By Elias Kifle
The pre- and post-elections political activities of Ato Lidetu Ayalew require serious examination and analysis by political scientists and historians. ER’s intention here is not to do that, because we do not have all the facts. What ER wishes to accomplish in this commentary is to try to give a more complete picture of circumstances surrounding Lidetu’s fall from grace. ER believes that our political leaders and those of us who are closely following our country’s politics can benefit from such a discussion.
It is a well established fact that Lidetu had a major role in Ethiopian politics in the past decade as a leading opposition figure. No one can deny the fact that he was instrumental in the defeat of the Meles regime at the ballot box in May 2005. In a series of televised debates before the elections, he delivered a knockout blow to the TPLF brain trust with his rhetorical firepower that was unmatched by any current Ethiopian political leader. One week before the May 15 elections, he received a hero’s welcome at a huge rally in Meskel Square that was attended by over a million people. The other CUD leaders received little or no attention from the crowd at the rally. Every where he traveled, he was received with admiration and respect. His photos were posted on walls and utility poles in cities around the country. He was THE most popular politician in the country and a leading figure in the movement against the Meles dictatorship. In a matter of few months, all that has changed. Currently, Lidetu is one of the most hated politicians in Ethiopia. Any one who says any thing positive about him, or even seen talking with him is called a traitor. ER itself received a lot of grief for interviewing Lidetu a few days ago. How did this happen? How could a man who was so loved and admired by millions of people becomes one of the most vilified politicians in a matter of days? Is the onslaught against him warranted?
ER believes that although Lidetu may not deserve to be called a traitor, and definitely not a Woyanne, he has brought all this on himself. How?
1. Timing
There were four parties, but three power centers inside the Coalition for Unity & Democracy (CUD) when it was formed in February 2005. The first one was the All Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP) led by Ato Hailu Shawel. The second one was Kestedamena led by Dr Berhanu Nega, and the third was UEDP-Medhin led by Lidetu–although the chairman was Dr Admasu Gebeyehu. The fourth member of the coalition, Ethiopian Democratic League (EDL), the smallest of the four parties, had an insignificant role in the coalition. Its leaders mostly sided with Dr Berhanu Nega and acted as Kestedamena members. After the elections, the UEDP-Medhin chairman Dr Admasu Gebeyehu began to identify himself more with the CUD than his own party. He even stopped attending UEDP-Medhin’s meetings. So it was Lidetu who tried to represent the UEDP-Medhin in the coalition.
Lidetu’s party, UEDP-Medhin, had more members and its candidates won more seats in the 2005 elections than any of the other parties in the CUD. But after the elections, UEDP-Medhin, particularly its younger leaders, were sidelined by the AEUP and Kestedamena leaders with the help of the UEDP-Medhin chairman. The UEDP-Medhin chapters and committees inside the country and around the world stopped receiving any direction on how to proceed as members of the CUD. The older officials of the UEDP-Medhin–particularly the chairman, Dr Admasu Gebeyehu and vice-chairman Dr Hailu Araya–were coopted by the AEUP and Kestedamena leaders. They found to have more in common with the AEUP and Kestedamena leaders than the young turks (Lidetu et al) in their own party. They often voted against Lidetu and Mushe inside the CUD executive committee while the others voted party line. By July 2005, an alliance of AEUP, Kestedamena and the older members of the UEDP-Medhin emerged against Lidetu & Company inside the CUD.
The CUD troika–Hailu Shawel, Berhanu Nega and Lidetu Ayalew–that defeated the Meles dictatorship in the ballot box transformed into two warring factions–one led by Hailu Shawel and the other by Lidetu Ayalew. Berhanu Nega, who has his own strong following, joined the Hailu Shawel camp. He might have seen the popular Lidetu as a long-term threat to his own political ambition. The AEUP-Kestedamena leaders, who are much older, much wealthier, and had much more advanced education, did not see the young leaders of UEDP-Medhin as their equals. They looked down on them more as rabble-rousers than level-headed politicians. Most of Lidetu’s and Mushe Semu’s ideas and proposals were dead on arrival at the CUD Council meetings. It seemed that some times they rejected Lidetu’s ideas just to irk him. He in turn did not respect their approach to politics, and forcefully challenged them. His style was confrontational, and blunt, antagonizing many of the CUD leaders who are sensitive to diplomatic niceties. He was particularly disrespectful towards Ato Hailu Shawel. The two disliked each other.
During the heated internal debates inside the CUD leadership regarding how to react to the gross election fraud that the Meles regime committed, Lidetu and allies pushed for a more populist approach. They opposed going to the courts and the diplomatic community to protest the vote fraud. They wanted to confront the Meles regime through rallies, general strikes and other popular actions. They vociferously argued that going to the courts, which are controlled by the Meles regime, was useless.
The tension between these two camps continued to threaten the survival of the CUD. Some how the coalition survived through the elections, but break up was inevitable as the differences in ideology, strategy, and style of leadership were too wide apart for the two groups to remain together. With all the distrust, lack of mutual respect, and built up resentment, the only way for the CUD to survive was for one of the two camps to give in, or be destroyed by the other. The stubborn Lidetu, by then organizationally a lot weaker, was not about to give in. So, first the Hailu Shawel camp carried out a divide and conquer policy on UEDP-Medhin. They successfully brought many of the UEDP-Medhin leaders to their side. Then they gave a green light to their supporters to politically destroy Lidetu. As young politicians who are new to intraparty battles, Lidetu and allies lost out to the more experienced politicians. In politics, timing is every thing–none more so than in intra party battles. So instead of accepting defeat, and waiting for the right time to wage another battle, Lidetu and allies went on a kamikaze (suicide) mission.
