EDITOR’S NOTE: This could be the beginning of the end of the Woyanne vampire regime. The people of Ethiopia stand in solidarity with the brave Somali freedom fighters. Ethiopian freedom fighters such as EPPF, ONLF, OLF, and TPDM will finish off Woyanne once they get their acts together — hopefully soon.

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By Andrew Cawthorne

NAIROBI (Reuters) – Nearly two years after being driven from Mogadishu, Islamists have re-taken swathes of south Somalia and may have their sights again on the capital.

The insurgents’ push is being led by Al Shabaab, or “Youth” in Arabic, the most militant in a wide array of groups opposed to the Somali government and military backers from Ethiopia, an ally in Washington’s “War on Terror”.

“Shabaab are winning. They have pursued a startlingly successful two-pronged strategy — chase all the internationals from the scene, and shift tactics from provocation to conquest,” said a veteran Somali analyst in the region.

“Before it was ‘hit-and-run’ guerrilla warfare. Now it’s a case of ‘we’re here to stay’,” he added, noting Shabaab was “flooded with money” from foreign backers.

The Islamist insurgency since early 2007, the latest instalment in Somalia’s 17-year civil conflict, has worsened one of Africa’s worst humanitarian crises and fomented instability around the already chronically volatile Horn region.

Shabaab’s advances are galling to Washington, which says the group is linked to al Qaeda and has put it on its terrorism list. Western security services have long worried about Somalia becoming a haven for extremists, though critics — and the Islamists — say that threat has been fabricated to disguise U.S. aims to keep control, via Ethiopia, in the region.

Some compare the Somali quagmire to Iraq in character, if not scale, given its appeal to jihadists, the involvement of foreign troops and the tactics used by the rebels.

In August, in its most significant grab of a gradual territorial encroachment, Shabaab spearheaded the takeover of Kismayu, a strategic port and south Somalia’s second city.

This month, its threats to shoot down planes have largely paralysed Mogadishu airport. And in recent days, its fighters have been targeting African peacekeepers.

“The only question is ‘what next?” said a diplomat, predicting Shabaab would next seek to close Mogadishu port and take control of Baidoa town, the seat of parliament.

Analysts say Islamists or Islamist-allied groups now control most of south Somalia, with the exception of Mogadishu, Baidoa where parliament is protected by Ethiopian Woyanne troops, and Baladwayne near the border where Addis Ababa garrisons soldiers.

That is a remarkable turnaround from the end of 2006, when allied Somali-Ethiopian Woyanne troops chased the Islamists out of Mogadishu after a six-month rule of south Somalia, scattering them to sea, remote hills and the Kenyan border.

The Islamists regrouped to begin an insurgency that has killed nearly 10,000 civilians. Military discipline, grassroots political work, youth recruitment and an anti-Ethiopian Woyanne rallying cry have underpinned their return, analysts say.

With the Islamists split into many rival factions, it is impossible to tell if an offensive against Mogadishu is imminent. Analysts say Shabaab and other Islamist militants may not want an all-out confrontation with Ethiopian troops, preferring to wait until Addis Ababa withdraws forces.

WORLD “NUMB” TO SOMALIA

Ethiopian Woyanne Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is fed up with the human, political and financial cost of his Somalia intervention, but knows withdrawal could hasten the fall of Mogadishu.

The insurgents may also resist the temptation to launch an offensive on Mogadishu until their own ranks are united.

“Opposition forces at the moment are internally debating whether or not it’s time for a major push,” the diplomat said.

Meanwhile, the rebels attack government and Ethiopian Woyanne targets in the city seemingly at will. Of late, they have also been hitting African Union (AU) peacekeepers, who number just 2,200, possibly to warn the world against more intervention.

Estimates vary but experts think Ethiopia has about 10,000 soldiers in Somalia, the government about 10,000 police and soldiers. Islamist fighter numbers are fluid but may match that.

The Islamists’ growth in power has gone largely unnoticed outside Somalia by all but experts. For the wider world, Somalia’s daily news of bombs, assassinations, piracy and kidnappings has blurred into an impression of violence-as-usual.

Even this week’s horrors, including shells slicing up 30 civilians in a market, registered barely a blip outside.

“The world has grown numb to Somalia’s seemingly endless crises,” said analyst Ken Menkhaus.

