By Messay Kebede
I would like to thank Jawar Siraj Mohammed for the civility with which he engaged my article, “The OLF: Ideological or Leadership Bankruptcy?” Some Oromos responded to the article with emotional outcries and personal attacks, thereby displaying not only their alarming deficiency in sound arguments, but also their refusal to even discuss the issue. Some even went to the extent of saying that the Oromo issue is none of my business, as though Oromia had already become a foreign country. The happy contrast is that Jawar argues and wants to show that what failed the Oromo is not the ideology but the leadership. Since his sober and argued reply denotes an opening to dialogue, I reciprocate with an even higher longing for a rapprochement.
Jawar’s arguments are as follows: (1) there is no ideological bankruptcy since the large majority of the Oromo people supports the nationalist agenda of the OLF. (2) It is not true to say that the OLF operates in geographical conditions that are inimical to armed insurgency. (3) The success of the TPLF and EPLF highlights the importance of leadership. (4) The failure of the EPRP was due less to ideology than to strategic mistakes of its leadership.
What we get from these factual arguments is that “ideology does not play much role in determining the failure and success of an insurgency.” Jawar adds that, so long as an insurgency is not strong enough, it cannot consider reformist options, for it is suicidal for an organization to give up its mobilizing ideology. In other words, the Oromo nationalist or secessionist agenda should be preserved until the movement is strong enough to reform itself. Let me examine one by one these arguments.
Who Wants Secession?
Is it true to say that the Oromo people supports the secessionist agenda of the OLF? For that matter, let us extend the issue and ask whether the Eritrean people has supported the secessionist goal of the EPLF and whether the Tigrean people has agreed to the secession of Eritrea and the fragmentation of Ethiopia along ethnic lines. If both movements led to dictatorial regimes, is it not because the so-called popular support was actually imposed on the people they claim to represent? True, both Eritreans and Tigreans wanted self-rule, but it is one thing to fight against centralization and quite another to advocate secession. The latter is none other than a resurgence of the elitism of the 60s when Western-educated Ethiopians usurped the right to speak in the name of the people.
The only way by which Jawar can convince himself and other Ethiopians about the popular support for secession is through the implementation of a free and fair democratic process that begins by making serious reforms. If, after a time of power-sharing and democratic relationships, the Oromo people still expresses the desire to secede, only then can we speak of popular support. But all theoreticians, including ethnonationalists, know that in a truly democratic setup secession is unlikely. Put otherwise, what Jawar presents as a fact is not yet a fact; it is an elitist manipulation that uses past mistreatments to justify partition.
I add that if the Oromo had really wanted to separate from the rest of the country, no force on earth could have stopped them. Then, what is Jawar’s hurry? Let democracy sets in and you will have what you want if the grievances are still real. Incidentally, Jawar accepts that the OLF does not own the monopoly of representing the Oromo people, since he accuses me of “categorizing all Oromos under one ideology and under one organization.” Another mishap is when he calls my position “centrist,” even though all the books and articles I have written on Ethiopia unravel centralization as the main reason for Ethiopia’s failure to modernize.
Comparing Apples with Oranges
I leave out Jawar’s assumption that the OLF operates in conditions conducive for insurgency because it cannot be decided by people who write from America. However, there remains the issue of finding a neighboring country that provides political and military assistances, especially, that can serve as a shelter. In his reply, Jawar completely overlooked a detrimental outcome that he had vigorously and correctly denounced in his first article, to wit, the growing subordination of the OLF to the Eritrean regime. Yet the ideology of secession which, of course, leads to the choice of armed struggle, is responsible for the subordination.
Once it is said that the OLF has appropriate geographical conditions, the question is why it is still failing. Jawar’s answer is unequivocal: the severe shortcomings of the leadership. He uses a comparative approach to prove his point, namely, the military success of the TPLF and EPLF against the Derg. Unfortunately, the comparison is defective from various angels. One cannot compare the secession of Eritrea with that of Oromia. Not only different historical and geographical reasons intervene, but also minority groups, as was the case with Eritrea, have often no other option that the threat of secession.
