Quarterly Report Vol. 1 No. 1

 

 

 

 

 

Table of Contents

 

Preface  
……………………………………………………………………2

1.      Introduction ………………………………………………………….5           

2.      Price Level …………………………………………………………….7

3.      Public Finance ……………………………………………………..14

4.      Foreign Trade………………………………………………………..19

5.      Monetary Aggregates and Indicators……………………………25

6.      Investment…………………………………………………………….28

7.      Special Issues…………………………………………………………32

8.      Statistical Annexes………………………………………………….35

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Ethiopian Economic Association has
been publishing its “Annual Report on the Ethiopian Economy” since 2000. The annual
report, a flagship publication of the Association, provides an independent
analysis of the performance of the economy in addition to detailed discussions
on particular sectors chosen to be the focus area for the year. While that
report has served this purpose very well, it has two fundamental drawbacks. The
first is the fact that owing to lack of timely data, the analysis usually has a
two year lag period. This delay is bound to reduce the usefulness of the
analysis for immediate policy interventions. The second and related drawback is
that even if data is available on a timely basis, there is a lot of information
that annual data hides that can be available from shorter frequency data sets
such as monthly or quarterly data. While monthly data is almost non existent in
Ethiopia, there is quarterly data, albeit
incomplete, that can be used for a meaningful short term analysis. The aim of
preparing this quarterly report is to use this available quarterly data set in
order to fill the analytical gap that is felt in the annual report.

 

The availability of up-to-date data on a
regular basis along with a thorough analysis of this data is crucial to make an
informed and timely adjustment on major macroeconomic policies. Paucity of data
has rendered timely macroeconomic analysis in Ethiopia rather difficult. This, in turn, hinders
making rapid and informed policy interventions in periods of macroeconomic
shocks. This has significantly reduced the flexibility and effectiveness of
macro policy at the national level, especially in periods of economic stress.
The timely availability of macroeconomic data and analysis in the public
domain, therefore, is valuable not only in enhancing our understanding of macroeconomic
phenomena but also in enabling policy makers to make informed policy decisions
and enhancing stakeholders’ participation in the policy making process.

 

Moreover, the importance of quarterly
performance can be judged by the fact that the annual economic performance is a
cumulative result of quarterly performances. A systematic concentration of
economic activities on some specific quarters provides useful information about
the nature of an economy, resource utilization and distribution.

 

Understanding such a pattern helps in
making informed policy interventions. Thus, it is very useful to systematically
compile, and analyze quarterly data on major macroeconomic indicators in the
country.   

 

Towards this end, the Ethiopian Economic
Association/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute is launching a
quarterly report on major macroeconomic indicators for Ethiopia. We firmly believe that this report will
encourage a more informed and relatively timely debate on macroeconomic issues
in the country among academics, policy makers, donors and the general public.
Accordingly, we encourage users of this report to provide constructive comments
and criticisms both on the form and content of this report in order to help us
improve future reports.

 

This report is part of the work of the
recently established Macroeconomic Division of the Institute. The establishment
of the Division is financially supported by a consortium of donors including Irish
Aid, the African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF), the Department for
International Development of the United Kingdom (DFID), the Norwegian Agency
for International Development (NORAD), the Swedish International Development
Agency (SIDA), the Netherlands Embassy in Ethiopia, and Friedrich Ebert Stiftung of Germany
(FES). The Association and the Institute are very grateful for their continuous
support. We would particularly like to mention Irish Aid and particularly
Patrick Empi and the other Irish Aid staff in Addis Ababa not only for the financial support and
commitment to the Macroeconomic Division but also for significantly
contributing to the enrichment of the project idea and its implementation.

 

We also would like to thank various data
generating government institutions including the National Bank of Ethiopia, the Central Statistical Authority, the
Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, the Ethiopian Investment
Authority, and the National Meteorological Agency for allowing us to use their
libraries and making some of their data available for analysis. We hope, in the
interest of knowledge and a better understanding of our economy, this
cooperation will broaden to include other government and non governmental
institutions in the future.  

 

 

 

Berhanu
Nega (Ph. D)

Director,
Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

It is generally believed that in a well
developed capitalist economy, the economic performance of a country for two
consecutive quarters in a given fiscal year suffices to tell whether the
economy is in a recession or not. A timely determination of the health of the
economy allows policy makers to use the various policy instruments they have to
try and chart a more desirable course for the economy. Quarterly data also
provides important details about the performance of individual economic sectors
with seasonal variations. For example, in rain dependant agriculture such as Ethiopia, what happens to the agricultural sector
in the first quarter more or less determines the total value-added in the
sector for the whole fiscal year. Closely related to this, in Ethiopia, price levels are higher in the first and
fourth quarters than in the second and third quarters witnessing the strong
association between price levels and food availability above all other
determinants of inflation. About 48% (sometimes as high as 59%) of the capital
budget of the Ethiopian government is utilized during the fourth quarter and
this has serious implications on resource allocation and efficiency. Hydroelectric
power that is generated in the first and second quarters is not sustained in
the third and fourth quarters. All these variations provide us with a richer
understanding of the operation of the economy.

 

Some of the indicators considered in this
issue are brief. Future issues of this report will update the already available
information and will cover macroeconomic indicators in more detail. This maiden
report incorporates data and analysis on selected variables on quarterly time
series basis. In order to highlight some of the salient issues that emerge in a
quarterly data analysis and identify systematic trends, this report will
provide long term time series analysis on quarterly data. Moreover, it will take
some sectors for a more in depth discussion when particularly noteworthy events
occur in that sector during the quarter under analysis. Furthermore, future
reports will incorporate other indicators that are not covered in this issue as
the availability of data permits.

 

This report is divided in to seven
sections. The next section deals with price developments which is followed by
public finance in section three. Sections four to six deal with foreign trade, monetary
aggregates, and investment, respectively. The last section of the report deals
with energy issues in the “Special Issues” section of the report.  The statistical annex of the report provides
detailed quarterly data on a variety of indicators.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Price Level

 

 

 

General Quarterly Trend

It is usually maintained that inflation in
Ethiopia has never been a serious problem. Except
in times of war and drought, the official record of inflation in the country has
shown a relatively stable trend, remaining within single digits in normal years
and even showing a negative value (deflation) in some years.

 

 It
is clear from the data that price levels in the country are heavily dictated by
food production. This is evidenced by the systematic association between the
price level and seasonal variation in crop production. The first quarter (July-
September), which is the rainy season in the country, is the planting period for
most food crops. During this period, there is a relative shortage of food as
peasants themselves are facing a depletion of their stock. As food comprises 60%
of the share in the basket of commodities in calculating the consumer price
index (CPI), the relative shortfall in food supply during this quarter results
in a relative rise in price levels compared to previous quarters.

 

The second quarter (October – December) is
a good period for food availability as crops reach their edible stage and as it
is harvest time in some areas. This quarter is also a period when farmers or
traders having accumulated stocks from the previous year start selling
especially if they expect that current harvest to be good. The third quarter
(January to March) is generally the period for farmers to complete harvesting.
Thus, price level in these two quarters is relatively low because of the
availability of crops. During this period, the terms of trade is in fact biased
against producers particularly because small holders, who dominate the
agricultural sector in the country, have to sell a significant portion of their
crop to settle their debts, which they incur in order to buy fertilizers and
other inputs.

 

The fourth quarter (April – June) is the dry
season. It is a period of intense tilling and crop stocks are depleted. Thus,
price starts to rise. In years of good belg
harvest, price levels become lower than the normal average.

 

As can be seen from Figures 2.1a and 2.1b,
quarterly price behavior is more of a supply-side phenomenon. The graph (2.1a)
shows the average national price level of each quarter for the period 1997/98
to 2002/03. It depicts that price levels, on average, are 2% higher in the
first and fourth quarters than in the second and third quarters. The respective
comparison rate for food index is 4%. A similar trend prevails for Addis Ababa (See Figure 2.1b).

            

 

 

 

 

                                          
                                                         

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The pattern that is observed above for the
six year average is consistent with the quarterly trend of prices during the
period 1997/98:Q1 to 2002/03:Q4 save for a few exceptional years. One such
exception is 2002/03 where prices showed an unusually upward trend due to the
catastrophic drought that occurred in the previous year. With this typical pattern maintained in other years, price levels
moved above the trend for the years 1998/99 and 1999/00 partly due to the
Ethio-Eritrean boarder conflict.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 2.2: Quarterly Trends of Price Levels:
1997/98:Q1-2002/03:Q4

 

The six year average monthly price levels
show that prices start to sharply rise in July through August, begins to
decline in September, and reach their lowest level in December, which is
exactly the end of the harvest period. The price level starts to rise again after
December until it reaches the maximum at the end of the fourth quarter in June.

