Obama turned into a “Blue State” back into the red column of the Republican Party. The loss suffered by the Democrats was stunning in scope and magnitude. Not only did the Democratic Party lose its hold of the Governor’s mansion, they also lost the Lt. Governor’s election and the Attorney General’s election. Furthermore, the Democrats also lost control of the State House. And in a completely jaw-dropping fashion, Deeds not only lost statewide, he lost in Democratic strongholds such as Fairfax and in Northern Virginia as a whole.
The one “Blue” spot in a sea of Northern Virginia red occurred in the City of Alexandria and Arlington. Amazingly, these were the only areas that Deeds won. These two cities are part of the 8th Congressional District, a district which is home to a massive Ethiopian-American community. By showing up in droves to the polls, Ethiopian-Americans were able to join a coalition of voters that kept at least one part of Northern Virginia blue. The turnout of Ethiopians in support of Creigh Deeds did not happen in a vacuum. Creigh Deeds reached out to the Ethiopian community on October 17th. Based on that outreach, Ethiopian-Americans for Change formally endorsed Creigh Deeds and the Democratic slate. In order to gauge the level of support that Creigh Deeds enjoyed, Ethiopian-Americans for Change conducted a scientific poll two days after Deed’s initial outreach.
The support Deeds enjoyed at that time from the Ethiopian-American community was anemic at best. The first poll revealed that Deed’s support level stood at an astonishing 28%. Moreover, only 45% of Ethiopians intended on voting on November 3rd. Based on these findings, Ethiopian-Americans for Change conducted an intensive voter outreach effort from October 19 through election night. In order to gauge the effectiveness of our effort,Ethiopian-Americans for Change conducted a second round of surveys to over 14,000 registered Ethiopians who live in the eight congressional district in the days leading up to the big election on November 3rd in Virginia. This was a follow up poll to get a feel of how the race is going and how much of an impact the Ethiopian-American community can have on the outcome of the state-wide race. The turnaround between the first poll (Oct 19th -21st) and the latest poll (Oct 31st-Nov 1st) was stunning.
* A 20 point increase in the number of Ethiopians who stated that they are currently registered (from 68.1% to 88%). This was not due to newly registered voters, rather, it was due in the increase of awareness on behalf of folks who voted last year yet thought they were not registered for this election
* A 26 point increase in the number of Ethiopians who stated that they were aware of the Nov. 3rd election (from 45% to 71%)
* A 22 point increase in the number of Ethiopians who stated that they plan on voting on November 3rd (from 36.3% to 58%)
* A stunning 28 point increase in the number of Ethiopians who stated that they plan on voting for Deeds (from 28.8% to 56%)
We did not have a data set from the previous poll for Jody Wagner, but on the latest poll, Jody Wagner was garnering 53% of the Ethiopian vote while Bolling was mired at 3.0%.
The massive shift can be explained in part by the sustained efforts Ethiopian-Americans for Change has made upon endorsing Creigh Deeds and the Democratic slate.
Consider:
1. Made over 2,500 phone calls using the database of 14,000 + registered Ethiopian voters we have from the 8th Congressional District
2. Held the “Meet the Candidates” forum where we introduced Deeds, Wagner et al to the Ethiopian community
3. Passed out over 2,000 flyers and posters to Ethiopian businesses and individuals
4. Sent out 4 emails to our Ethiopian-Americans for Change email database
5. Sent out countless press releases to generate interest from Ethiopian media
6. Leveraged our website (EA4C.org), facebook and twitter accounts to build up excitement within and outside of the Ethiopian community
7. Customized a youtube commercial on behalf of Deeds to the Ethiopian community
Based on these results, we are confident that our effort in the 8th Congressional District increased turnout significantly and netted Deeds anywhere from 3,500 to 5,000 votes. When the multiplier effect that our efforts had in other districts that have a heavy Ethiopian presence (10th, 11th, and the 7th), the Ethiopian-American community would have cast a decisive vote if the election this year was as close as the election in 2005.
(For full detail of the poll and any follow up questions, contact [email protected]. Raw numbers from the poll will be made available for all media outlet that have a valid credential.)