As the World watches as a full scale war threatens to erupt in Somalia, The Zenawi regime had better watch its Northern Border With Eritrea. The countries which have already fought one border war could find themselves in another if war in Somalia breaks out.
With several parties including the United Nations and the Transitional Government in Somalia making charges that Eritrea has been supplying the Union of Islamic Courts with both troops and arms. There have been several high profile incidents along the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea. These include defections by members of the Ethiopian Army and allegations of people smuggling across the border going both ways.
History tells us that a country fighting on two fronts does not do well. The French found out the hard way under Napoleon, Germany learned that lesson twice in 40 years and in the US the States that formed the Confederacy lost a conflict that had several fronts. So history does not bode well for the Zenawi Government.
 So there are several factors that could help decide if the Zenawi Government is successful. First is will the Oromo Stand loyal to Addis Ababa or will they join the Islamist Forces as they try to unite Somalia under a Islamic Government. Second is how many regional neighbors will play a role in the conflict? A report by the US State Department concluded that up to a dozen nations could get involved in this conflict. this will make the DRC war of the late 90s feel like a skirmish. Uganda has a debate going on in Parliament about whether or not they will send forces under an AU Mandate. What Kenya does is anybody’s guess.
There are two countries that could intervene if Necessary and they are the United States and France. Both erstwhile allies share a base in Djibouti. Both countries have rapid reaction forces stationed there and both nations have Naval and Air Assets in close Proximity. Any intervention may be on the short term due to the extent of the current deployment of the US Military worldwide.
So right now whether we like the actions and abuses of the Zenawi Government it may be in the best interests of the West to aid Ethiopia. The question of what concessions that the West will get from Addis Ababa may be done behind closed doors for now. But they will need to be done. And lip service to Democracy is not acceptable under any condition.
The author is a contributing editor to www.americanchronicle.com and comments on US Policy in Africa and Human Rights. He can be contacted at [email protected]