 

Figure
2-3:  Monthly Trends of Prices (1997/98-2002/03)

 

INFLATION RATES

The national general price level has been
rising at an average (inflation) rate of 0.75% per quarter during the period
1997/98-2002/03, that is, for the last twenty four quarters. Price levels for
food and non-food items have been increasing at a quarterly rate of 1.1% and
0.1%, respectively. Food items, with a 60% share in the CPI, accounted for 95%
of the quarterly, and 87% of annual inflation.

 

Table
2.1a: Average Quarterly Inflation at a National Level

 

CPI

Food

Non-food

1997/98:I-2002/03:IV

2002/03:I-IV

1997/98:I-2002/03:IV

2002/03:  I-IV

1997/98:I-2002/03:IV

2002/03:I-IV

Share
(weight)

100

100

60.005

60.005

39.95

39.95

Inflation
Rate

0.75

5.4

1.1

8.2

0.1

0.6

Weighted
inflation Rate

0.74

5.2

0.7

5.0

0.04

0.23

Share
in inflation

100

100

95

95.6

5

4.4

Source: Central Statistics Authority and
EEA/EEPRI staff computations.

 

As it is evidenced by Figure 2-4 below,
the price index for non-food items is relatively stable over the last 24
quarters. Any inflationary or deflationary pressure, if any, is more or less
associated with fluctuations in the food price index. This situation clearly
supports the view that price trends in Ethiopia are highly dictated by availability of
food supply.  

 

 

Figure
2-4: Trends in Quarterly Price Levels

In terms of price stability over the years,
the first quarter is found to be the most stable with a percentage change of
0.8% while the fourth quarter is found to be the most unstable with a
percentage change of 4.5%[1].
This indicates that inflationary trends are higher in the fourth quarter than
in other quarters. While inflation is heavily determined by availability of
food in general and crop production in particular, the high inflationary
pressure in the fourth quarter for successive years implies that the relative
shortage of food is dynamically deteriorating in the forth quarter. Some of the
fluctuation could be minimized with a comprehensive agricultural marketing
strategy that allows for smoothening out prices over the cycle.

 

 

Table 2.1b: Average Quarterly
Inflation for Addis
Ababa

 

CPI

Food

Non-food

1997/98:I-2002/03:IV

2002/03:I-IV

1997/98:I-2002/03:IV

2002/03:I-IV

1997/98:I-2002/03:IV

2002/03:I-IV

Share
(weight)

100

100

43

43

57

57

Inflation
Rate

0.3

2.3

0.4

4.9

0.2

0.3

Weighted
inflation Rate

0.3

2.3

0.2

2.1

0.1

0.3

Share
in inflation

100

100

66.7

91.3

33.3

8.7

Source:
Central Statistics Authority and EEA/EEPRI staff computations.

 

Even for Addis Ababa, where the share of food items in the
basket of commodities considered for CPI is 43% compared to the national
average of 60%, quarterly inflationary trends are mainly governed by prices of
food products. For the last 24 quarters, about
67% of the quarterly inflation in the City has been generated by changes in the
price of food items. This figure reached 91% in the 2002/03 fiscal year. One interesting observation noted is that the
average quarterly inflation rate for the country for the last 24 quarters (6
years) is more than double the average inflation for Addis
Ababa although the quarterly inflation rate for
both is less than 1%. The average quarterly inflation rate for Addis
Ababa and Ethiopia,
are 0.3% and 0.75%, respectively.   

 

Figure
2.5: Quarterly Trends of Price Levels for Addis Ababa

 

The
annual inflation rates for Ethiopia
and Addis Ababa
are, respectively, 2.7%, and 0.7%.
About 87% and 22% of the annual inflation
for Ethiopia
and Addis Ababa,
respectively, are explained by rises in prices of food items. Though much of the quarterly inflation for
Addis
Ababa
is explained by prices of food items, the annual average inflation is explained
more by prices of non-food items [See Table 2.1b].  While quarterly fluctuations in the general
price level are generated by prices of food items, a relatively long term, in
this case annual, changes are generated by prices of non-food items. That is, food
prices have shorter (quarterly) frequencies but non-food prices have longer
(annual) frequencies of fluctuation. This is unlike the pattern observed in the
national average price level where both quarterly and annual fluctuations are
dominantly generated by prices of food items.

 

To sum up, on the basis of official
figures, inflation in Ethiopia has remained low. It is in general a
supply-side phenomenon and quarterly fluctuations in price levels are
systematically generated by seasonal availability of food crops. While the
basic rationale to suppress inflation is to create a stable macroeconomic
environment for sustainable economic growth, such depressed level of inflation
and occasional deflation, however, are clearly on the minus side. This may indicate
a highly frozen wage rate and excessively prudent monetary and fiscal policies
in the country. It is in particular against peasants’ productivity in the sense
that they fail to sell at a reasonably fair price during bumper harvest. The
low price in general gives a room for some government expenditure policy
interventions at least through provision of public goods.     

    

 

 

 

Public Finance

 

 

Expenditure
Bubbles at the Fourth Quarter

The role of government in an economy has
been one of the fiercely debated issues in economics. Clearly, complete laissez
faire that keeps away government from the economy is more a textbook issue than
a strictly applied principle. What is really at issue in the current debate is
the degree of intervention and the type of economic sectors that the government
can fruitfully intervene without becoming an obstacle in the operation of
private economic agents.

 

 In
a typical developing country such as Ethiopia, particularly in its initial stage of development,
the role of government in the economy is bound to be more than ensuring
stability. However, whether one prefers an activist or a minimalist state, a
government engaged in the development of a strong private sector requires a
sustainable and efficient system of public finance.

 

One of the measures for the performance of
the public sector is its fiscal performance. Hard-earned government revenue,
which is secured from taxation and, in the Ethiopian case, increasingly from
foreign loans and grants must be spent prudently and efficiently if it is to
contribute to the country’s development. A common principle of efficiency in
government capital expenditure is to ensure that one Birr worth of investment
should have a return more than one Birr in net present value. However, the
actual return from such investments may be far less than what is implied by the
equi-marginal principle due to misappropriation of resources. One of the
indications of such an inefficient use of resources is inappropriate timing in
the launching of projects.

 

In this respect, an analysis of quarterly
performance of government expenditure is important. In Ethiopia, the available data indicates that about
48% of the capital expenditure, 33% of recurrent expenditure, and 38% of the total
expenditure are carried out in the fourth quarter. This figure reaches as high
as 59% for capital expenditure in some years. Since the major part of the
recurrent expenditure goes to wages and salaries, its quarterly distribution is
not skewed much as wages and salaries are usually paid on a regular basis.  The rush by a public sector, which pays wages and salaries on a regular basis, to
dispose off budget outlay on capital projects in the last month of the budget
year (usually June) cannot be more than wastage.   

 

It
is apparent from Figure 3.1 that the level of general expenditure at the fourth
quarter is always at its peak. This trend was not as pronounced, at least
during the last three years of the Derg
regime, as it is after 1992.    

  

Figure3.1:
Trends in Quarterly General Expenditure

 

The share of the fourth quarter in general
government expenditure is always the highest of all the share of the other quarters.
But the pattern, as can be expected, is more pronounced for capital expenditure
while recurrent expenditure is relatively more even.

 

  

Figure3.2:
Trends in Quarter Share of General Expenditure

 

 

For the period 1991/92-2001/02, the
average share of the first, second and third quarters were, respectively,
11.3%, 19%, and 21.7%. Almost half of the activities under the capital budget
are accomplished in the fourth quarter. This is clearly a result of a rush to
spend the allotted money before the end of the budget year. Such a “fire buy”
is very likely to create all kinds of loopholes for embezzlement of public funds.
Even worse, capital projects that are accomplished in such a short period of
time are susceptible to quality problems leading to lower economic and social
returns. It is not uncommon to hear that some payments are effected at the
eleventh hour lest the budget expires and return to the federal treasury.              