2. Not responding to false rumors and fabricated stories
Knowing the rhetorical firepower of the Lidetu camp, his opponents in the CUD made sure than Lidetu is politically dead and buried. None of his opponents believed that Lidetu was a Woyanne or a traitor. In a number of discussions ER held with the top CUD leaders, their complaint about Lidetu had never been that he is a Woyanne. Their main worry was that he is a populist and a reckless leader who could have them all killed. Accusations of recklessness and hotheadedness was not enough to defeat Lidetu in the court of public opinion. So rumors started surfacing about Lidetu meeting with Sebhat Nega and other Woyanne leaders. Fabricated stories were published in newspapers, such as Lidetu received money from Al Amoudi, took up residency in Sheraton Hotel free of charge, etc. Confident that no body would believe such rumors, Lidetu failed to respond. In our culture, any thing written down is taken seriously, no matter how false the story is. But Lidetu simply brushed off the flood of rumors and negative newspaper reports about him. At the time, ER had asked Lidetu several times to interview him so that he could refute the damaging stories against him. He refused to do so saying that it is not necessary. He said that the people would not trust any of the negative stuff that was being said about him. How wrong he was! His silence gave credence to the rumors.
3. Sycophant supporters
Lidetu made a series of blunders, all of them as a result of his unwillingness to listen to the advise of others. This is a major flaw in his character. But how did he came to be like that? The answer lies in the sycophantic support he was getting from his friends and followers. Blind supporters have destroyed the careers of a number of promising leaders. Lidetu is one of their victims. They made him out to be an all-knowing, omnipotent leader. For a young politician in his 30s, such adulation and flattery no doubt had a corrupting effect on his character. Surrounded by an army of sycophants and zealots who worshipped him, Lidetu thought that he could not do any thing wrong, and he didn’t need advise from any one.
ER views sycophantic followers of political leaders with contempt. They are a scourge on Ethiopian politics.
4. Unwise words and decisions
Lidetu’s popularity and credibility with the people remained intact even after he was expelled by the CUD executive committee in late October 2005. He was expelled because he refused to surrender UEDP-Medhin’s official stamp he was keeping as secretary of the party after the four parties have merged to make CUD a unitary party. At the meeting of UEDP-Medhin executives, he was outvoted in favor of giving up the stamp that was needed to finalize the merger. But he refused, arguing that only the general meeting of the party can decide on such an issue. His legalistic stand did not have a strong foundation since at a previous general meeting the members had given the executives a mandate to make all merger-related decisions on their behalf. Politically, too, his decision was suicidal, because he was going against a strong desire by the people to make CUD a unitary party. Lidetu was portrayed as a divisive figure who was an obstacle to unity. If he wanted to take a principled–and what he believed was a legal–position, he should have resigned and gone home, instead of dragging himself and his allies through the ugly fight that was to follow. His irrationally stubborn stand caused so much unnecessary pain to so many people, particularly his supporters.
Lidetu didn’t stop there. When Meles unleashed his Federal Police and Agazi death squads on CUD leaders and members, he was not heard uttering any word of condemnation. To make matters worse, he wrote a book that condemns the jailed leaders and spoke out against them on radio and newspaper interviews while they were languishing in jail. What he was saying in the book and the interviews could be factual, but the timing was not right. It was also politically and morally incorrect to attack those who cannot defend themselves.
When the Meles regime unleashed a brutal attack on CUD leaders and supporters, Lidetu should have put aside his political differences and expressed solidarity with his former colleagues, no matter how much unfairly he felt they treated him. The least he could have done was to distance himself as far away as possible from the fascist regime that is brutalizing the people whose votes it has stolen. Instead, what Lidetu did was to show up in the parliament in the same stage with Woyanne mass murderers who had gunned down some of his own supporters just a few weeks ago. No wonder why his supporters felt betrayed. The Woyanne propaganda machine that used to demonize Lidetu for the past ten years jumped on the opportunity to exploit his appearance in the parliament a short distance away from the tyrant.
With all the complaints against Lidetu until that time, had he boycotted the parliament, his popularity as a political leader would not have significantly changed. The false rumors and fabricated newspaper reports against Lidetu had a negative impact on his popularity, but what hurt him the most and probably irreparably damaged his political career were his own unwise words (attacking the jailed leaders), and his own unwise decision (entering the fake parliament).
Can Lidetu revive his political career?
There is no doubt that Lidetu can revive his political career if he takes some steps to address the grievances against him. Ethiopians are the most forgiving people. If Lidetu wants to get back in the people’s good graces, he is well advised to do the following:
1. Organize and lead a boycott of the Woyanne parliament until all the opposition leaders and members are released
2. Demand the immediate resignation of the Meles regime for stealing the people’s votes, murdering unarmed civilians, illegally detaining tens of thousands of innocent civilians, etc.
3. As a political leader, listen what the people are saying
4. Admit mistakes and apologize
Individuals like Lidetu come one in a million. He is a gifted orator and has a brilliant mind. With experience and age, he has the potential to be a great political leader. It would be a great loss and a tragedy for our country if all the contributions Lidetu made and the sacrifices he paid for freedom and democracy in the past 10-15 years are discounted because of a few ill-advised decisions he made and unwise words he spoke. What Lidetu went through in the past ten months can only make him a better person and a better politician if he does what needs to be done. But if he thinks that he didn’t make any mistake, refuses to tune in to the heartbeat of the people, and continues to show up in the same stage with the number one terrorist in Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, he would be digging his own political grave deeper and deeper.