When it comes to Oromia, we are presented with the unheard case of a group that wants to secede, even though it claims to be the largest ethnic group of the country. It is the unfeasibility of the case that derives me to speak of ideological bankruptcy. In the records of history, majority groups have defended the nation so that secession has always been the ideology of overpowered peoples. That is why I spoke of “self-mutilation” in that a group is degraded into thinking and acting like a desperate minority group. The Oromo need an ideology that is commensurate with their potential. Only then can they emerge victorious.
Who is the Winner?
As to the TPLF, its success should be taken with a grain of salt in light of the fact that Tigray is historically and culturally one of the cornerstones of Ethiopia. As such, any ideology that supports the breakup of Ethiopia is contrary to the historical role and identity of Tigrean people. That is why every time I hear about the victory of the TPLF’s insurgency, I cannot contain my perplexity. If the success of the TPLF depended on the secession of Eritrea, then I do not see where the victory is. Mengistu Haile Mariam could have also stayed in power by letting Eritrea go. Such an outcome would have been considered, not as a victory, but as a defeat. Moreover, how is the fragmentation of Ethiopia along ethnic lines an expression of victory? When Ethiopia is diminished and put in a condition close to disintegration––which is the only way by which an anti-Ethiopian Tigrean clique can dominate the country––I do not shout victory for the Tigrean people.
In place of victory, I see defeat, as no amount of military prowess will remove the bare fact of Ethiopia as a landlocked country. What was the main source of Ethiopia’s weakness and isolation in the past, that is, since the control of the Red Sea by Muslim forces, is back again thanks to the TPLF. Some years ago I posted an article in which I asked Ethiopians to let Assab go because it would only mean continuous war against Eritrea. I argued that the best option is to work toward the return of Eritrea through some form of federal arrangement. The TPLF government is now fully experiencing the huge impediment of being landlocked. The ethnic paradigm and victory at all costs, even by sacrificing Eritrea, combined to bring disaster and despair on Ethiopia. In light of these monstrous costs, is “victory” really a proper term?
Ideology and the Choice of Means
I am confused by Jawar’s statement that “ideology does not determine the failure and success of an insurgency.” How can it be so when we know that strategic choices are dependent on ideological inspirations? The OLF and EPLF opted for guerrilla warfare because of their secessionist ideology. Consequently, they allied with forces opposed to Ethiopia and refused to work with Ethiopia’s progressive forces. Likewise, to associate with the EPLF, the TPLF had to invent the ideology of Tigray as a nation and adopt ethnic references as the highest norms of political struggle. This ideological orientation explains why it could not ally with the EPRP and other progressive forces. Instead, it went in the direction of helping Eritrea to become independent in exchange for military and political support. You cannot explain the TPLF’s “victory” without its alliance with, nay, its subordination to the EPLF. In short, vision commands strategy as well as the degree of commitment.
To explain the defeat of the EPRP by the failure of its leadership is correct, provided it is added that the leadership failed because of ideological extremism. The choice of urban guerrilla struggle, which is believed to be the main blunder of the organization, is not separable from the slogans demanding a people’s government and socialism. If the EPRP had focused on democratic struggles for freedom of association and expression and for the establishment of a national government of reconciliation, etc., it would not have embarked on the wrong path of urban guerrilla. Contrary to Jawar’s statement, at that time, people, including the bureaucratic elites, the peasantry, the workers, and the Amhara population, expressed democratic demands as opposed to the socialist ideology of students and intellectuals. The EPRP and other leftist movements fought for the control of the state in order to impose their vision on the society. The Derg foiled the project and adopted socialism, not because it was forced to do so by the civilian left, as some authors claim, but because socialism exactly fitted its dictatorial interests.
The debate over the primacy of the national question over class interest in the Ethiopian student movement is the typical ideological battle that led to the formation of the TPLF and the OLF. According to the Stalinist vision, the liberation of the ethnic group has precedence over the consideration of unity with other groups. The detrimental consequence of this reasoning fully transpires in today’s Ethiopia, since the vibrant student movement in Ethiopia is now practically dead, undermined as it is by the dividing impact of ethnic ideology. This death is a palpable proof of how deeply ideology can be paralyzing. My message to Jawar is thus clear: what keeps you in chains is the diatribe against Amhara, Abyssinians and the correlated discourse on the Ethiopian colonization of the Oromo, which discourse undermines the gestation of common goals and actions.