 

Table 3-1: Quarter Share in the General
Government Expenditure

 

Current Expenditure

Capital Expenditure

Total General
Government Expenditure

YEAR

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

1988/89

18.3

23.1

23.0

35.5

17.0

23.2

26.3

33.5

17.9

23.2

24.0

34.9

1989/90

17.1

24.1

26.1

32.7

14.3

25.0

28.5

32.2

16.5

24.3

26.7

32.6

1990/91

26.2

29.5

18.8

25.6

15.7

31.5

21.1

31.7

23.6

30.0

19.3

27.1

1991/92

20.8

19.6

23.2

36.4

5.2

17.9

21.3

55.6

17.1

19.2

22.8

40.9

1992/93

19.6

23.5

24.9

32.1

8.5

15.8

32.8

43.0

15.7

20.7

27.6

35.9

1993/94

18.6

24.6

22.3

34.5

10.9

18.3

23.3

47.5

15.6

22.1

22.7

39.6

1994/95

20.2

21.0

25.0

33.8

15.2

14.8

20.8

49.3

18.3

18.7

23.5

39.5

1995/96

21.2

23.5

25.9

29.4

11.7

19.5

19.5

49.3

17.3

21.9

23.2

37.6

1996/97

22.5

24.2

22.9

30.5

9.1

16.5

19.3

55.1

16.1

20.6

21.2

42.1

1997/98

17.3

18.0

20.6

44.0

7.4

20.2

21.8

50.6

13.7

18.8

21.1

46.4

1998/99

17.3

23.4

29.6

29.7

11.0

14.9

14.8

59.4

15.2

20.6

24.7

39.4

1999/00

21.6

26.7

26.3

25.3

13.0

22.7

23.7

40.6

20.1

26.0

25.8

28.1

2000/01

17.3

23.2

23.4

36.1

13.6

24.0

20.1

42.3

15.2

22.2

25.6

37.0

2001/02

20.5

22.6

22.9

34.0

19.2

24.2

21.4

35.2

18.5

23.3

23.0

35.2

Average:
1991/92-2001/02

19.7

22.8

24.3

33.3

11.3

19.0

21.7

48.0

16.6

21.3

23.8

38.3

average:
1988/89:90/91

20.5

25.6

22.6

31.3

15.7

26.6

25.3

32.4

19.3

25.8

23.3

31.5

 

 

Figure3.3:
Average Quarterly Share of General Government Expenditure: 1991/92-2001/02

 

 

Figure3.4:
Quarterly Share of Capital Expenditure: 1991/92-2001/02

 

The reason for such unreasonably skewed
distribution of activities among quarters could be negligence, deliberate delay
to make sure that there is room for corruption, or it could be due to delay in
donors’ disbursement of agreed funds for a variety of reasons. Whatever the
case may be, it has a serious implication to the development endeavors of the
country and has to be addressed seriously.

 

 

 

 

 

Foreign Trade

 

Overall

Total value of exports stood at 1.07
billion Birr at the existing exchange rate (258.6 million Birr at constant
exchange rate) in the third quarter of the year 2002/03. The value of imports
during this period was 4.07 billon Birr at the existing exchange rate (980.4
million Birr at constant exchange rate).

 

Figure4.1:
Value of Imports and Exports

 

The deep slump in imports in the fourth
quarter of the year 1990/91 in Figure 4-1 above is due to the civil war that
prevailed in that year. The unusually high upsurge in imports in the second
quarter of the year 1992/93 is due to adjustments for unrecorded aircraft
imports of Birr 510 million.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exports

As it is apparent from Figure 4-3 below,
Ethiopian exports have long been dominated by one commodity, namely coffee. The
seasonality of coffee production also affects the overall export performance
and causes high seasonal fluctuations in the total export. The peaks that are
observed in the graph occur in the fourth quarter while the slumps occur during
the second quarter. The high dependence of the total export on coffee has
serious implications on the country’s export performance especially after the
world coffee price shock.

 

Figure 4.3: Trends in Coffee and Total Export

 

The share of coffee in the total value of
commodities exported between 1979/80 and 1990/91 was 57%. This share increased
to about 64% during the EPRDF period before the international coffee price declined
in 1998/99. Following this, the share declined progressively and the average
share for the period 1999/00 to the third quarter of the year 2002/03 was about
44%. During the last 12 quarters, this share declined to 35%. This decline in
the share of coffee in the total value of export is not due to an upsurge in the
value of other exportable commodities and diversification, but rather due to the
decline in the total value of coffee export as a result of a decline in the
price of coffee in the international market. This is witnessed by the fact that
the total value of exports declined due to the fall in proceeds from coffee
export. For the first seven years of the EPRDF period, that is, before the
price shock in 1998/1999, the value of exports used to grow at an annual rate
of 20.9%. For the following years (1998/99-2001/02), the value of total exports
of goods and services declined by an average annual rate of 6.4%. The highest
decline was 21.1% which is registered in 1998/99.        

        

Figure
4-4: Trends in Quarterly Share of Coffee Export

 

Imports

The major change in the structure of
imports during the EPRDF period, compared with the Derge period, came from
miscellaneous components, and raw materials. The share of semi-finished goods
does not show much change, which implies that domestic industries still depend
on imported semi-finished goods as their major input. The share of capital
goods moderately declined from the Derge period average of 34% to 32.8% in the
EPRDF period. In particular, the share of capital imports for agriculture has
declined from the already low share of 2% during the Derge regime to 0.8%
during the EPRDF period.

 

Table 4-1: Share of Imports
by End-Use

 

1970/71:I-2002/03:III

1970/71:I-1990/91:IV

1991/92:I-2002/03:III

 

 

 

 

Raw
materials

3.0

3.6

1.8

Semi-finished goods

16.1

15.5

15.7

Fuels

14.5

15.0

15.7

Capital goods

33.4

34.0

32.8

     
Transport

13.1

13.6

13.3

     
Agricultural

1.6

2.0

0.8

     
Industrial

18.7

18.4

18.8

Consumer goods

30.7

30.9

29.4

     
Consumer durables

10.2

9.6

9.5

     
Consumer Non-durables

20.5

21.2

19.8

Miscellaneous

2.2

1.0

4.5

 

The Current
Account Balance

Foreign exchange earnings from exports of
goods and services used to cover about 83% of total imports for the imperial period.
The corresponding figure for the Derge period was 60%. For the last twelve
years, foreign exchange earnings from exports have financed only 52% of the
country’s imports. For the last five years, value of exports of goods and
services is only 46% of total imports of goods and services.

 

Traditionally, current account balance is
one of the target variables of prudent macroeconomic policies. An improvement
in the current account deficit is usually considered as a sound balance of
payment performance. The success of exchange rate policies (devaluation for instance)
is measured in terms of improvement in the current account balance.

 

However, improvements in the current
account balance may not necessarily be a result of sound export performance
over imports, which can be considered a healthy situation. Whenever an economy
faces a supply-side shock, domestic demand for imported goods declines.
Regardless of what happens to the export sector, the current account deficit
declines.

 

 

In Ethiopia, during periods of contraction in the
domestic economy, current account balance improves while during boom years,
current account deficit deteriorates. Figure 4-5 shows the direction of
correlation between GDP and current account deficit. Thus, most of the apparent
improvements in the current account deficit in the economy recorded so far are
results of domestic economy contraction than improvements in exports over
imports.

 

         

Figure
4-5: Correlation between GDP and Current Account Deficit

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monetary Aggregates

 

Money Supply

By the end of March 2003, narrow money and
broad money reached 16 billion Birr and 29.2 billion Birr.  Saving deposits, demand deposits, and
currency outside banks accounted for 41.3%, 29.4%, and 25.5% of the money
supply, respectively, during the third quarter of 2002/03.

Table 5-1: Components of Money Supply (millions
of Birr)

 

2002/03

Q1

Q2

Q3

Narrow Money
(M1)

15543.2

15461.7

16000.4

      Currency outside banks

6358.5

6716.2

7439.6

      Net
Demand Deposits

9184.7

8745.5

8560.8

Quasi-Money

12609.2

12878.5

13161.1

      Saving Deposits

11480.5

11737.8

12032.3

     Time Deposits

1128.7

1140.7

1128.8

Broad Money (M2)

28152.4

28340.2

29161.6

 

Table 5-2: Components of Money Supply
(Share on Broad Money)

 

2002/03

Q1

Q2

Q3

Narrow Money
(M1)

55.2

54.6

54.9

      Currency outside banks

22.6

23.7

25.5

      Net
Demand Deposits

32.6

30.9

29.4

Quasi-Money

44.8

45.4

45.1

      Saving Deposits

40.8

41.4

41.3

     Time Deposits

4.0

4.0

3.9

Broad Money (M2)

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Reserve money (currency in circulation
plus bank deposit at the central bank) reached Birr 12 billion at the end of
the third quarter of 2002/03. Actual reserve during the period was about 3.9
billion Birr. The ratio of narrow money to reserve money and that of broad
money to reserve (money multiplier) during the period were 1.33 and 2.42,
respectively.   

With low demand for credits, excess
reserve reached 67.7% of actual reserve in the third quarter of 2002/03 from a level
of 61.5% in the first quarter of the same year.

