By Tony Okerafor

One of the big African stories of the last eight days or so has been the holding of key parliamentary elections in one of the continent’s most populous countries. Ethiopia has been such a major player in not just regional politics, but, equally world affairs, not least since it openly chose to back the United States and other Western governments in their global against terror.

So, when, only last weekend, 32 million Ethiopian flocked polling-stations across the country, several interested parties around the world waited anxiously to see how the exercise was going to pan out. Was it going to be better than the parliamentary elections of five years ago, after which all hell went loose? Would it be fair, free and transparent? Was their any chance that the ruling EPRDF would be voted out of office, after running the country for nearly two decades? And what was the Ethiopian opposition, as well as the international community, going to make of the outcome of this vote?

Well, since the outcome of some 500-plus contested parliamentary seats became public earlier in the week, criticism of the election process has only grown. People find it astonishing that a mere three parliamentary sets went to the opposition combined.

Merdrek and the All Ethiopia’s Unity Party are Ethiopia’s two largest political parties. They received a crushing defeat in last weekend’s national polls. They are saying, however, that the contest is not over yet, and have called for new elections. They accuse the ruling party of intimidation, fraud, harassment and violence. Early results showed the ruling party of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi leading in every single corner of the country, including the capital, Addis Ababa, where opposition to the ruling E.P.R.D.F. has traditionally been fierce.

The opposition also say they do not expect the courts to grant their request for the holding of a fresh vote. Even Ethiopia’s conventional courts, along side the elections board, are not known to be independent of the ruling party.

The victorious party in these elections has also been hitting back at its critics, and none other than Prime Minster Meles himself has been leading he way. Reacting to opposition demands for himself has been leading the way. Reacting to opposition demands for a new vote, Meles told journalists, last week, that the law in Ethiopia allows for parties to demand a new vote; but, as he said, the petitioners must first be able to prove in court that the ballot, whose legitimacy they were disputing, was fraudulent.

The Prime Minister’s take on the disputed vote was that it had panned out successfully, because, as he saw it, voters were able to choose candidates without intimidation or coercion. To claims by the twenty seven-member European Union that the exercise was marred by lack of level-playing field, Meles described those as “pure opinion base on rumors.

The EU represent a big-time provider of aid to Ethiopia, and their views on the vote certainly cannot be taken lightly. Apart from the EU, as well as the Ethiopians opposition, who say the poll was less than fair, US-based Human Rights watch also has been speaking out. As the human rights body put it, the May 23 elections were “an orderly facade”.

Ethiopia happens to be the staunchest ally of the United States in the entire region of East Africa. Despite that, Washington has felt compelled to take a swipe at the current EPRDE government in Addis Ababa. Condemning the manner the vote was conducted, a U.S. government spokesman accused the Ethiopian authorities of repression, fraud and intimidation. He attacked the election process — saying it didn’t create an environment of free and fair elections. The official, P.J. Crowley, who is the leading spokesman in he U.S. State Department complained that while the U.S. has commended the Ethiopians for the co-operation on security and other issues, the Obama Administration was “disappointed with the conduct of the election”. He warned that bilateral ties between their two countries will be affected by whether or not the government in Addis addresses elections concerns.

According to Mr. Crowley, the freedom of choice for Ethiopian voters was constrained throughout the electoral process by actions of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s government, the National Elections Board and the ruling party and its supporters. He said election laws and procedures enacted after Ethiopia’s last polls back in 2005 created a “clear and decisive advantage” to the ruling EPRDF alliance.

“It is important that steps be taken to level the playing field, and to allow all factions to take part in the process,” Crowley said. “Whether that occurs, he went on, “will influence the future direction of U.S.-Ethiopia relations.”

If Ethiopia valued its relationship with Africa, Crowley said, then, it could not ignore “this strong message “. Again, he said: “We value the co-operation we have with he Ethiopian government on a range of issues, including regional security, climate change, for example. So, we will continue to engage this government. But, we will make clear that there are steps they need to take to improve their democratic institutions.”

Clearly, the Americans were incensed by the refusal of the Ethiopian authorities to allow an American embassy official, who wanted to observe the voting, to travel outside Addis Ababa to visit polling places.

Did the vote fall short of international standards? “Most definitely,” has been the answer from both the U.S. government and E.U.

But, in an equally combative manner, Meles has been responding to the criticism, as well as the veiled threats. On Wednesday, the embattled Meles told reporters in Addis that U.S. criticism “is politically motivated.” He said, “…if the outcome of our elections are such that they cannot continue our partnership, then, permit me to say we’ve been very grateful for the assistance they have rendered so far.”

Meles said, in effect, that his government will not allow itself to be “bossed around” just because it receives aid. The U.S. is the single largest donor to Ethiopia, a country that is no stranger to famine, drought, mass starvation and civil conflict. Every year, the U.S. delivers roughly a billion dollars in financial assistance the country.

Following the last election in 2005, opposition protesters, who were alleging fraud, took to the streets. The resultant crackdown by the government killed over 200 people. Another 100 or so leaders of the opposition, journalist and protesters were arrested. Most of them were pardoned and released within two years. However, many opposition leaders now live in exile or are still holed up in jail.

By Barry Malone

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) — Girma Seifu was at home hosting a dinner party to celebrate what looked like a sure parliamentary seat win when he got the phone call that would force him into the spotlight.

Ethiopia’s opposition coalition, the eight-party Medrek, had won only one seat in the 547-seat parliament — his.