But “much is new this time, and it would be a dangerous error of judgement to brush off Somalia’s current crisis as more of the same,” he said. “Seismic political, social, and security changes are occurring in the country.”

The United Nations has been pushing a peace agreement in neighbouring Djibouti that would see a ceasefire, a pull-back of Ethiopian Woyanne troops — the insurgents’ main bone of contention — then some sort of power-sharing arrangement.

Diplomats see that as the main hope for stability, and moderates on both sides support it in principle. But Islamist fighters on the ground have rejected the process, and negotiators failed to agree on details last week.

A U.S. expert on Somalia, John Prendergast, said the world had taken its eyes off the conflict at its peril.

“Somalia truly is the one place in Africa where you have a potential cauldron of recruitment and extremism that, left to its own devices, will only increase in terms of the danger it presents to the region, and to American and Western interests.”

One effect of the conflict impinging on the outside world is rampant piracy off Somalia. Gangs have captured some 30 boats this year, and still hold a dozen ships with 200 or so hostages.

The violence is also impeding relief groups from helping Somalia’s several million hungry. Foreign investors, interested in principle in Somalia’s hydrocarbon and fishing resources, barely give the place a second thought in the current climate.

(gfpc) The German government is increasing its financial support for Ethiopia by 40 Percent despite strong accusations raised against that country by human rights organizations. This was announced by the foreign ministry in Addis Ababa following last week’s negotiations between the governments of Germany and Ethiopia. The German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development will allocate 96 million Euros over the next three years – one of the ministry’s largest development budget subventions. For years the Ethiopian government has been heavily criticized for committing crimes against humanity. After coming to power in 2005 through electoral fraud, the government ordered the shooting of hundreds of demonstrators. It is still being accused of torture and summary executions. Numerous opponents and independent journalists were forced to flee the country. Recent reports have accused the Ethiopian army of kidnappings and the murder of civilians in the East of the country. The development budget increase corresponds to Ethiopia’s geo-strategic significance, which the German ambassador to Addis Ababa particularly stressed in a strategy paper. As a western ally, the Ethiopian army is also involved in the war in Somalia. Ethiopian soldiers are being trained in Germany.
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40 Percent Increase

As the foreign ministry in Addis Ababa announced, the German-Ethiopian government negotiations ended last week with a new agreement on German development subventions. The German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) pledges 96 million Euros covering the next three years – one of the largest subventions granted by the ministry. Ethiopia is one of BMZ’s “Priority Partner Countries”. In government negotiations in March 2005, Ethiopia opened its doors to hundreds of German specialists, who have been working since, under the guidance of the BMZ and its front organizations, in key positions in the Ethiopian economy and administration, assuring Berlin substantial influence.[1] Already in 2005, Berlin pledged 80 million Euros for the following 3 year period. Only 69 million were actually paid because the European Union had imposed financial limitations because of Ethiopia being accused of crimes against humanity.[2] The subventions pledged last week amount to an increase of 40 Percent.[3]

Overshadowed

Human rights organizations’ strong accusations have overshadowed the intensification of German-Ethiopian cooperation since it began in 2005. The accusations commenced already two months after the government negotiations were ended in May 2005, when the government was only able to survive parliamentary elections by committing massive electoral fraud. The ensuing protests were suppressed with brutal force. By the end of that year, the number of demonstrators killed by Ethiopian repressive forces had been estimated at around 100 – obviously an error. An Ethiopian parliamentarian committee of inquiry discovered that 193 people were killed and 765 wounded. But in the final report, submitted in November 2006, the committee claimed it could not find evidence of the use of excessive force by the repressive authorities. This is not surprising. After having refused to sign this report in the presence of Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi, both chairmen of the committee, fearing for their lives, fled the country.[4]

Departures and Arrivals

Whereas a growing number of opponents and independent journalists are fleeing the country,[5] more and more German specialists are arriving in Addis Ababa on behalf of German development organizations. Since 2005, Ethiopia is given – by far – the highest priority job offers on the list of the Association for Technical Cooperation (“Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit,” GTZ) and of the Center for International Migration and Development (“Centrum für Internationale Migration und Entwicklung”, CIM). Both organizations are implementing the government accords of 2005 and are holding several hundred key positions in this East African country’s economy and administration. Berlin is ignoring the human rights organizations’ protests against politically motivated arrests, torture, maltreatment and summary executions at the hands of Ethiopian repressive forces. In the fall of 2005 the state financed Institute of African Affairs (IAA) in Hamburg renounced its report critical of Addis Ababa.[6] The German government is granting nearly uncontested support to the Ethiopian regime.