Table 5-3: Reserves (millions of Birr)

 

2002/03

Q1

Q2

Q3

Reserve
Requirements

1221

1241.1

1271.2

Actual Reserve

3170.6

3255.1

3939.8

Excess Reserve

1949.6

2014

2668.6

Reserve Money

10296.1

10645.6

12040.4

    Currency in circulation

7041.5

7294.4

8100.6

    Banks deposit at NBE

3254.6

3351.2

3939.8

           

Credit

Seasonal variations in net credit claims
are more pronounced in the public sector than in the non-public sector. One interesting feature of net credit
claims is that changes in claims on the central government and non-central
government seem to be counter cyclical. It seems a tautology in the sense that if claims on the central government
increases, then the non-central government counterpart should finance it and be
a lender and claims on it will be reduced accordingly.

 

Figure 5-1: Quarterly Changes in Net Domestic Credit

 

 

Credit injections have been modest since
the second quarter of 2000/01.  Domestic
credit stood at 26.8 billion Birr at the third quarter of the 2002/03 fiscal
year. The injection during the quarter was about 133 million Birr. Net credit
claims on central government and non-central government during the third
quarter of the fiscal year are, respectively, 15.2 billion Birr and 11.6
billion Birr.

 

Central government, the industrial sector,
and international trade claimed 33.3%, 11.4%, and 9.7%, respectively, of the
total outstanding loan in the third quarter. Domestic trade, housing and
construction, and the agricultural sector follow with respective shares of
7.8%, 7.2%, and 6%. About 60% of the outstanding loan granted to the domestic
trade sector is provided by private banks.  

 

 

Interest Rate

For the last three decades, interest rates
in Ethiopia have not been market determined. It is
rather a policy variable. The saving deposit rate was fixed at 6% during the
Derge period. It was also fixed at 11% for a brief period (less than 1 year)
and was back at 6%, during the EPRDF period. 
Currently, the minimum deposit rate is fixed at 3% per annum while the
lending rate ranges between a minimum of 7.5% per annum and a maximum of 13%.
The average lending rate as of March 2003 has been 10.25%. The weighted average
treasury bills rate, the inter-bank rate, and average bond yield have been
1.26%, 7%, and 3.91%, respectively, during the third quarter of 2002/03.  

 

 

 

Investment

Overview

The total capital of investment projects
approved by the Ethiopian Investment Authority between July 1991/92 and June
2002/03 was about 91.5 billion Birr. Out of this, the value of inactive
projects was about 3 billion Birr. Investment projects with a capital of 1.2
billion Birr were terminated before 2001/02. Thus, the cumulative capital of approved
investment projects as of 2002/03 is estimated at 87.3 billion Birr. Until
2001/02, investment projects that had started operation and those which were in
the implementation phase have a capital share of 29.1%, and 17.7%,
respectively. Investment projects with a capital share of 52% of the total
approved projects are presumed to be in “pre-implementation phase” or that
their status is not clearly known.  Certainly,
the total amount of investment undertaken in the country, which is about 41
billion birr over eleven years or an average of 3.7 billion birr per year, is
extremely low given the size of the population of the country.  In terms of the current population, the per
capita investment is about 60 Birr. What is also worrying about the investment
figures is that more than half of the investors interested in investing at one
time have either decided to wait or not pursue the project at all after going
through the process of getting the investment license.

 

The regional distribution of investment
projects has been skewed towards regions with a relatively better
infrastructure and major urban centers. To this end, Addis Ababa accounted for
about 55.7% of the total capital of investment projects approved until 2002/03
followed by Oromiya with an investment capital share of 17.8%. Southern Ethiopia Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples
(SENNP), Tigray, and Amhara regions are more or less in the same category with
a capital share of 6%. However, Somali, Gambella, and Harari regions have a share
of less than 1% in the total capital of investment projects.

 

Figure3.2Regional
Distribution of Investment Projects

 

 

Quarterly
Distribution

The quarterly distribution of investment
projects is not influenced very much by seasons unlike other economic activities
except for some years with special incidence such as war. The third and fourth
quarters of the years 1998/99 and 1999/00 showed low performance in terms of
investment projects. This may be due to the Ethio-Eritrean conflict which took
place more or less about that time. One of the reasons for the absence of a skewed
distribution of investment projects among quarters may be due to the fact that approval
of investment projects does not necessarily imply actual implementation, both
in terms of making decisions to invest and the time lag between securing an investment
license and implementing a project.

 

 

Figure6-.2:
Quarterly Trends of Investment Projects Approved

 

Table 6-1: Year-Quarter
Matrix of Capital of Investment Projects (Millions of Birr)

 

QI

QII

QIII

QIV

Total 

1997/98

2191.2

1783.8

1986.7

1715.5

7677.2

1998/99

1010.8

4727.9

1020.1

1198.2

7957.1

1999/00

4365

2963

1630.3

2155.4

11113.7

2000/01

1330.4

1787.4

2866.1

2688

8671.9

2001/02

2712.0

2071.3

2756.3

1587.84

9127.5

2002/03

3263.1

3536.1

2691.9

3691.6

13182.7

 

Table 6-2: Quarterly
Distribution of Investment Projects (Percentage of capital of projects)

 

QI

QII

QIII

QIV

1997/98

28.5

23.2

25.9

22.3

1998/99

12.7

59.4

12.8

15.1

1999/00

39.3

26.7

14.7

19.4

2000/01

15.3

20.6

33.1

31.0

2001/02

29.7

22.7

30.2

17.4

2002/03

24.8

26.8

20.4

28.0

Average

25.1

29.9

22.8

22.2

 

In the fiscal year 2002/03, Addis Ababa still accounts for the lions share in the
total investment projects in all quarters. There is a significant leap in
investment for Dire Dawa in the second quarter. The capital of investment
projects approved for Dire Dawa in the second quarter was 21.5% of the total
capital of investment projects approved for the country. A cement factory,
bakery, construction, and engineering projects are the major items that boosted
the share of approved investment projects in Dire Dawa.

 

Oromiya, SENNPR, and Dire Dawa constitute the
highest share in the total capital of investment projects after Addis Ababa, in the fourth quarter. But a significant
portion of this investment is accounted by public investment in electricity
supply. Public investment in the electricity sub-sector accounted for 88.7%,
46.2%, and 23.8% of the capital of total investment projects in SENNPR, Dire
Dawa, and Oromiya, respectively.   

 

Table 6-3: Regional
Distribution of Investments During the Four Quarters of the Year 2002/03

 

 

 

 

 Capital ‘000 Birr       

 

 

Share (%)

QI

QII

QIII

QIV

QI

QII

QIII

QIV

Tigray

9365.6

45665.64

41136.55

62081.61

0.3

1.3

1.5

1.7

Afar

9480.4

14777

0

0

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.0

Amhara

29666

16620.8

52539.06

112979

0.9

0.5

2.0

3.1

Oromiya

334373.6

217563.4

445391.7

779151.4

10.2

6.2

16.5

21.1

Somali

0

7630.85

0

0

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

Benishangul-Gumuz

21445.3

0

86000

0

0.7

0.0

3.2

0.0

SENNP

212581.4

11494.96

49899.03

406537

6.5

0.3

1.9

11.0

Gambella

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Harari

7097

17489.54

8738.56

8685.57

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.2

Dire Dawa

19569.3

759381.5

62839.04

262315.3

0.6

21.5

2.3

7.1

Addis Ababa

2542896

2445443

1945368

2059874

77.9

69.2

72.3

55.8

Not
Stated

76588.2

 

 

 

2.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Issues

 

 

Energy

The fiscal year 2002/03 witnessed a catastrophic
drought in Ethiopia. The value added in the agricultural
sector was expected to slump by more than 12% as major crop production is
estimated to fall by about 26%. As a result, real GDP was forecasted to fall by
about 4%. The forecast was made under the assumption that other sectors would
grow at a fairly normal rate. However, non-agricultural sectors, the industrial
in particular, sector were also adversely affected by power interruptions that
were prolonged for about four months with a one day per week complete interruption
throughout the country. Thus, the effect of power interruption in the fiscal
year and in fact in previous years has put a warning signal that the country
may be moving from rain-fed agriculture to “rain-fed industry” as the
economy switched to industry which will obviously be dependent on power from
hydroelectricity sources unless some corrective measures are taken. It is,
therefore, important to consider the quarterly trends of energy production from
hydroelectric power to draw some lessons.

 

In the 1960s, Ethiopia’s production of energy from electricity was
estimated at about 128 million KWH per annum. About 53% of this energy was
generated by hydroelectric power (HEP) while the balance was secured from
thermal sources. Partly due to the world oil price shock and partly due to the
comparative advantage the country claims to have, the share of the HEP rose to
95% during mid 1980s. Nowadays, the share of HEP in the total electricity
generated is about 98% (This is the average for the EPRDF period).