“The secretary general of the party called,” says the newly elected MP, in his Addis Ababa office. “He said, ‘you could be the only one’. I didn’t expect that.”

The almost complete wipeout of opposition in the Horn of Africa country’s parliament was a shock. Analysts had expected the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) to win but not by that margin.

Aside from Girma and one independent parliamentarian, every winning MP is either a member of the EPRDF or from one of several closely allied parties.

The European Union and the United States have said the poll did not meet international standards. The country’s main opposition parties are calling for a rerun, citing pre-poll intimidation and even the stuffing of ballot boxes.

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi says his government won on its development record and he has offered an olive branch to the defeated opposition with the possible setting up of inter-party forums outside parliament to discuss major legislation.

Girma may also be given extra time to speak in the house.

“I think they are going to give me more time because otherwise they could have the parliamentary discussions at the EPRDF headquarters,” he said.

Girma won his seat in Addis Ababa’s Mercato district, seen as Africa’s biggest open-air market and one of the city’s poorer areas.

“PENALTY SHOOT-OUT”

“I won because a lot of my voters were merchants who are economically independent,” he said. “They weren’t civil servants or unemployed and subject to the same forms of intimidation as a lot of other people. I was lucky.”

Girma’s victory was slim, however, and he only beat his ruling party opponent by a margin of 114 votes in a constituency where both he and his father were born.

“If it was a game of football, you could say I won in a penalty shoot-out,” he says.

The father of two has been involved in politics since the last elections in 2005 but this will be his first time in parliament, where he will be without a leader.

The 2005 elections ended with the then opposition disputing the government’s victory. Riots broke out in Addis Ababa in which 193 protestors and seven policemen were killed. The top opposition leaders were jailed until 2007.

The leader of Girma’s party, the Unity for Democracy and Justice, which is part of Medrek, was sent back to jail, however, for violating the terms of her pardon.

For Girma, the reason Birtukan Mideksa is in jail is clear.

“It’s part of the game the government plays,” he says. “She was jailed because she’s a strong lady. If she had been free, the result might have been different.”

Despite the fact the opposition is set to challenge the result in court, Girma doesn’t hold out much hope for a rerun and is resolved to going it alone.

And the novice politician is putting on a brave face ahead of the challenge.

Meles is famously sharp and well known for his sometimes humiliating putdowns.

But Girma says he will not let that worry him.

“If I have a question, I have to ask,” he says. “I know he is a strong opponent. But I won’t be intimidated because of that. I will simply put my issues forward.” (Editing by Richard Lough and Diana Abdallah)

By Sally Healy

Ethiopia’s ruling party has already staged a victory rally in Addis Ababa to mark their satisfaction with the elections held last Sunday. The official results will not be announced until 21 June. But it is already clear that Meles Zenawi’s Ethiopian People’s Democratic Revolutionary Party (EPRDF) has seen off the opposition parties in no uncertain terms.

The shock of 2005

Is this a surprise? Not really. The big surprise occurred five years ago when the Ethiopian electorate threw caution to the wind and voted in their millions for a change of government. But they did not secure victory and the bold democratic experiment ended in violent protests and bloodshed. Opposition supporters were harassed and intimidated. Amongst opposition politicians there were bitter recriminations. Many endured imprisonment. Some chose exile. Judging from the results of the latest contest, it was not an experience that many wanted to repeat.

The 2005 election is chiefly remembered for the violence that came in its aftermath, as well as for a rather unseemly public row between Prime Minister Meles and Ana Gomez, who headed the EU Election Observation mission. In the confusion of a disputed poll and legal challenges, it has been largely forgotten how impressively the opposition actually performed.

Opposition annihilated

In 2005 the opposition took all 23 seats in the Addis Ababa region. In this month’s election the EPRDF has gained 22 seats in the Addis Ababa region and the opposition just one.

In the vast regional state of Oromia (some 10 million voters) where the opposition took 68 seats in 2005, the EPRDF has claimed all 178 seats.

In Amhara region (around 8 million voters) the turnaround is equally dramatic: the EPRDF has won 137 out of 138 seats, 50 of which were taken by the opposition in 2005.

The third most populous Southern Region (over 5 million voters) is a similar story. Where the opposition held 30 seats before, the EPRDF has won all of the 123 seats. With all but one seat out of 547 still to declare, the opposition forum, Medrek, has just one seat to its name.

Practically speaking, the opposition has been annihilated.

Just desserts?

This result has not been achieved without serious and sustained effort on the part of the EPRDF, including a mass recruitment drive for party membership which now exceeds 5 million (1 in 6 of the electorate).

Representative bodies at the grass roots level have been expanded to afford the government closer control of the populace.

At the same time legislation was passed to prevent non government organizations engaging in any form of political advocacy or democratization activities. In short, the government closed down political space and has got the result it wanted.

Not surprisingly, Medrek is calling for a re-run. But such results are rarely produced through technical shortcomings in the election process.

It is the political environment as a whole that needs to be addressed.

Does it matter? For Ethiopia’s external relations, probably not. It is likely to stay the UK’s number one aid target in Africa. But it does matter for the prospects for democracy in Ethiopia. Over six million people voted for change in 2005. It stretches credulity that such a number – 32% of the electorate – could have become convinced in the space of just five years that the EPRDF is, after all, the best choice for government.

It seems more likely that the lesson taken from 2005 was that, in Ethiopia, the chance to choose a government through a fair democratic contest was not in the end a serious one.

(Sally Healy is an associate fellow of the Africa Programme of Chatham House.)