PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Tuesday through Thursday shows Barack Obama with a 50%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.
This three-day rolling average includes one full night of interviewing after Wednesday night’s final presidential debate, and shows little significant change as a result of the debate at this point. Obama has now returned to 50% of the vote among registered voters, while McCain has been stable at 43% of the vote for three consecutive reports. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Gallup’s likely voter scenarios show differing patterns. If turnout in this year’s election follows traditional patterns by which the voting electorate skews towards those who usually vote as well as those who are interested in this year’s election, the race is a close one, with Obama holding on to a two percentage point margin, 49% to 47%. If a much higher than usual proportion of new voters turn out, thus increasing the potential impact of groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities, Obama has a six-point lead, 51% to 45%. — Frank Newport
(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)