By Haile Lemma

Most Ethiopians, particularly the hardline Nationalists, hold the perception that Eritrea is still conspiring with the woyanne regime against the interests of Ethiopia. They believe that even the bloody border conflict between the two countries is an attempt by their incumbent leaders to deceive the Ethiopian people and the international community and is designed to tighten their grip on power in their respective countries.

Evidences on the ground seemed to have validated this perception until the year 2000, as the leadership of both countries had been trying to consolidate power by eradicating those who oppose their rule.

However, Woyannes Economic sanction on Eritrea, the border conflict, and the events in the aftermath of the conflict, not to mention events in Somalia, has brought a major shift in the relationship between the two countries’ leaders.

With the withdrawal of Eritrea’s support to the TPLF regime, the leaders of TPLF have been concerned with their relations with Eritrea, hoping that it work out in the end, despite the firmness of the Eritrean position.

This has led the TPLF to switch their strategies between normalizing relations with Eritrea with or without the EPLF, while continuing to assert themselves militarily to consolidate power in Ethiopia and avert any possible danger from Eritrea or elsewhere.

This, in my view, is contrary to the dominant perception among most Ethiopians that views both governments as working together, and needs to be changed if things on the ground are to change. I believe that after the last May election in Ethiopia, strategizing opposition struggle demands the opposition to change its unwarranted perception and think in terms of forming alliance with Eritrea that could work to the long-term interests of both countries.

The writer believes that a negotiated alliance of opposition with Eritrea is a key in the struggle for democracy in Ethiopia and peace and prosperity in Eritrea. This requires a rethinking of existing relations with Eritrea.

The TPLF Dominance in Today’s Ethiopia
There is no doubting to the fact that the TPLF established itself as a major force to reckon with, both as a national and regional force, in the eastern part of Africa. How did this happen? What contributions did domestic and international factors made to this reality? I do not dare to delve into the series of historical events that led to this event, as it is not the main topic of this article. But, the fact is TPLF emerged and updated itself as a regional force from its gorilla status. Existing trends are indicative of this dominance.

The TPLF has managed to establish its own puppet government in Ethiopia for the last sixteen years and is determined to continue to do so in the absence of any major unfragmented opposition.

The woyannes are now almost in control of all the national and regional institutions of social, economic and political structures. The TPLF cadres are in control of all key government posts in Ethiopia and have well established themselves in the federal government. They have political cadres in all the regions to watch regional colleagues behave exactly as they are programmed. They do this with the help of a well-crafted incentive system which makes regional bosses bow to the will of their TPLF masters in Addis Ababa.

The TPLF policy of patronization is key to its dominance in Ethiopia. The idea of getting political support in exchange for money or other benefits is not seen as corruption by the regime. The creation of patrons who are willing to support the regime politically in exchange for resources is a means to implement the revolutionary democracy of Zenawi in all the regions of the country. Many are willing to be patronized because of poverty in Ethiopia.

The woyannes have made good neighbors at a huge cost of Ethiopia and Ethiopians. The TPLF policy with Ethiopia’s neighbors has always been one of “let us be at peace what ever it takes.” This is primarily aimed at denying any possible safe haven to potential armed opposition in neighboring countries. The so-called border commissions and border trade relations with Kenya and the Sudan are designed to serve this objective. Obviously, this is something a nationalist democratic government is not willing and able to do.

A Weak opposition: why?
Despite the TPLF hegemony in Ethiopia, the opposition remains very weak and fragmented lacking unity of purpose. It has been made so by the well-crafted policies and deceptive diplomatic efforts of the regime.

The absence of leveled political playing field is one of the many causes contributing to the weakness of the opposition in Ethiopia. The Regime’s game of political opposition is based on the idea of loyal political opposition in which opposition political parties are expected to think and act within the framework of the woyanne constitution. Any independent thinking outside this framework is treated as being a traitor and criminal.

The regime uses elimination policy to kill the opposition leaders. In fact, intimidating, imprisoning and killing leaders who dissented is a major strategy for weakening the opposition. Capable leaders who take initiative to enlighten and organize people are always marked for detention and torture. Many leaders suffered this way even long before kinijit leaders come into the political scene.

Weakening the opposition is also meant to legitimize TPLF rule in the pretext of a weak opposition that cannot run the country even if it is given the chance to take power. Meles and his colleagues has always used this phrase to misinform their friends abroad, as if they are the ones who got certification from the Gorilla school in the jungle making them the best leaders of the nation playing by the rules they learned in the jungle.