Here and there Jawar’s reply seems to suggest that self-determination and secession are used for their mobilizing power rather than their intrinsic merit. He writes: “just because an ideology makes it simple to mobilize support, it does not mean it should be adapted without careful and rational evaluation of its short term and long term impact after liberation.” A merely tactical purpose diminishes the mobilizing power: not only does the secessionist ideology divide people, but also a tactical usage means that the leaders do not really believe in the ideology they are preaching. If that is the case, weigh the for and against, and it becomes clear that the best option is to simply drop the ideology.
But neither Jawar nor the leaders of the OLF are willing to drop the ideology. Why? Because it would allow extremist groups to rise and marginalize the present leadership. This is the inevitable price for cultivating and spreading for such a long time a divisive ideology. At one point a situation is created where it becomes impossible to reverse course. All the more reason for allying now with Ethiopia’s moderate and progressive forces, for only the engagement of the country in the path of resolute democratization can block the rise of extremist groups.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])
17 thoughts on “More on OLF leadership”
Ato Messay:
Can you stop moaning about OLF and distracting us from the REAL issues? You seem to “care for the country”, and OLF and Oromos are the least of the troubles. If you have problem with them, say so. Why anyone has the urge to write on the issues you choose when we have a big unbearable burden removing the tyrants. We are not in any mood to listen your elitist comments coming from the so-called diaspora when you have never succeeded in making any significant contribution in the struggle except writing fancy articles that do not hold water. Wake up!
I am very pleased to see a well cultured and civilized dialogue from parts of Obo Jawar and Ato Messay Kebede. You two guys are a very best example for the rest of Ethiopians that we can work out our differences by presenting ideas and putting our different perspectives in such a civilized manner. You chose this refined way instead of going the other path in which many of us failed to reach a viable consensus that led us to a meaning less disparity and hatred. From such a refined dialog we can learn and shape our positions on this big issue. I am half Oromo and half Amhara by birth and torn apart on the idea of disintegrating Ethiopia by a few reckless Ethiopian called themselves Oromo liberators. Allow me to put the following point for a second time.
I am in total confusion when some Oromo groups are singing self determination day in day out. What are they looking for? A power of majority government as they claim they are the largest tribes of Ethiopia. I do not understand why they insist in the so called self determination. From who and for what purpose? Did they look the Ethiopian people and how they are located in that big country? Who will be seceded from whom? We have witnessed the ugly pictures and results of secession. I do not think that the Ethiopian people including the majority Oromos will be happy to create 70 small governments and villages called nation from one country. Instead we have to fight and concentrate on how we can create a strong democracy in united Ethiopia.
No one in his reasonable mind is going to disintegrate a country just to get power while they can achieve their majority representation in a government if democracy is given a chance to implement power by the people to the people. However, those who are advocating self determination are afraid of this democracy because they know they will be rejected by the majority of the “Oromo that they want to liberate from slavery.”
This people are greedy individuals who need to benefit at the expense of the Oromo people. We the people have to stop these ill advised power thirsty hate mongers.
Messay, stop calling the eritrean issue as seccession. It is not. It is liberation. Which is something completely different. Ethiopia and eritrea have never been one country. Secondly nobody “allowed” Eritrea to be independent. it was rather a result of a combination between a long and bitter armed struggle and a referendum after the military victory over the derg. And eritreans voted overwhelmingly YES to independence. And now the the final decision has been rendered concerning the border between our two countries, the talk of Assab or any other part of Eritrea is nothing but a declaration of war from the groups or individuals who still harbour such thoughts!
Adu Bent,
Your comments are like your screen name bent. Why do you inject such a distressed article for the case as big as this that needs to be addressed in depth by the renowned scholars Ato Messay kebede and Jawar Mohammed. Instead of pointing a finger did you ask your self what inputs did you offer to alleviate the problems in Ethiopia?
This Oromo issue particularly needs to be addressed now and we need every ideas to be forwarded, entertained, discussed and get a solution before the next government is set up as the time is approaching for tplf to go. There are many indications that tplf is rotten internally. We have to encourage people like Jawar and Ato Messay and others to come up with ideas and clear the road ahead of that country so we will not be a laboratory for another two decades or so by oromo or any other factions. My friend Adu Bent, do not get frustrated when ever ideas are coming as for any actions ideas are the foundations. If you are short sighted about seeing beyond the rotten tplf then I am afraid you are recommending the same two decades of anarchy for Ethiopia. So it will be better to know thy self, a short sighted person should not point a finger on those who had a vision beyond the horizon.