 

However, the power supply which is
predominantly generated from HEP, fails to meet the ever growing demand. Even
worse, it fails to supply the whole year on a sustainable basis to its clients.
It cannot sustain delivering to the third and fourth quarters what it delivers
in the first and second quarters. As it is evidenced from Figures 7-1 and 7-2
below, although fluctuations in quarterly electricity generations in terms of
percentage seem to be stable over time except during some unusual occasions,
the absolute fluctuation is, however, widening. Fluctuations overtime seem to
be stable when measured in percentage. However, small deviations in terms of
percentage points these days are big in terms of values. They are small in
percentage terms because they are divided by higher bases.        

 

      

 

Figure
7-1: Percentage Change in Quarterly Electricity

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure
7:2: Quarterly Change in Electricity (‘000 KWH)

 

This situation forced the Ethiopian
Electric Light and Power Corporation to undertake power rationing for some
months of the fiscal year 2002/03. This was also practiced in previous years. In
a 52 billion Birr economy at current market prices (18 billion Birr at 1980/81
constant prices), a complete interruption of power throughout the country for a
day will result in production loss in that day estimated to be in the order of
10 to 15% of the GDP of the day. If the rationing had continued for a year,
there would have been interruption for about 52 days causing a 1.7 to 2.5 %
decline in real GDP. 

 

Fortunately, the generous rainfall during
June – September, 2003 has rescued the economy from what would have been if
there had been a sustained and more frequent power interruption. But the
warning signal was clear: power is not something that should be totally put at
the mercy of nature. It calls for a short to long range national power
policy.       

 

 

 

 

Statistical Annexes

 

ANNEX
A: Consumer Price Indices (2000=100): 1997/98:I-2002/03: IV

 

National                                                                                  
Addis Ababa

Period

CPI-General

CPI-Food

CPI-Nonfood

 

Period

CPI-General

CPI-Food

CPI-nonfood

1997/98:Q.I

100.8

103.0

100.2

 

1997/98:Q.I

98.5

102.1

96.4

Q.II

97.7

99.3

98.0

 

Q.II

97.5

99.6

95.4

Q.III

96.4

97.7

96.4

 

Q.III

96.4

99.1

94.7

Q.IV

97.7

101.4

94.9

 

Q.IV

98.4

101.6

95.8

1998/99:Q.I

101.8

108.4667

95.1

 

1998/99:Q.I

100.5

107.4

93.9

Q.II

100.3

105.6333

95.1

 

Q.II

94.9

97.5

92.3

Q.III

101.5

105.4333

97.9

 

Q.III

97.3

102.3

92.2

Q.IV

107.7

117.9

96.2

 

Q.IV

102.0

112.0

92.2

1999/00:Q.I

112.0

126.4333

95.2

 

1999/00:Q.I

105.0

118.6

91.8

Q.II

106.5

114.8333

97.3

 

Q.II

100.8

110.5

91.3

Q.III

107.0

113.3667

100.1

 

Q.III

100.4

107.1

93.8

Q.IV

111.2

120.4667

101.1

 

Q.IV

105.0

113.3

96.8

2000/01:Q.I

109.8

117.3333

101.5

 

2000/01:Q.I

105.8

113.2

98.7

Q.II

102.5

105.0667

99.5

 

Q.II

101.8

104.6

99.0

Q.III

102.7

105.1667

100.2

 

Q.III

99.8

99.7

99.8

Q.IV

98.8

97.96667

100.1

 

Q.IV

97.9

96.9

98.7

2001/02:Q.I

96.7

93.7

101.4

 

2001/02:Q.I

96.3

94.1

98.0

Q.II

96.8

93.56667

102.0

 

Q.II

96.1

93.5

98.1

Q.III

94.9

90.66667

101.5

 

Q.III

95.8

92.2

98.6

Q.IV

95.6

92.9

100.1

 

Q.IV

94.7

89.6

98.6

2002/03: Q.I

103.2

104.5

101.0

 

2002/03: Q.I

97.5

95.8

98.7

QII

107.9

111.8862

101.3

 

QII

98.8

98.1

99.4

QIII

112.8

119.1269

102.4

 

QIII

100.8

102.7

99.3

QIV

117.9

127.3655

102.4

 

QIV

103.6

108.4

99.9

Sources: Central
Statistical Authority and EEA/EEPRI computations.

                                                                                        

Annex B: Value of Imports by End Use
(Millions of Birr): 1970:1-2002/03: III

 

1970/71 I

II

III

IV

1971/72

II

III

IV

1972/73 I

II

III

IV

RAW
MATTERIALS

4528

3191

5194

4780

5903

3864

5257

3193

5798

4801

3926

5085

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

19962

20576

24197

27047

18585

18928

20216

16861

17669

17322

19463

21809

FEULS

9580

5670

8887

10689

15020

9708

13710

9438

6183

6905

3990

13303

CAPITAL
GOODS

37152

36551

37126

33926

41193

47662

40277

46597

41746

38850

33202

35070

      Transport

10049

9660

10696

9414

12316

12612

13387

12447

11209

14140

11762

11540

      Agricultural

2679

3348

3302

3231

3606

4428

2958

3932

4150

2237

2524

2053

      Industrial

24424

23543

23128

21281

25271

30622

23932

30218

26387

22473

18916

21477

CONSUMER
GOODS

42437

36173

38839

37889

40826

35082

36865

34116

33458

33229

38567

35164

      Consumer Durables

17278

15635

15296

16009

16958

15890

15913

15292

14457

16882

17166

15126

      Consumer Non-durables

25159

20538

23543

21880

23868

19192

20952

18824

19001

16347

21401

20038

MISCELLANEOUS

643

482

969

953

935

1327

1084

481

730

794

505

1396

TOTAL
IMPORTS

114302

102643

115212

115284

122462

116571

117409

110686

105584

101901

99653

111827

 

 

 

 

1973/74 I

II

III

IV

1974/75 I

II

III

IV

19751/76 I

II

III

IV

RAW
MATTERIALS

4825

7101

5098

5266

8191

9180

4552

17317

6003

4748

9774

5211

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

27936

27189

29440

30480

38014

34323

44696

30264

38377

27298

30263

33919

FEULS

5732

18976

3845

27007

32893

22492

47192

18531

11777

64469

35807

5260

CAPITAL
GOODS

33770

33193

31319

22897

23931

20708

24908

22402

16402

26515

35272

89132

      Transport

11953

10143

12221

10972

13991

9167

15202

13380

10553

18876

14631

62253

      Agricultural

2045

2178

2085

2642

3346

5921

3278

1849

1289

1948

2324

2613

      Industrial

19772

20872

17013

9283

6594

5620

6428

7173

4560

5691

18317

24266

CONSUMER
GOODS

38645

36607

41314

53488

67790

62660

60833

58153

55793

64193

56507

56179

      Consumer Durables

17409

17680

17786

19738

25960

24629

22054

24650

21490

27912

19680

19959

      Consumer Non-durables

21236

18927

23528

33750

41830

38031

38779

33503

34303

36281

36827

36220

MISCELLANEOUS

945

830

1017

1184

1090

1077

2037

452

973

204

191

511

TOTAL
IMPORTS

111853

123896

112033

140322

171909

150440

184218

147119

129325

187427

167814

190212

 

 

 

 

 

 

1976/77 I

II

III

IV

1977/78 I

II

III

IV

1978/79 I

II

III

IV

RAW
MATTERIALS

4461

4760

10225

7626

10070

7346

4772

8658

12259

15132

10640

12764

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

36350

31975

28763

26929

26483

30151

23891

20985

76828

51911

39774

68084

FEULS

39271

30759

34050

3987

1476

548

479

813

2420

3511

41288

48021

CAPITAL
GOODS

35425

57911

78461

39524

38920

64485

71526

62175

125531

101733

96626

85498

      Transport

14618

21928

40874

9936

13700

16925

23752

28573

58309

41136

36886

27007

      Agricultural

1871

2524

4827

3030

1501

5177

2314

3586

1467

3108

8291

4159

      Industrial

18936

33459

32760

26558

23719

42383

45460

30016

65755

57489

51449

54332

CONSUMER
GOODS

54020

68321

66766

66345

46396

98793

73865

55727

111431

94682

87641

79883

      Consumer Durables

21173

23603

22048

18773

12548

24013

21536

19912

38737

20853

37010

26212

      Consumer Non-durables

32847

44718

47572

39630

33848

74780

52329

35815

72694

73829

50631

53671

MISCELLANEOUS

2035

6214

4122

12622

9873

15054

332

197

13660

1494

518

2810

TOTAL
IMPORTS

171562

199940

222387

157033

133218

216377

174865

148555

342129

268463

276487

297060

 