I also believe that the opposition weaked itself. The Ethiopian opposition forces allowed themselves to be divided by their own making and by the enemy tactics. Most opposition members even today failed to agree on a common national agenda. Even worse, they let their differences remain even when their people are suffering from dictatorship. Their internal weakness opened the door for their common enemy to further subdivide them. They are weak because they still fail to realize the fact that it is their unity the enemy fears most, not how many men they have on the ground or how many supporters they have in the west. The call for meaningful unity is still unheaded or arrogantly ignored.

Misperception on Current Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations: Reality check?

Some Ethiopians still think that woyanne and the eritrean leadership are still working together and conspiring against the Ethiopian people. I, a strong nationalist, am of the view that this requires some degree of reality check.

I believe that there is a strategic gap between TPLF and EPLF since the border conflict broke or probably dating back to the times of the gorilla struggle. Contrary to popular perception, the events of at least the past six years indicate the strategic gap between woyanne leadership and the eritrean leadership. I call it strategic because it is related to the long-term interests of woyanne and Eritrea.

From the Eritrean side, while this had been the case up until the border conflict in the year 2000, it is no longer so. The events following the conflict severed the strategic link between the two dominant powers in the eastern part of Africa. The conflict led to massive human, material and financial losses on both sides. The bloody war cancelled the generation long ties and grew antagonism between the two powers.

From the TPLF side, though, all hope is not lost. TPLF leaders still see their future with Eritrea. Their long-term strategic goal of achieving independence for their tigray region, they think, can best be achieved with the help of Eritrea. The TPLF policy on Eritrea is one of tolerance and defensiveness until recently. Even, the strong stand of the eritrean leadership on tigray secession did not seem to have deterred them from seeking strategic alliance with Eritreans, to say the least. The normalization agenda and mediation through a third party are all tactics for restoring relations with Eritrea as a means to a strategic goal of full independence.

The Eritrean leaders have made it clear that they do not want to see independent Tigray, lest it would mean a lot of things including insecurity for the port of Assab and a threat for the territorial integrity of Eritrea.

However, the TPLF leadership seemed to have lost patience in recent times due to the perceived way the Eritreans act despite the former tolerance towards Eritrea. As a result, the language and rhetoric of normalization seem to have given way to a “Regime change” in Asmara that would enable them to continue with the strategic relationship with the future Eritrea without the EPLF. The effort of some TPLF cadres to work together with some Eritreans, both inside and outside, is a strategy to isolate the leadership in Asmara from its people. As such, it is not a sign of “working together” at the leadership level as most Ethiopians would like to believe. Whether the independence and regime change agendas are feasible options for TPLF leaders, only time will tell.

The Derg Era: Woyanne Alliance with the EPLF
Who could have thought alliance with Eritrea, at a time when all Ethiopians believed Eritrea did not have to break away from Ethiopia, is a key strategy for defeating the Derg Regime, a common enemy, and gain control of power in Ethiopian state? Eritrean strategy does not surprise me because it is precisely this strategy that could secure their independence, that without a proxy control of power in Ethiopia, secession would be practically impossible.

What I think a creative strategy is the one TPLF used to snatch power from the Ethiopian state that has long been the vangard of the nation of Ethiopia. I do not want to mention the stupidity of Derg leaders in acting rigidly, not creatively, to the eritrean question. The woyannes of Tigray thought the unthinkable and did the unexpected to achieve their objective of controlling power in Ethiopia. I believe this gives a lesson to opposition in Ethiopia in terms of strategizing opposition struggle. I believe the kinijit leadership in the USA has made a smart move along those lines which needs to be appreciated and build up on in the future.

The TPLF Aspiration of Independence for its Tigray Region
Despite its grip on power in the state and government of Ethiopia, TPLF leaders has not so far abandoned their paranoid and unrealistic ambition of independent Tigray. They did not even change their TPLF name while forcing other member parties in Ethiopia to change theirs.

Zenawi and his friends are still desirous of librating Tigray from the mainstream Ethiopian land. They made all regional states in Ethiopia to have their own constitution and flags. Their own constitution in Tigray indicates that Tigray people will remain in the unitary government as long as they retain their dominance in Ethiopian politics and state in the name of peace and democracy. Zenawi hinted this in his recent “secret document” circulated among the TPLF leaders in which he spoke of “self-reliant Tigray in the new millennium.”

They have incorporated this aspiration in the Ethiopian constitution and are waiting for their first opportunity, which hasn’t come yet. They see the independence struggle of the OLF and ONLF as a premature move that cannot be granted at this time. To me, the article that allows independence from Ethiopia is the “ let us secede together when TPLF want it” agenda that is planned to be realized after the homework is done: fuelling, instigating and masterminding hatred, tension and conflict among the Ethiopian nations and nationalities to force them decide in favor of secession.

