It’s all even in Ohio. The final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day shows John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 49% of the vote. Last week, Obama held a modest lead in the Buckeye State.
Obama leads among those who have already voted while McCain is projected to pick up more votes from those who show up at the polls on Tuesday.
However, among the six Battleground States polled in the final days of Election 2008, Ohio is one of the two states where McCain gained ground (the other was Florida). This helps explain why the campaigns have had such a strong presence in the state during the closing days of Election 2008. In the last six Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Ohio polls, Obama and McCain have been within two points of each other five times. Neither man has reached the 50% level of support in any of the past six Ohio surveys.
McCain attracts 64% of the vote from Evangelical Christians, 53% from other Protestants, 53% from Catholics, and just 28% from everybody else.
Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Ohio voters, Obama by 50%.
Little change was found this week in Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia. Obama now leads in two of the six key battleground states while the candidates are tied or within a point of each other in four. At one level, that’s an improvement for McCain. Last week, he was even in just two states while trailing in four.
But while it’s an improvement for McCain, this week’s results don’t alter the underlying dynamic of the race. All six of these battleground states were Republican states in 2004, and McCain probably needs to win all six to capture the White House.
Ohio, with 20 Electoral College votes, is a critical swing state, especially for McCain who is battling down to the wire in several traditionally Republican states. George W. Bush carried the Buckeye State in 2000 and again in 2004, after Democrat Bill Clinton won it in the two previous elections.
Ohio is also currently embroiled in legal controversy because about 200,000 of 666,000 voters who have registered in the state since the first of the year listed driver’s license or Social Security numbers that don’t match records in other government databases.
Eight Ohio Polls that are out on Monday, Nov. 3
| Poll | McCain | Obama |
| Rasmussen | 49% | 49% |
| Strategic Vision | 48% | 46% |
| Reuters/Zogby | 44% | 50% |
| Public Policy Polling | 48% | 50% |
| Quinnipiac | 43% | 50% |
| Survey USA | 46% | 48% |
| Ohio Poll | 46% | 52% |
| Columbus Disptach | 46% | 52% |
| Source: Ohio Poll, SUSA, Columbus Dispatch, Ramussen Reports, Strategic Vision, PPP, Quinnipiac, Reuters/Zogby |