The Cyclical Famine in Ethiopia
By Petros Toggia
Ethiopian Review, October 2000
The phenomenon of famine in Ethiopia has been near-cyclical. In the last fifty years alone, there have been five major famines: 1957-8, 1964-5, 1972-4, 1984-5, and the current 1997-2000. Between 6 and 8 million people were affected in the 1984-5 famine in northern Ethiopia; and approximately one million died. In 1972-4, about 200,000 people died in northern Ethiopia. No one could predict how many may die in the current one.
There are numerous interdependent causal factors for the near-cyclical famine in Ethiopia. These causal factors are periodic rain shortages, over-farmed, over-grazed land with degraded soil nutrients, soil erosion, civil war and unrest, callous and irresponsible state policies, dependency on food imports, cash-crop oriented and export-based development projects, and the marginalized sate of small-scale subsistence farming within a regional and global market economy. Any combination of these factors often compounded with natural calamity such as drought may easily upset the delicate balance of survival on subsistence farming and pastoralism for millions of people. Addressing the causal factors of recurrent famine in Ethiopia, Professor Mesfin Wolde-Mariam notes that “an agricultural population must first be made vulnerable to famine by the socio-economic and political forces before any adverse natural factor initiates the process of food shortage that inevitably leads to famine.” Further expounding the marginalized status of the Ethiopian peasant, Professor Wolde-Mariam states that “he [the subsistence producer] is very marginal both in the exercise of political rights and in his contributions to the market economy on his own behalf.”
An Ill-defined Famine
Some of the media coverage of the current Ethiopian famine reflects misgivings as to its magnitude, notably in comparison with the 1984-5 famine. For example, Reuters reassures its readers, understating the calamity that “Ethiopia’s Woes are not yet Famine.” Such a reassuring though an understated assessment is further echoed by a British International Development Minister, who asserted that “the Ethiopian famine is not on scale of the 1980s crisis.”
Some UN officials have also reaffirmed this view rather prematurely with inadequate assessment. For example, Catherine Bertini, the Executive Director of the World Food Program, albeit her good intentions and commitment to lead the relief effort, characterized the current famine as not yet a famine in the proper sense of the term, for not meeting the “definition” of a “famine.” Such statements concerning the “definition” of famine seems to be based on the extent of starvation and the corresponding rate of mortality from hunger. Yet, no one seems to know and report with absolute certainty about the impending catastrophe in Ethiopia. Prediction may still be impossible in terms of quantifying the suffering and death among the famine victims. We only know the full extent and effect of any famine post facto, usually after it is over. However, waiting that long to properly define famine may as well be a fatal mistake.
Prof. Mesfin Wolde-Mariam, in his well researched book on famine in Ethiopia, defined famine as “general hunger affecting large numbers of people in rural areas as a consequence of the non-availability of food for a relatively long time.” The current famine in Ethiopia has been known for at least three years. According to some reporters, ten people are dying every day in such rural town as Gode in Ogaden region in South eastern Ethiopia. The death and suffering of people from such persistent hunger, by definition, could be nothing less than a famine. It is, therefore, uncalled-for to speak with absolute certainty about the full impact of the current famine, considering the unforeseen infrastructural and political obstacles in food delivery to millions of famine victims. These understatements may send unintended and undesired messages to prospective international donors.
It has been three years since the onset of the current famine in Ethiopia. Although the Ogaden region in south eastern Ethiopia is the worst area to be affected by drought and famine, Borana in the south and some parts of Wollo in the north are believed to be at risk. There are now at least 8 million Ethiopians at risk exposed to lack of food, unclean drinking water, and epidemics such as tuberculosis, measles, diarrhea, and pneumonia. Six to ten people, most of whom are children, are dying every day due to starvation and illness. According to United Nations’ World Food Program, 800,000 tons of food aid is urgently needed to feed the famine victims in Ethiopia.
In this respect, numerous Non Governmental Organizations, the United Nations through the World Food Program, the USAID, the EU Commission, and the indigenous Ogaden Welfare Society have been providing a commendable humanitarian services to people in the drought affected areas. For example, the United Nations has undertaken an infrastructural project to expand Djibouti’s port capacity by fifty percent and to upgrade the two major roads to Ethiopia. In addition, the United Nations has also provided 400 trucks to ferry relief food from Djibouti’s port to Ethiopia.
Yet, the major problem still is how to set up and undertake an efficient food delivery system. This requires an urgent response and concerted effort from the international donor’s community and the full cooperation of the Ethiopian government with a focal concern on the relief effort. A recent FAO report highlighted the gravity of this situation in the region as follows: “only a massive international effort in the coming months in support of affected populations can avert further human suffering and loss of life.” Many people have been left without any means to sustenance since they lost most of their cattle, goats and camels to the drought in the last three years. It is estimated that 90 to 95 percent of the livestock is perished in the region. Numerous reports from eye-witness account verified that many people walk hundreds of miles in five to ten days in search of food to regional towns such as Gode.
Yet, the feeding and health centers in towns like Gode are inadequately prepared to assist the massive inflow of the famine victims from the outlying drought affected areas. As one of the famine victims told his story, “we had nothing there, we had nothing while we walked and we have nothing here.” The famine victim, Arish Hassan Ragi, took him ten days, traveling 119 miles from his rural village of Abab karo to come to the town of Gode. He soon learned that his final destination is far from promising for sustenance of his life, but rather placed him on a waiting game. Hence, in a tragic sense of despair, Arish stated: “Now we are waiting to die.”
The voices of the hunger victims are compelling. The tale of a desperate mother, who is determined to keep her toddler alive, is poignant. Her toddler, Hussein, is 18 months old and emaciated. “What could I give him after my milk gave out,” his mother desperately sighed. “We had heard there was food in Gode, so we came her,” she says wondering if there is milk available for her child.
A Famine under the Shadow of the War
For a brief period of time, the current Ethiopian famine was in the spotlight of the international media, as famine gripped the population in the south eastern, southern, and northern parts of Ethiopia. A few weeks ago, one can observe that more journalists were rushing to the drought affected regions in Ethiopia, outnumbering relief aid workers. A “human tragedy is looming in the Horn of Africa,” reported the Deutsche Presse-Agentur; “famine Forces Ethiopians to Roam,” wired the Associated Press; and Sunday Times added: “Horror of Ethiopians living dead.” However, the famine is now eclipsed by the ongoing war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, leaving millions of starved people at greater risk.
As of May 12, the world’s attention has shifted to the war in the northern Ethiopian borders with Eritrea. The media now extensively covers the successful military offensives waged by the Ethiopian army within the borders of Eritrea. As the Ethiopian government celebrates its military victories by recovering some of its territories, many may wonder about the paradoxical military muscle of a starving nation. For many observers it is baffling how a government that spends so much of its resources for the war effort is unable or unwilling to feed its starving people. As Karl Vick of the Washington Post commented, “the incipient famine is but the latest crisis in a country that ranks as nearly the poorest in the world and has been struggling to finance a protracted border war with Eritrea.”
The escalation of the war may further aggravate the crisis in the region, leading to the loss of lives, dislocation, political instability, and waste of economic resources. The war will indeed exacerbate the famine situation, as the primary focus of the Ethiopian government is the military front in the north and as it allocates much of its resources toward the war effort. Furthermore, the Ethiopian government’s engrossment with the military front may precipitate a sense of apathy among prospective donors.
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