PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over John McCain in both Gallup likely voter models, according to Oct. 27-29 Gallup Poll Daily tracking. In the traditional model, which defines likely voters based on current voting intention and past voting behavior, Obama holds a 50% to 45% lead. In the expanded model, in which only current voting intentions are considered, his lead is 51% to 44%.
As in any election, the final outcome, in large part, hinges on who turns out to vote and who does not. If all registered voters participated, Obama would probably win comfortably. He leads McCain by 50% to 42% in the latest estimate of registered voter preferences, and has averaged a nine percentage point lead since Oct. 1. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Both likely voter models currently show a slightly closer race than is evident in the registered voter estimate. Obama has never trailed in either likely voter model since Gallup began tracking likely voter preferences in early October, averaging a four-point lead using the traditional model and an eight-point lead using the expanded model.
Just five days remain until Election Day, and McCain and the Republicans are campaigning hard in key states to try and change Obama’s lead. Late comebacks are rare, but have occurred, including Harry Truman in 1948 and Ronald Reagan in 1980. — Jeff Jones
(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)