By Yohannes Kifle
For the past 13 years, the Woyanes have become so predictable when they are in a political quagmire. The recent political uprising in the Middle East and in the Northern part of Africa has Zenawi’s regime so concerned creating political diversion that is further from the reality was crucial in an attempt to engross mainly the people of Ethiopia and, if anyone is listening, the rest of the world.
Of course, Zenawi’s regime has no respect for what his own citizens think. The latest political stint is pretty much staged for the donors he can’t afford to upset since his survival is depending on what these donors think of him. One must keep in mind that the regime is so terrified of the potential up rise and measures to squash it must be justified ahead of time. One must also keep in mind that the regime is pretty good at taking survival measures since it has no principle of fundamental politics to lean on. It is that lack of core of principle the regime is suffering from that will ultimately facilitate its demise. The lack of principle of fundamental politics is a recipe for disaster as it has been witnessed in the past. The regime in Ethiopia is no different than the others with same deficiencies; however, what makes this regime unique is the fact that it receives unwavering support from the West for its unique ability of providing what the West needs. Perhaps, the West deserves share of the blame. In addition, the West needs to evaluate its policy towards the regime in Ethiopia and be on the right side of history, which ultimately benefits the West.
As mentioned above, the latest political stints by the regime were targeting two main elements: national security and economic growth. These two elements were brought to the surface with the assumption that they would create the type of political distraction the regime was hoping for. Unfortunately for the regime, any political stint comes with its own price.
National security:
In the name of national security, the regime was forced to bring Eritrea in this equation with the assumption that any mention of “a threat from Eritrea” will galvanize the nation. This may be true in 1998 -2000. Today, Ethiopians are more educated of what had transpired since the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea broke out. Moreover, Ethiopians are aware of the fact that legally, Eritrea had won the border issue fair and square. The 2002 decision by Hague took the air out of those who were beating the war drum to recover access to the sea. Though the regime in Ethiopia is not officially advocating the return of Assab, the thought process is that by creating the possibility of waging war with Eritrea, potential political capital could be gained, and will ultimately conciliate the anticipated potential threat from civil disobedience that is similar to what had transpired in the Middle East and North Africa. To the regime’s disappointment, the reaction from the vast majority of Ethiopians, including those in Diaspora was extremely negative of the war monger attitude of the regime.
Every time the regime in Ethiopia chooses to show its arrogance about its military superiority it admits its weakness ignorantly. Back in 2000 after the war was over and crowning itself as a winner, the regime couldn’t manage to hide how terrified it was of the strength of Eritrea’s military capacity. It was for that valid reason the regime asked guarantee from the West and the institutions that were involved in bringing peace between these two countries. The latest military bravado, from the regime’s Prime Minister, to invade Eritrea was also a message to the opposition groups who are currently waging internal war with the regime. This message was spawned out of fear.
The Grand Millennium Dam:
The regime’s infatuation to building a dam has been a discussion for quite a while. However, the magnitude of this project is so humongous some doubt the project would be feasible anytime soon due to financial reasons. The regime is banking on the west to assume the bulk of the financial responsibility. In addition, the regime is also taking advantage of this thrill-seeking project as way of communicating with the Diaspora and enticing them with potential investment opportunity hoping to gain political capital. Again, this also failed miserably as it became evident all over the United States where the regime tried to hold these meetings with the Diaspora this past weekend.
Given the regime’s past record, major projects such as the grand millennium dam were used to divert the political attention of the people of Ethiopia from war, economic and political crisis. In 1999, the regime boasted that “merkato” was supposedly to be bought by a Malaysian company for Six billion dollars. During that period of time, the regime also bragged about a 1.7 billion dollars investment on gas pipeline project connecting Ethiopia and Sudan. Of course, no one forgets the empty promises the regime was making about exporting power to Africa while the city of Addis Ababa was suffering from power shortage just about every other day.
Last,
As mentioned above, the political reverberation the regime in Ethiopia has created in the name of “national security” and “Economic growth” has produced no political dividend. Oddly, the regime bankrupted politically on both elements. The war drum against Eritrea was rejected by Ethiopians, which exposed the regime’s vulnerability should these two countries confront each other militarily. Furthermore, the regime credibility in front of the International community (those who matter) will further be damaged. The “economic growth” fiasco that was supposedly to be used as a conduit to establish a relationship with Diaspora with the hope to capitalize politically proved to be a disaster. If anything, this political miscalculation by the regime gives the Diaspora the energy it was looking for. One doesn’t anticipate the regime to try to coddling again with the Diaspora any time soon; however, one will not rule out this regime’s possible war adventure against Eritrea as desperate times call for desperate measures. The Weyanes are indeed desperate.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])