 

 

1979/80 I

II

III

IV

1980/81 I

II

III

IV

1981/82 I

II

III

IV

RAW
MATTERIALS

12589

10621

13973

16409

7910

14622

10180

20969

12867

11569

10269

21919

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

57198

41382

78422

84547

65997

41026

44569

32674

69499

35739

45396

72074

FEULS

53952

76245

79902

102115

85655

101861

84396

70814

91046

107977

94444

68155

CAPITAL
GOODS

135823

75286

100206

105932

94789

113027

138947

102941

163623

148630

138510

105777

      Transport

57503

26506

20064

23389

34290

48350

47912

65486

90775

78666

41962

34904

      Agricultural

7846

5585

21140

29386

5800

8553

11874

718

8786

6179

9989

3388

      Industrial

70474

43195

59002

53157

54699

56124

79161

36737

64062

63785

86559

67485

CONSUMER
GOODS

79328

52673

89707

76331

95096

95021

82524

67387

123043

105170

103834

114536

      Consumer Durables

24653

20934

27059

29188

38742

24160

26244

18932

54077

29231

43855

34954

      Consumer Non-durables

54675

31739

62648

47143

56354

70861

56280

48455

68966

75939

59979

79582

MISCELLANEOUS

645

8649

7097

14141

155

10672

5

37

467

925

227

668

TOTAL
IMPORTS

339535

264856

369307

399475

349602

376229

360621

294822

460545

410010

392680

383129

 

 

 

 

 

 

1982/83 I

II

III

IV

1983/84 I

II

III

IV

1984/85 I

II

III

IV

RAW
MATTERIALS

10765

16622

17488

15322

26755

14768

12558

18747

10570

14136

11401

13543

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

57927

46735

62112

83432

51803

51191

70869

68338

53480

86150

43078

57744

FEULS

120548

116635

91031

68781

94789

96860

92505

95525

59813

84818

66155

79309

CAPITAL
GOODS

138540

154409

133045

150598

169899

176627

129952

453716

85241

107402

135163

149817

      Transport

48758

37823

40520

41122

37509

102542

45838

276142

39529

35296

48666

62669

      Agricultural

2682

4609

5271

23507

4364

40878

3185

4394

6183

4604

7180

24732

      Industrial

87100

111977

87254

85969

128026

33207

80929

173180

39529

67502

79317

62416

CONSUMER
GOODS

106500

82845

125356

148551

117119

106867

89049

120821

105106

121901

165077

252092

      Consumer Durables

35818

28494

28186

43750

24005

30059

27565

30576

27506

34272

29749

41785

      Consumer Non-durables

70682

54351

97170

104801

93114

76808

61484

90245

77600

87629

135328

210307

MISCELLANEOUS

482

17

449

17

57

5902

1831

507

1083

802

171

114

TOTAL
IMPORTS

434762

417263

429481

466701

460422

452215

396764

757654

315293

415209

421045

552619

 

 

 

1985/86 I

II

III

IV

1986/87 I

II

III

IV

1987/88 I

II

III

IV

RAW
MATTERIALS

16457

33503

17611

15756

12586

9814

20104

6975

12614

14746

16384

15227

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

45238

60233

68426

84349

83833

55055

63440

67573

75150

117736

69121

45953

FEULS

58291

99093

58758

36430

65433

51807

50516

58113

59528

50870

64697

41519

CAPITAL
GOODS

160326

182345

194964

208740

240182

215954

196555

214013

211946

355013

315872

198604

      Transport

65606

77546

72670

84087

95962

95587

10102

78634

72022

207635

105985

98354

      Agricultural

14421

12546

17824

30199

16369

7346

8561

4854

19918

17719

13460

6339

      Industrial

80299

92253

104470

94454

127851

113021

177892

130525

120006

129659

196427

93911

CONSUMER
GOODS

198978

224975

210967

234975

268161

147561

201789

112010

148003

142130

130714

174532

      Consumer Durables

33401

36907

38542

29328

45611

42540

49926

34097

54720

44435

43489

46408

      Consumer Non-durables

165577

188068

172425

205647

222550

105021

151863

77913

93283

97695

87225

128124

MISCELLANEOUS

2139

711

1275

174

224

1248

1812

1188

5684

1255

828

547

TOTAL
IMPORTS

481429

600860

552001

580424

670419

481439

534216

459872

512925

681750

597616

476382

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1988/89 I

II

III

IV

1989/90 I

II

III

IV

1990/91 I

II

III

IV

RAW
MATTERIALS

13692

14494

12904

13434

16320

15433

14938

11134

38902

10870

6530

610

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

92852

59902

112373

91646

116532

67602

60483

71019

85539

45780

96460

9450

FEULS

47789

67215

48757

58701

55701

55467

68489

42003

93873

60780

26430

29350

CAPITAL
GOODS

315784

194182

156877

155745

194431

205830

150465

146984

239174

362030

321920

44610

      Transport

190567

70989

49196

43746

32009

44439

34764

36802

62937

156210

216880

17400

      Agricultural

1690

2853

3454

5906

4820

7421

2280

3110

3481

8060

6050

450

      Industrial

123527

120340

104227

106093

157602

153970

113421

107072

172756

197760

98990

26760

CONSUMER
GOODS

140641

218785

165401

123991

123412

154602

108865

124150

278008

215240

117370

31910

      Consumer Durables

39788

53009

50854

56445

52620

47140

50091

68312

78360

65230

52570

16330

      Consumer Non-durables

100853

165776

114547

67546

70792

107462

58774

55838

199648

150010

64800

15580

MISCELLANEOUS

1507

898

1098

1681

2379

25241

94

354

6203

3940

8270

620

TOTAL
IMPORTS

612265

555476

497410

445198

508775

524175

403334

395644

741699

698640

576980

116550

 

 

 

1991/92 I

II

III

IV

1992/93 I

II

III

IV

1993/94 I

II

III

IV

RAW
MATTERIALS

2336

3513

3551

2418

12548

11255

20072

27061

7293

25730

27951

25526

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

18824

35969

24146

47957

44347

72159

91961

118014

156091

234564

156674

224971

FEULS

33458

14678

36232

108854

171667

163703

208712

276703

164780

253270

153902

153648

CAPITAL
GOODS

40747

187972

224102

111285

110657

724508

212330

217957

259961

347903

326534

451102

      Transport

18214

145501

167587

48057

47943

622368

78461

93402

129346

144246

151074

211834

      Agricultural

569

1059

800

919

1989

3180

1812

2453

2507

6357

17030

7806

      Industrial

21964

41412

55715

62309

60725

98960

132057

122102

128108

197300

158430

231462

CONSUMER
GOODS

53842

70529

78173

93200

121540

438089

293431

279851

304746

427807

387900

544347

      Consumer Durables

24050

30476

30448

35187

49556

68045

74000

70626

101306

129387

105331

126676

      Consumer Non-durables

29792

40053

47725

58013

71984

370044

219431

209225

203440

298420

282569

417671

MISCELLANEOUS

52

38

369652

249383

232

704

984

236

6189

1061

96020

2430

TOTAL
IMPORTS

149259

312699

735856

613097

460991

1410418

827490

919822

899060

1290335

1148981

1402024

 

 

 

 

 

 