Cannot Be Negotiated

A complaint of the CDU/CSU caucus of the German Bundestag in March 2008 has been until now somewhat of an exception. But the complaint is not of torture, previously alleged by Amnesty International, but of the jamming of state financed Deutsche Welle and Voice of America radio stations. “The right to free speech and information is a non-negotiable fundamental right,” affirmed the speaker for cultural and media policy of the CDU/CSU caucus in the German Bundestag regarding the intolerable jamming of radio programs in the service of western foreign policy.[7]

Mutual Alliance

While ignoring the issue of human rights, the German Ethiopia policy is carefully safeguarding its foreign policy interests based upon Ethiopia’s strategic importance, which has been documented in detail in an October 2006 report by Claus Dieter Knoop, the German Ambassador in Addis Ababa (german-foreign-policy.com reported [8]). According to the report, this East African nation is playing a “strategic role” for the precarious water supply in North East Africa: Four-fifths of the Nile’s water originates from sources in Ethiopian. Given the fact that Ethiopia has a substantial number of Christians, it is also placed in the role of a front line state vis-à-vis the Arab peninsula. But it is the protection of the maritime commercial routes off the East-African coast that is of “special German interest”, according to Knoop. This immense importance is underlined by the deployment of the German navy off the Horn of Africa.[9] For a year and a half, Ethiopian troops have been trying to help a pro-western “government” in Mogadishu to take control over the coastal nation of Somalia, showing that Addis Ababa seeks not only regional hegemony for itself but is also willing to serve western interests. The alliance between Ethiopia and the West – including the USA – is a sustainable mutual alliance.

Conspiracy of Silence

The fact that human rights organizations have been strongly criticizing the Ethiopian army’s warfare for months seems to be of little importance. Already last fall, Human Rights Watch declared that “by widely and indiscriminately bombarding highly populated areas of Mogadishu with rockets, mortars and artillery” Ethiopian troops were violating international law and have been “deliberately shooting and summarily executing civilians.”[10] Human Rights Watch recently published a new report that is strongly criticizing the Ethiopian army’s activities in the eastern part of the country. In its battle against rebels in that region, Ethiopian troops have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, subjected civilians to torture and executed at least 150 of them, the organization writes. The West is guilty of a “conspiracy of silence around these crimes.”[11]

Threatening to Ban

It is not yet clear how long human rights organizations can continue their research in Ethiopia therefore breaking this silence. President Meles is preparing a law aimed at heavily restricting NGO activities with a threat of being banned. If the law is passed after the parliamentary summer recess, “the activities of aid organizations would be restricted if not made impossible,” a speaker of Caritas International said in a discussion with german-foreign-policy.com. This would also apply to human rights organizations. In the course of the recently concluded negotiations, the German government objected to this projected law but still pledged new subventions – a clear sign to Meles that Berlin will not seriously resist.

Arms Exports

Despite Ethiopian war crimes, Germany will not only continue furnishing financial development subventions, but also maintain the training program for the Ethiopian military, which began in 2002. The most recent example is the participation of an Ethiopian staff officer in the current “Training course for general/admiral grade staff with international participation” (LGAI) at the Bundeswehr’s Leadership Academy in Hamburg. According to the most recent arms export report, not only small arms but even, for the first time, communication equipment is being exported – with official approval – to Ethiopia, despite the war the Ethiopian army is waging not only in Somalia but against rebels at home. It is not yet known whether there is direct contact between the Ethiopian invading army in Somalia and the German war ships cruising off the Somali coast.