Who said that OROMOS are the majority? U guys are crazy.Don’t be full.
Mr. Jalleta!!! Hats off to you, brother. These two gentlemen are doing the right thing what those imbecile leaders huddled together around OLF. This notion of secession has been a sort of affliction to them, a kind of addiction that mutilated their God-given brain for a long time. They are lost cause. What they are dreaming has been this chance of one day seceding ‘Oromia’ from the rest of the fraternal people and become presidents, prime ministers, foreign ministers and aba biyas. What they don’t or rather refuse to understand is the fact that my Oromo people are peace-loving and harmonious people and know who and what caused them the misery. My Oromo people have already figured these connivers from Minnesota out from the outset. Lencho, Dima and aquired names as such these sounds good and that is all about them. Their knowledge of the Oromo people only goes back to the last 130 years. Because they know the fact that if they go back farther than that their version of the history of the Oromo people and territory will lay bare and exposed. I am ashamed of them all that they are considered to be from my proud heritage. I wish they were not even born. Now, I have a question about the claim they made for me and thousands others. Where is that big and long-range heavy gun you told me you had and ready to deal with the goons from Adwa? Boy…Boy…Boy..!!!! What liars!!!!!!
Dear Mr. Messay Kebede,
I have carefully read both of you articles as well as that of Jawar Siraj. Though I may not share all of jawar’s views, I observed that he was trying to be as honest as you could possibly be. In the contrary, you seem to be very desperate to record a political point so that you will prove your heroines to your Habasha peers who are famous for denying the reality on earth and trying to live in dream. You have shown your mastery of playing with words, leaving issues aside.
To substantiate my point, let me just mention one example. I have never read any word about cessation from Jawar’s articles. Neither did I sense any implicit or explicit point that suggests that Jawar supports cessation. As you surely understand, it is not only dishonest to focus all your debate on a point never raised or advocated by your opponent, it is also a proof that, you, like most of your peers, are preaching what you wish; not what you believe or see.
Suggesting that OLF is just about session also misses the point. You are very much aware that that OLF has never said cessation is the only option. However, describing OLF as cessations is the easiest way of dismissing OLF and the issues it raises as insignificant which, which you and your peers never resist using as the first and last debate point.
As Jawar said, I believe, the significance of OLF is long over due. Categorizing every Oromo that has dared to raise any issue about Oromo only helps to extend the life of OLF though it is no more capable of getting out of the self inflicted wounds. My only suggestion is that, lets leave the dying OLF to keep marching to its end and begin talking about issues that help us have a promising future.
Sincerely
Dear Mr. Messay Kebede,
I have carefully read both of you articles as well as that of Jawar Siraj. Though I may not share all of jawar’s views, I observed that he was trying to be as honest as you could possibly be. In the contrary, you seem to be very desperate to record a political point so that you will prove your heroines to your Habasha peers who are famous for denying the reality on earth and trying to live in dream. You have shown your mastery of playing with words, leaving issues aside.
To substantiate my point, let me just mention one example. I have never read any word about cessation from Jawar’s articles. Neither did I sense any implicit or explicit point that suggests that Jawar supports cessation. As you surely understand, it is not only dishonest to focus all your debate on a point never raised or advocated by your opponent, it is also a proof that, you, like most of your peers, are preaching what you wish; not what you believe or see.
Suggesting that OLF is just about session also misses the point. You are very much aware that that OLF has never said cessation is the only option. However, describing OLF as cessations is the easiest way of dismissing OLF and the issues it raises as insignificant which, which you and your peers never resist using as the first and last debate point.
As Jawar said, I believe, the significance of OLF is long over due. Categorizing every Oromo that has dared to raise any issue about Oromo only helps to extend the life of OLF though it is no more capable of getting out of the self inflicted wounds. My only suggestion is that, lets leave the dying OLF to keep marching to its end and begin talking about issues that help us have a promising future.
Sincerely
Good point adubenet. OLF is dying for its beliefs no matter how misguided it seems in our eyes. The country is on the brink of collapse and disintegration and the “good” professor is talking about the importance of having a civilized debate. OLF is a night mare to woyane because it has choosen to fight fire with fire. The coward woyane who never fought but walked in and took power during the confusion hate to confront an armed group. They like to shoot an unarmed civilians who can not shoot back. woyane will eventually be destroyed but not by this so called ” peaceful” struggle and certainly not by fancy words and ” debates” on the net. instead, it is going to be by Ethipians who choose to fight fire with fire. Right now, Jawar is a realist and the professor is an illusionist.
