The Indian Ocean Newsletter (ION), whose sources include French intelligence officials, has just published an analysis of what is next for the Meles regime in Ethiopia. The ION agrees with Ethiopian Review’s prediction that the genocidal regime is now setting its sight on Asmara after emptying the rubber stamp parliament in Addis Ababa of any opposition. The following is posted from the current edition of ION:
Zenawi wants to turn the page on 2005
For Several months Prime Minister genocidal dictator Meles Zenawi has been actively working to protect his position in the 23 May general election to turn the page on the insult in 2005 when the opposition won the poll in the capital. He succeeded beyond his hopes: the turnout was reported to be a massive 90% of the 32 million electors registered, with 95% of them voting for an EPRDF (governing coalition) candidate. The opposition was annihilated by this vote. The federal parliament was already a chamber to rubber-stamp government decisions; it will now become a place where no voice of discord is tolerated. The systematic intimidation of opponents and the widespread usage of State institutions and funds for the EPRDF election campaign are the main reasons explaining this outcome. Nevertheless, by closing the door on the legal opposition, Meles Zenawi is de facto putting his regime on track for a one-party State. The only people to be pleased by the outcome will be the armed opposition, which thus sees the justification of its prediction that any attempt at legal change in Ethiopia is doomed to failure.
Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde
Sophisticated and suave when he is in international circles, a supporter of the free-market when it comes to the economy, Meles Zenawi has remained very inflexible on matters of domestic policy. He has been reinforced in this view by his experience in the 2005 election, when he found that giving lee-way to the opposition mainly profited the latter. Since then, he has constantly repeated that he would not renew the experience and putting his money where his mouth is, has done all he could to restrict the opposition’s political space. International donors are generally little aware of this “dark” side of the Ethiopian prime minister, which regularly makes its appearance in meetings among EPRDF dignitaries that he generally chairs in an authoritarian manner. In one of them, at the beginning of May, attended by several ministers (Addisu Legesse, seyoum Mesfin, Bereket Simon, Tefera Walwa, and others), he accused the legal opposition parties (Medrek and OFDM) of being infiltrated by illegal organizations (Ginbot 7, OLF, EPRP) and had called for them to be investigated. He even went so far as to say the same about ANDM (the Amhara component of the EPRDF), some thing which Tefera Walwa opposed stating that the difference between Meles Zenawi’s TPLF and ANDM did not mean the latter was an opposition Trojan horse.
Intimidated and humiliated opponents
Since the vote on 23 May, the prime minister has threatened everyone who dared to criticize the conditions and results of the general election. In his view, the warning is equally valid for the opposition leaders and for European Union observers. The African Union observers as usual had nothing to report on the elections they observe. Anyone considering calling for the vote to be invalidated was warned that he risks imprisonment. But on the other hand, Meles is fully aware that the non-re-election of most of the opposition leaders will give his regime a major problem. Consequently, secret negotiations are underway to give the opposition a handful of seats. EPRDF representatives contacted Merera Gudina to promise him a recount and to be elected to parliament if he distanced himself from the other opponents. He has so far declined this offer. A post in government was similarly promised to Lidetu Ayalew. For his part, fearing arrest, Beyene Petros asked during a Medrek meeting on 24 May that the opposition coalition no contest any election results until they have sufficient evidence of irregularities.
Heading for Asmara
Meles Zenawi will no doubt not leave matters there. He will try to push home his advantage, not only against the legal opposition but also against the various Ethiopian rebel groups that are waging sporadic armed struggle against his regime (OLF, ONLF), backed by Eritrea. That is probably the reason the EPRDF leaders keep insisting at the moment that an Eritrean opposition conference that had been on the cards for years should finally be held in Addis Ababa in July. Their idea is to put the conditions in place as soon as possible that could lead to a future overthrow of President Isaias Afwerki.