[1] see also Key positions and Berater
[2] Vorrang für Menschenrecht und Meinungsfreiheit in Äthiopien; Pressemitteilung der CDU/CSU-Bundestagsfraktion 17.03.2008
[3] Germany pledges 96 million euro to Ethiopia; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia 18.06.2008
[4] amnesty international Deutschland: Jahresbericht 2007. Äthiopien. amnesty schreibt über die Proteste: “Die meisten Opfer waren von Kugeln der Armee oder der Polizei getroffen worden. In einigen Fällen hatte man ihnen in den Rücken geschossen, als sie zu fliehen versuchten, andere waren offenbar von Heckenschützen ins Visier genommen worden. Mindestens 17 Insassen des Kaliti-Gefängnisses, überwiegend wegen gewöhnlicher Straftaten einsitzende Untersuchungshäftlinge, aber auch einige politische Gefangene, waren im Zuge der Ereignisse wegen mutmaßlicher Unterstützung der Demonstranten oder wegen Fluchtversuchs in ihren Zellen erschossen worden.”
[5] Dies dokumentieren ausführlich die Jahresberichte von Amnesty International und Human Rights Watch sowie viele Berichte weiterer Menschenrechtsorganisationen.
[6] see also Indispensable Rights
[7] Vorrang für Menschenrecht und Meinungsfreiheit in Äthiopien; Pressemitteilung der CDU/CSU-Bundestagsfraktion 17.03.2008
[8] see also Sonderbericht
[9] see also Deutsche Marine steht vor Kommando im Indischen Ozean, Ölversorgung, Sonderbericht and Seemacht (I)
[10] Somalia: Kriegsverbrechen in Mogadischu; Human Rights Watch 13.08.2007. See also Stabilizing Factor
[11] Ethiopia: Army Commits Executions, Torture, and Rape in Ogaden; Pressemitteilung von Human Rights Watch 12.06.2008

By Ewnetu from Los Angeles

I read your letter to Senator Russ Feingold, Representative Donald Payne and to all Members of Congress of the United States.

Let me examine the pertinent points contained in the letter, discarding the irrelevant, in order to build-up your case, with respect to the proposed Bill S 3457 by Senators Feingold and Leahy, and the earlier Bill HR 2003 that passed in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Basically, your opposition to the Bill is based on the assumption that it will lead to the loss of sovereignty; hence Ethiopia will be a “protectorate” of the United States. Your assertion is farfetched.

The question is whose sovereignty? The people or the ruling elite? Which of the two? The people of Ethiopia do not have sovereignty throughout their history. Sovereignty is the prerogative of the ruling elite, in our case, Meles Zenawi, Sebhat Nega and Berket Simon, who are the sovereign power in the exercise of it. Virtually, sovereignty rests within the ruling circle domain.

Mr. Tecola, if the U.S. Senators genuinely stood on the side of the people, unlike the Executive branch of the U. S. government, what is the harm? The Bill will attempt to restrain and curb the tyranny and abuse of power by Meles and Company.

Have you forgotten the post-2005 election crackdown on the position and supporters by the regime? What lesson can be drawn from the consequences of that horrendous episode? In the uneven balance of power between the government and the opposition, as well as the uneven level of playing field and rule of the game, you said, “the problems Ethiopians have with the government of Meles Zenawi is the business of Ethiopians, and solving our problems and fighting our fights by ourselves,” than seeking external aid. Such a cursory remark is hallow and empty rhetoric. TPLF itself came to power with considerable external aid. It is sustained by external aid. And there are many examples in the world. Your TPLF supporters, including yourself paraded in the corridors of the U.S. Congress to influence the position of the U.S government against the Mengistu regime.

Let me be clear, that I have supported the 1974 popular revolution, but I was not a supporter, or sympathizer of the Mengistu regime, then, nor for EPLF/TPLF either. What is the difference between Tecola Hagos and AL Mariam and his associates? Infact, the latter is on the side of history.

Being self-righteous, you are of course; negative to examine the other side objectively. To be fair, one key aspect of a difference between the two regimes, — the constitution of Ethiopia under Mengistu was voted by the people in a referendum, while the constitution of Melse Zenawi was voted by hand picked members of the National Assembly, the people of Ethiopia. In the process, the people of Ethiopia were excluded. Now, Mr. Tecola, your concern in the guise of sovereignty, is the threatening sovereign power of the troika, Zenawi, Nega and Simon. Real sovereignty is the prerogative of the ruling elite of TPLF, not the people of Ethiopia.

