PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Friday through Sunday finds Barack Obama with a five percentage point lead over John McCain, 50% to 45%, in the presidential preferences of likely voters using Gallup’s traditional model. He enjoys a more ample 10-point lead, 53% to 43%, using Gallup’s expanded model.
Today’s traditional likely voters result, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 24-26, is identical to that reported on Sunday. Obama’s five-point advantage falls at the midpoint of the lead he has held with this voter model over the past nine days, ranging from three to seven points.
Obama’s 10-point lead among expanded likely voters matches his largest leads on this basis. It also ties his standing among all registered voters, who now favor Obama over McCain, 52% to 42%. (To view the complete registered voter trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
There are now eight days left before the election. History offers few examples of a trailing candidate mounting a successful comeback in the last week of the campaign. Gallup Poll presidential election trends since 1952 point to 1980 as the only case in which a candidate (Ronald Reagan) was behind in the Gallup Poll a week before the election, but went on to win the presidency. In 2000, Al Gore overcame a pre-election poll deficit in the final week to win the popular vote — but not the Electoral College.
Campaign and political events occurred in both the 1980 and 2000 races which, arguably, could explain the late breaking shifts. Without such a “you know it when you see it” issue or event emerging in the next few days, a McCain victory would be without precedent. — Lydia Saad
(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)