By Paulos Milkias
I do not believe that Ethiopia’s dictator Meles Zenawi is going to quit. He is simply posturing. Here are reasons why?
An official who is determined to quit will not qualify it by another possibility. An excellent example to announce quitting: “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president.” This, as you know, was President Lyndon B. Johnson’s announcement on March 31, 1968, after the setbacks of the Tet Offensive and the violent student demonstrations against the war in Vietnam made his life unbearable.
Mr. Meles is saying he has decided to quit but will respect his party’s decision regarding it. Anybody knows that neither the current TPLF leadership nor what remains of the EPRDF officialdom can survive for long without Mr. Meles’ political machinations. What he is saying is, I will say I will quit and my party caucus will put pressure on me through parliament. Then I will have little choice but to respect their wishes!
Second, he says he will quit as Prime Minister but will remain as the party leader. That is impossible in the present political framework in Ethiopia. If he has to resign as Prime Minister, he also has to resign from the Party leadership. Ethiopia has adapted a parliamentary democracy. In parliamentary democracy, the party leader is automatically the Prime Minister. Do not forget that the Front Benchers are selected and directed by the party leader. The Back Benchers also seek direct guidance from the party leader whose dictates they follow without fail.
Mr. Meles’ posturing is more in tune with that of Gamal Abdel Nasser. When the Egyptian President’s army was decimated in the Six Day War by June 9, 1967, Nasser tendered his resignation as President in a televised broadcast only to “change his mind” when his decision was “rejected” by Egypt’s National Assembly totally controlled by his National Democratic Party. So, come 2010 elections, rest assured that history will repeat itself.
(The writer, Dr Paulos Milkias, can be reached at [email protected])