Mr Jalleta
Truly you got proper name it can fits you. I don’t think you gave your self this name on purpose but it looks good on you. Anyway, do You know its meaning ? “Jalleta” means “Crooked” in Amharic xamaamaa (tamama). Ok Mr Jalleta (Crooked) please stop your crooked mentality about Oromo people because you have no right to talk about it. If you had Oromo in your blood, you should know the meaning of Jalleta before you call your self Crooked.
1. In their history,the Oromo people have never been under one political leadership. For the first time, it is TPLF that has created Oromia.
2. Oromos are comprised of mainly muslims, orthodox christian, Lutheran church followers, and Oromo indegeous religion followers. The muslims are the majority.
3. The Oromo land is encircling the Southern Nationalities land. Their is no clear demarcation of borders. Oromo region in Hararge Bale is also sharing un agreed borders with the Somali region. If fact, both Oromia and Somali regions claim Dire Dawa.
CONCLUSION
I do not think that a region created and imposed from above will sustain. The present political unity of the Oromo region created by TPLF will doom to failure. Secondly, the present political game in the horn of Africa is religion, not language. The differences in religions are a big hindurance to Oromo unity. Thirdly, the undemarcated borders between Oromia and many nationalities is another serious problem to create the new Oromia.
Therefore, I recommend that Oromo nationalists come with something better.
Jalleta, stop hiding behind ‘Oromo’ name!
I agree with annonymous; Jawar’s article is honest. Dr Messay is wordy. He is not addressing oromo to win them, but affirming his loyality to habashas. Why doesn’t he write an article why Amaras failed to free themselves of tplf? let us hear him analysing the struggle of Amara, as he does of oromo.
Messay please we need your analysis on Amhara strong political movement and their better ideology you think.Do not use please these slogans “one country”, “one religion” and “one language”.
Jawar’s article has given the anti-Oromo groups the fertile crying & weeping ground. The anti-Oromo creatures are hanging on the OROMIA to hinder her from walking forward, but she is taking the wide steps forwards when leaving the anarchy creatures far away behind. I am sure the time is not far away that the forward walking OROMIA will reach her destination.
Mr Jalleta,
1st, you are not Oromo, and stop using Oromo name!
Who said that OROMOS are the majority? U guys are crazy.Don’t be full.
full is spelt fool.
Try to improve your spelling!
Bone head
The more you write, the more you expose your TPLF agency company. You have no body to fool except these sheep heading to be slaughtered. There are consequences unfolding to take place in near future for these kinds of bigotry. You claim to care about Mother Ethiopia while you’re destroying every inch of our social fabric to achieve your
hidden agenda of AgaziTigre. You insult our nation and nationalities Meles and Reda continue spend sleepless night thinking how to divide the Ethiopian nation. You jump from one corner to the other attacking everyone to undermine Ethiopian freedom of expression, freedom of religion and freedom association. You claim to know what the best is for our country Ethiopian while you affianced into street talk with immature bla… blas….blas. You continue to fool yourself believing you can fool Ethiopian.
Ethiopians know your divisive propaganda between our people (Amharas and Oromos). How do you know these Amharas were killed by OLF? Were you there when this happen? If you were there, what were you doing there? How do you know the names of these people killed by OLF? Tell us your endless lies that you read from the lists of Melese Zenawe media outlet or you were part of the mastermind. Agazi-Tigre orders OPDOs to kill innocent Amahara’s and blames it on OLF. Melese Zenawe strategy was (is) to provoke hatred among Amaharas and Oromos by massacring of Amhara’s and Oromos in different parts of our country so that Tigre’s will have enough time to loot and steal our resources to build and liberate Tigre while we continue argue and fight each other. The Ethiopians know the divisiveness of TPLF and Reda. This heartless Tigre’s continued to implement the same divisiveness among other tribes. There are your people (Tigre) who committed genocide against on our brother in Gambella and Somalis in Ogden.
Getachew Reda, I am glad to read your agony!!!
We are coming after you with full force.