1994/95 I

II

III

IV

1995/96 I

II

III

IV

1996/97 I

II

III

IV

RAW
MATTERIALS

8569

50000

31630

40660

66620

43570

45858

23714

39951

58340

35411

39948

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

194996

199417

275783

442470

363820

209700

402588

286250

374847

541690

365464

347678

      Chemicals

45423

50761

42992

76350

75510

83250

61613

64983

76078

75069

44633

72205

      Fertilizers

10217

34.19

62005

188130

42530

2710

56398

62059

0

137620

40739

150.58

      Textile Materials

24895

33502

27273

23200

47940

33100

19668

18074

33153

37618

44717

41718

      Others

114461

115120

143513

154780

197830

90650

264910

141134

265616

291384

235375

233604

FEULS

305603

273719

199611

214400

275320

91140

120975

447112

164726

28792

33533

220392

     Crude Petroleum

127391

149793

154227

91140

120320

56400

0

0

0

0

516.05

76370

     Petroleum Products

178200

123839

45382

123140

154620

34710

112516

184669

133787

16265

32945

123121

     Others

12

87

1

120

470

30

8459.6

262443

30939

12527

71.49

20901

CAPITAL
GOODS

433283

487117

478953

686620

639590

665980

766535

523394

668716

709318

823409

1E+06

      Transport

163926

244704

214580

253320

310990

279080

392361

261009

312195

249935

400027

417664

           Tyres for heavy vehicles

15396

57335

26640

23510

43200

38230

45726

32803

60274

63171

63811

45626

           Heavy road motor vehicles

143216

186475

187034

225250

265570

234590

342232

222266

157959

182710

227351

221375

           Aircraft

5259

879

772

2430

1630

400

4145.9

5177.3

92107

3440.2

108671

149669

           Others

55

15

134

2120

590

5860

257.11

762.32

1855.5

614.21

194.24

994.39

      Agricultural

40522

13976

6276

66520

18950

14900

23542

20046

13362

27042

24322

20440

      Industrial

228835

228437

258097

366790

309650

372000

350631

242340

343159

432342

399060

663727

CONSUMER
GOODS

606552

513664

403595

601470

804490

762400

458946

413015

420858

410383

500878

422175

      Consumer Durables

111083

135673

147195

174430

177610

176040

206315

159571

185336

199364

240998

202374

            Radio & Television

11848

11686

16988

20160

14740

12590

16583

31949

18812

15537

0

0

           Tyres, cars, and other vehicles

7935

5081

6253

7060

7410

13700

15333

10551

18041

14534

14661

8542.8

            Cars and other vehicles

41719

53628

67003

76460

79210

79210

96080

50434

62587

81215

75032

73358

            Others

49581

65278

56951

70750

76250

70550

78319

66637

85897

88078

151304

120473

      Consumer Non-durables

495469

377991

256400

427040

626880

586360

252631

253444

235522

211020

259880

219802

           Cereals

340021

204952

68986

239620

36630

395440

34761

87208

3257.8

3989.4

2899.1

5005.9

          Other Food

54630

57752

38417

70860

10530

23540

41958

19624

27501

22655

23826

18600

          Medical and pharmaceutical

34221

54693

77434

40460

29210

51610

49983

35231

40859

39049

37123

39621

         Textile Fabrics

25240

27492

37292

36310

503600

60030

74772

59515

61728

75822

97210

69814

         Others

41357

33102

34271

39800

46920

65740

51157

51866

102177

69504

98821

86760

MISCELLANEOUS

33529

1582

41688

21360

1350

6460

4210

132242

10234

56777

14779

75.97

TOTAL
IMPORTS

1582532

1525499

1431260

2006980

2151190

1779250

1799112

1825727

1679332

1805300

1773472

2132100

 

 

 

1997/98 I

II

III

IV

1998/99 I

II

III

IV

RAW
MATTERIALS

44270.995

46351.928

54538.367

46130.117

24096.452

56136.997

56200

67500

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

388236.4

348302.84

338782.29

451782.59

530189.87

509500

520700

405800

      Chemicals

74522.598

50280.118

46662.394

76741.315

61487.505

86859.483

99500

101100

      Fertilizers

0

201.655

21753.074

29214.928

162311.95

53548.704

90708.029

70822.005

      Textile Materials

31634.144

31330.194

31133.482

41219.415

30863.241

25931.928

30300

33800

      Others

282079.65

266490.88

239233.34

304606.93

275527.17

343159.89

300200

200000

FEULS

341869.75

168768.22

1429842.4

342350.09

555953.76

233417.5

357900

182600

     Crude Petroleum

173.04

120.505

165819.65

355.34069

2.425

2278.9821

0

0

     Petroleum Products

341079.58

168408.68

1263724.9

341123.81

525799.63

226405.28

356600

180800

     Others

617.125

239.029

297.89004

870.93575

30151.703

4733.2374

1300

1800

CAPITAL
GOODS

655913.34

693607.35

719316.42

711679.26

738281.6

904683.98

1167700

1134300

      Transport

203390.59

153224.27

179292.32

134589.87

171888.19

244818.66

325200

417600

           Tyres for heavy vehicles

44161.584

45378.733

55986.421

41667.938

40116.559

65732.15

56400

59800

           Heavy road motor vehicles

159011.04

105909.95

122162.54

91821.486

95513.983

172230.04

266600

351900

           Aircraft

93.92702

1275.162

70.37403

347.57678

4101.4577

5932.5511

1300

5300

           Others

124.03618

660.42215

1072.9838

752.8712

32156.191

923.91298

900

700

      Agricultural

20402.821

14773.17

16189.162

15384.375

21444.98

38028.122

25300

26800

      Industrial

432119.93

525609.91

523834.94

561705.02

544948.43

621837.2

817200

689800

CONSUMER
GOODS

477305

412134.43

479464.67

470466.33

705039.71

988570.47

847900

746900

     
Consumer Durables

206337.69

183851.76

211250.42

183225.98

257078.49

311447.65

300600

281400

            Radio & Television

0

0

0

0

0

0

41900

32200

            Tires, cars, and other vehicles

8247.3058

9488.1441

8928.9443

6873.9111

8909.6476

11530.365

10500

7892.705

            Cars and other vehicles

79560.145

58504.457

87832.718

66842.564

88346.794

88997.486

96100

129100

            Others

118530.24

115859.16

114488.76

109509.5

159822.04

210919.8

152100

112200

      Consumer Non-durables

270967.31

228282.67

268214.25

287240.35

447961.23

677122.82

547300

465500

           Cereals

4742.0062

15455.038

3804.1199

29649.375

132685.11

220242.58

70700

69100

          Other Food

31671.027

26830.653

36212.439

42219.624

51266.371

80894.171

71900

57300

          Medical and pharmaceutical

37038.631

32392.686

46585.911

41269.412

51432.286

94706.89

118900

95900

         Textile Fabrics

80204.62

72530.63

116781.41

90790.968

121927.45

139734.86

179500

131700

         Others

117311.02

81073.66

64830.373

83310.972

90650.007

141544.31

106300

111700

MISCELLANEOUS

6599.511

1614.7014

10060.592

8565.3672

220940.64

262119.98

283400

202200

TOTAL
IMPORTS

1914195

1670779.5

3032004.8

2030973.7

2774502

2954428.9

3233800

2739300

 

1999/00 I

II

III

IV

2000/01 I

II

III

IV

RAW MATTERIALS

41560.951

54340

32956

32200

43695.76

36072.667

59911.752

59386.626

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

468828.58

414077

410601

375314

476420.43

392432.29

456003.8

645028.48

      Chemicals

93944.027

85149

78278

93860

91505.141

86489.886

109896.38

131491.41

      Fertilizers

138135.95

82305

73335

42354

112912.51

234.9954

7215.1962

6491.5328

      Textile Materials

22050.096

34487

16446

20800

22289.993

34879.887

24857.018

28220.541

      Others

214698.51

212136

242542

218300

249712.78

270827.52

314035.2

478825

FEULS

571165.2

260604

363330

841506

451186.15

427894.76

496012.75

805646.56

     Crude Petroleum

552.10418

30

30

6

0

0

0

0

     Petroleum Products

568672.47

258252

362101

839000

450709.4

425558.58

495733.77

802193.63

     Others

1940.6199

2322

1199

2500

476.749

2336.1822

278.98422

3452.929

CAPITAL
GOODS

1262667

943408

899656

725600

860125.73

797452.26

1063212.5

984129.11

      Transport

358219.67

336660

233357

212800

309457.66

277388.05

374266.34

317384.58

           Tires for heavy vehicles

49720.863

45825

43330

49700

49575.247

56511.911

59640.727

66956.291

           Heavy road motor vehicles

306410.61

282997

189310

160800

257632.25

214826.3

239552.21

223755.24

           Aircraft

952.84038

2136

151

700

1550.617

5209.1839

73985.49

24286.759

           Others

1135.355

5702

566

1600

699.542

840.65749

1087.9081

2386.295

      Agricultural

27169.422

21295

21624

15300

21440.695

17951.007

17046.64

10725.319

      Industrial

877277.86

585453

644675

497500

529227.38

502113.2

671899.54

656019.21

CONSUMER
GOODS

934555.13

1197715

705142

631200

710501.08

897772.26

1148051.8

1141195.7

      Consumer Durables

280864.18

357267

251797

210800

222760.04

309968.42

390778.37

345121.69

            Radio & Television

40908.699

32215

30070

22600

27583.139

42024.314

56807.203

49427.018

            Tires, cars, and other vehicles

4832.042

6819

5732

7900

7661.095

9939.1207

15430.245

15952.386

            Cars and other vehicles

110320.25

209610

107327

94500

91453.404

122814.43

138552.26

126821.84

            Others

124803.18

108623

108668

85800

96062.406

135190.55

179988.66

152920.44

      Consumer Non-durables

653690.96

840448

453345

420400

487741.04

587803.84

757273.39

796074.01

           Cereals

188765.01

388572

67715

53100

37221.725

104665.65

198622.41

307463.86

          Other Food

41950.657

47895

48996

111000

47435.081

64105.787

79609.793

75683.944

          Medical and pharmaceutical

97676.764

97840

41097

41700

77631.347

104180.4

104080.75

82942.022

         Textile Fabrics

147151.87

164872

161484

116100

135449.88

168837.93

207867.88

162037.05

         Others

178146.66

141269

134053

98500

190003

146014.08

167092.56

167947.14

MISCELLANEOUS

102363.96

49138

56300

64160

58398.616

78356.823

123889.47

101138.63

TOTAL
IMPORTS

3381140.8

2919282

2467985

2669980

2600327.8

2629981

3347082

3736525.1

 