Fortunately, this move has suffered a major setback. The Eritreans has taken a firm stand on the independence of tigray. The Eritreans has already made it clear that they do not like to see independent tigray, and that they want to work with a unitary government of any sort short of woyanne in Ethiopia. The problem they have is the mistrust towards Ethiopian people; especially conservative Ethiopians who does not want to accept the reality of independent and UN accepted country. Sorry, but that is the reality and the bitter pill we need to swallow. Historical mistakes on the part of Ethiopian leaders created this reality. We cannot correct this, however wishful we might be. We can only correct it through peaceful means through dialogue and mutual acceptance and thrust, which will be the core foreign policy agenda of the future government and state of Ethiopia.

The So-called Peaceful Struggle: What did it achieve?
It has always been the deceptive tactic of the TPLF that opposition politics is always framed in the name of peaceful struggle which aims at blocking any thinking and effort towards alternative form of struggling in Ethiopia. The peaceful struggle framework is still the overriding agenda and helped the regime to intimidate and chain opposition hands even when TPLF wants to strike supporters of opposition. Woyannes do not like to see any gun or a resort to gun on any one, especially in opposition hands. When that occurs, they are ready to negotiate. That is exactly where their weakness lies and that is when they start to shake to their knees, and ready to negotiate.

We should ask ourselves, where did the so-called “ Peaceful struggle” led us? The big question that the peaceful struggle has so far failed to answer is, can a peaceful struggle bring about democratic governance in a country characterized by 3000 years of tyranny?

The peaceful struggle has only led to the massacre of innocent civilians including the future leaders of Ethiopia who were not willing to bow to the idol of hatred and revolutionary democracy in Ethiopia. It led to the mass arrests and torture of Ethiopians. It misled our fathers and brothers who are well trained to serve their beloved people and country. It seduced them to work with a schizophrenic enemy to their suffering.

The events of the May 2005 election teaches us that we need to open our eyes to alternative forms of struggling without which the peaceful struggle does not bring the results we want in the shortest possible time.

So, the big question remains, are we going to repeat the mistakes of the past and let woyanne cheat us into believing that there is still a chance for a peaceful transition of power in Ethiopia through democratic means? If we do that, history would prove us wrong. We cannot topple a tyrant through peaceful, democratic means alone.

Room for a Negotiated Agreement
As things stand now, I do not agree with the conspiracy theory when it comes to relations with Woyanne and Eritrea. But, I do believe that Ethiopia and Eritrea need each other to fully develop in a short time.

I still believe that there is room for negotiation between Ethiopian opposition and the leadership in Eritrea for the common good. Issues like economic relations or benefits, access to the sea, normalization of relations, etc can be made if there is a political will on both sides. Both Ethiopians and Eritreans should cease to see each other as enemies. We were on the same boat and we can lead Africans together on the sustainable path of development. This is what the 21stcentury demands from both of us. The Ethiopian opposition should have this vision and attitude. So do Eritreans and their allies.

The perception that woyannes and the EPLF are on the same boat emanates from the conspiracy theory. In my opinion, this is not the case any longer. That is why we need to work together with our eritrean brothers to eradicate the woyanne monster from east Africa to avoid the threat to our survival. We should take lessons from its madness and brutality that is being committed against innocent Somali civilians in the name of fighting Islamists and terrorists. If we fail to act now, there is no guarantee why the same thing cannot be applied on the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea tomorrow.

Conclusion
The Bible tells us that when God wants to rescue His people, He raises warriors to challenge and defeat the enemy of the people. It is time for Ethiopians, irrespective of whether we are Protestants, Catholics or orthodox, Moslems, to pray to God so that men of Valor like Gedion and Samson would raise their hands against the enemy.

When the enemy is merciless, so does the wrath of God. The Woyannes have repeatedly shown their unforgiving attitude even when they have every thing under their control. Their sub-conscious is sick and wounded, and they refused to get treated and healed. Their wound and hatred is still fresh in their mind since their time in the bush. They persistently refused to forgive the Ethiopian people, let alone those who wronged them. That is why we need to rise up in unison to pray and challenge the politics of hatred and exclusion before it destroys all of us.

At the same time, it is important to seek peace and promote reconciliation with Eritrea and its allies, both at opposition level and at population level, for the common good of both Ethiopians and Eritreans. I believe that it is only through peaceful means that one can get what it wants from the other. There is a lot that we can exchange between the two countries if there is a way to communicate and build trust among our peoples and nations. This is God’s way of making peace and reconciliation that has long inflicted both of us. This is the way to mutual blessing and peace. This is God’s will for the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Haile Lemma can be contacted at [email protected]