Anther point, Why are you posturing as an Ethiopian super patriot? Or perhaps a true Tigrean patriot? Are you trying? To save Melese and Company, in order to preserve the Tigrean hegemony over the rest of the Ethiopian people? Your patriotism about greater Ethiopia, which it was historically is, a veil to conceal your narrow Tigrean nationalism. It amazing fashion, you sound jingoistic. Why all this fuss? Fundamentally, the passing of the Bill [if it pass], in the Senate will facilitate in establishing some of the eight points enunciated by the Coalition for Unity and Democracy [CUD], now Unity Justice and Democracy Party], and other leaders lead, to “an independent judiciary, the media, the Electoral Board and the role of the armed forces/ security, and other demands, will not undermine the interest of the Ethiopian people. On the contrary, it will lay down the groundwork for building democratic institutions, to insure liberty, democracy and the rule of lows. The people of Ethiopia seek freedom to choose their leaders. They want to think and assemble and to express their views freely. They must be free first to be imbued with sovereign rights that come with all the attributes of a sovereign nation. Unfortunately, they are not free now. It requires enormous sacrifice and struggle. You are indulging in fantasy and abstract theory that has no relevance to the people. The relevance of sovereignty is to the ruling circle, which are the beneficiary of it, mainly, Meles Zenawi, Sebhat Nega and Berket Simon.

The seventeen years of suppression and subjugation of the people is all there to see, coupled with poverty, disease and hunger. What should be clear to any impartial, reasonable and rational human being is, in the 21st century, the people of Ethiopia are not citizens. They are subjects of TPLF/EPRDF rule. It must also be clear, that there is a distinction between `state` and `nation`.

Mr. Tecola, why do you really care about the survival of Meles and Company? It seems that you want to circle the wagon with your Tigrean compatriot. That is your real concern. This phenomenon is a curse to be avoided, not only by the Tigreans, but all the different nationalities of Ethiopia. It is a manifestation of backwardness and reactionary outlook. You deliberately grouped the oppositions along with Ethiopia’s historic enemies, such us Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Syria etc… this is a misrepresentation and distortion, devoid of objective reality. What you are asking the opposition is to surrender to the Melse` rule. It is tantamount to that, and the message is clear.

The problem with you, as stated in your book, Democratization? Ethiopia [1991-1994] “My views are rather more inspirational, rendered from the heart than analytical.” I will add that your brain is subordinated to your heart; hence you are inconsistent, irrational, contradictory and arrogant. Sometimes, you have the tendency to jump into the river against the tide and vise versa, without principle and character of integrity. Do you remember what you wrote in your web site a few years ago, that Ethiopians are incapable of resolving their problems, and as result, they are killing each others? Thus, as an alternative, you have suggested a “bold vision”, [As you put it] that Ethiopia to be ruled by foreign nationals, specifically, American and British academics, including Bill Gate, one of the richest people in the world, for the transition period, until the Ethiopians matured with a democratic political culture. How does your “bold vision” Correspond with your concern for the loss of “sovereignty” and Ethiopia as a “protectorate” of the U.S.?

Remember also what you stated, in your book, “what is in existence at this moment in Ethiopia is the concentration of power in the hands of a tiny group of people, a government controlled and run at will by Meles Zenawi and his close associates with no meaningful accountability”, and further more you stated that “what remained in power since 1991 is an illegitimate power structure, a reestablishment of Feudalism and autocracy dressed in new symbols with the descendants of yesterdays Feudal warlords as the main actors in this sickening political tragedy”.

How about now? Have you detected a paradigm shift? Or is the pendulum swinging back for reconciliation with Melse, in anticipation of a reward to heal your wounded ego, pride and ambition? You have already indicated in your letter, that you “are urging and advice the Ethiopian government to seek new initiatives”, concerning the impending Bill as well as the Eritrea issue in the U.S. Senate. Along the way, you are also pushing a new idea that the “Ethiopian Ambassador in Washington D.C. has failed in his mission to protect the sovereignty and dignity of Ethiopia”. To be exact, you are seeking the removal of the Ambassador and the sovereignty and dignity of the elite in power.

Finally, you have forwarded another incredible suggestion that “AL Mariam and his associates, including Senator Feingold and Representative Payne to be prosecuted with criminal charges under the Ethiopian penal code for undermining the economic vital interest and sovereignty of Ethiopia”.

This is a strange and absurd suggestion, and it seems that you are mentally unstable. I suggest you need a clinical psychiatric evaluation.