 

2001/02 I

II

III

IV

2002/03 I

II

III

RAW
MATTERIALS

75578.059

60976

53557

63960.334

41218.216

32781.31

56048.64

SEMI-FINISHED
GOODS

686755

756174

438554

580989.11

765694.02

560809

493845.2

      Chemicals

114731

90852

72815

79745.696

75214.131

76371.47

85388.64

      Fertilizers

197943

166175

38043

157847.67

207697.12

162999.4

80484.52

      Textile Materials

14592

16523

5907

30424.396

21686.008

27085.34

26217.9

      Others

359489

482624

321789

312982.23

461096.75

294352.8

301754.1

FEULS

467944

914200

139140

765405.76

234673.11

656538

745074.8

     Crude Petroleum

0

0

0

6.87135

0.105

0

 

     Petroleum Products

467944

913642

135505

764327.75

233677.52

655872

744159

     Others

0

558

3635

1071.1236

995.484

665.9669

915.8449

CAPITAL
GOODS

1029659

1089587

1101557.6

880715.51

1038948.7

1068901

1267921

      Transport

310390

304579

300323

279571.36

326533.08

290685.1

448233.9

           Tires for heavy vehicles

67696

54743

37881

46388.371

61274.391

56675.22

53808.13

           Heavy road motor vehicles

206230

210545

240454

227996.83

255940.18

205888.8

326272.6

           Aircraft

35484

36663

20239

4614.0513

8174.0062

26709.18

65554.8

           Others

980

2628

1749

572.10744

1144.5052

1411.848

2598.382

      Agricultural

17104

14163

13229.6

14884.092

9800.0266

14762.76

12768.29

      Industrial

702165

770845

788005

586260.06

702615.58

763453

806918.8

CONSUMER
GOODS

1362178

1644484

1142883

865692.04

1220421.1

1428266

1057054

      Consumer Durables

366010

335444

330559

275940.64

382344.62

422774.5

351766.6

            Radio & Television

49442

40213

64412

43559.796

63454.891

39483.17

61051.5

           Tires, cars, and other vehicles

12823

10535

7399

8197.169

10752.729

13188.22

16291.92

            Cars and other vehicles

129984

132507

134732

111959.28

150887.42

151377.2

125032

            Others

173761

152189

124016

112224.39

157249.58

218725.9

149391.2

      Consumer Non-durables

996168

1309040

812324

589751.4

838076.46

1005491

705287.4

           Cereals

346688

632036

212742

133994.91

292313.45

373044.7

147633.2

          Other Food

128880

159571

106116

60300.028

89286.855

91078.29

81303.7

          Medical and pharmaceutical

106807

120886

116035

77592.802

85305.844

116473.1

90421.42

         Textile Fabrics

175075

226232

209962

205973.1

210271.91

220153.5

271391.9

         Others

238718

170315

167469

111890.56

160898.41

204741.6

114537.2

MISCELLANEOUS

65749

109721

100606

89223.797

140291.32

581610.2

445982.1

TOTAL
IMPORTS

3687863.1

4575142

2976297.6

3245986.6

3441246.4

4328905

4065926

 

 

Annex
C: Value OF COFFEE and TOTAL EXPORTS (Thousands of Birr):1979/80: I-2002/03:
III

Period

1979/80 I

II

III

IV

1980/81 I

II

III

IV

1981/82 I

II

III

IV

Export

229150

199940

242620

277324

203823

154983

199340

281605

161768

149551

203440

281069

   Coffee

162442

104661

172545

192003

143459

55642

122957

202267

101265

43372

141491

194087

   Non-coffee

66708

95279

70075

85321

60364

99341

76383

79338

60503

106179

61949

86982

Import

339535

264856

369307

399475

349602

376229

360621

294822

460545

410010

392680

383129

Exchange
Rate

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

 

Adjusted Values

 

Export

229150

199940

242620

277324

203823

154983

199340

281605

161768

149551

203440

281069

   Coffee

162442

104661

172545

192003

143459

55642

122957

202267

101265

43372

141491

194087

   Non-coffee

66708

95279

70075

85321

60364

99341

76383

79338

60503

106179

61949

86982

Import

339535

264856

369307

399475

349602

376229

360621

294822

460545

410010

392680

383129

 

Continued

Period

1982/83 I

II

III

IV

1983/84 I

II

III

IV

1984/85 I

II

III

IV

Export

186418

165368

211356

246909

210597

163932

253779

302213

218735

88843

174775

261281

   Coffee

105745

73199

142047

175088

122675

80125

177750

209894

13834

19757

112832

195337

   Non-coffee

80673

92169

69309

71821

87922

83807

76029

92319

204901

69086

61943

65944

Import

434762

417263

429481

466701

460422

452215

396764

757654

315293

415209

421045

552619

Exchange
Rate

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

 

Adjusted Values

 

 

Export

186418

165368

211356

246909

210597

163932

253779

302213

218735

88843

174775

261281

   Coffee

105745

73199

142047

175088

122675

80125

177750

209894

13834

19757

112832

195337

   Non-coffee

80673

92169

69309

71821

87922

83807

76029

92319

204901

69086

61943

65944

Import

434762

417263

429481

466701

460422

452215

396764

757654

315293

415209

421045

552619

 

 

Continued

Period

1985/86 I

II

III

IV

1986/87 I

II

III

IV

1987/88 I

II

III

IV

Export

165795

88198

306629

363794

234276

83040

210512

267456

160791

97090

215007

300754

   Coffee

111105

13411

246313

293961

188370

30622

134485

170871

77696

31061

137404

193020

   Non-coffee

54690

74787

60316

69833

45906

52418

76027

96585

83095

66029

77603

107734

Import

481429

600860

552001

580424

670419

481439

534216

459872

512925

681750

597616

476382

Exchange
Rate

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

 

Adjusted Values

Export

165795

88198

306629

363794

234276

83040

210512

267456

160791

97090

215007

300754

   Coffee

111105

13411

246313

293961

188370

30622

134485

170871

77696

31061

137404

193020

   Non-coffee

54690

74787

60316

69833

45906

52418

76027

96585

83095

66029

77603

107734

Import

481429

600860

552001

580424

670419

481439

534216

459872

512925

681750

597616

476382

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Continued

Period

1988/89 I

II

III

IV

1989/90 I

II

III

IV

1990/91 I

II

III

IV

Export

256314

99358

228722

318359

187540

180111

174465

194690

139546

98729

128172

176038

   Coffee

192734

37605

164359

231750

103371

108564

80281

112887

50854

27299

79517

110781

   Non-coffee

63580

61753

64363

86609

84169

71547

94184

81803

88692

71430

48655

65257

Import

612265

555476

497410

445198

508775

524175

403334

395644

741699

698640

576980

116550

Exchange
Rate

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

 

Adjusted Values

 

Export

256314

99358

228722

318359

187540

180111

174465

194690

139546

98729

128172

176038

   Coffee

192734

37605

164359

231750

103371

108564

80281

112887

50854

27299

79517

110781

   Non-coffee

63580

61753

64363

86609

84169

71547

94184

81803

88692

71430

48655

65257

Import

612265

555476

497410

445198

508775

524175

403334

395644

741699

698640

576980

116550

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Continued

Period

1991/92 I

II

III

IV

1992/93 I

II

III

IV

1993/94 I

II

III

IV

Export

49435

36787

81511

111293

89053

168537

235276

307948

205661

245275

271844

515949

   Coffee

27139

23163

51804

66218

63756

83650

155373

234203

142307

100146

133043

342523

   Non-coffee

22296

13624

29707

45075

25297

84887

79903

73745

63354

145129

138801

173426

Import

149259

312699

735856

613097

460991

1410418

827490

919822

899060

1290335

1148981

1402024

Exchange
Rate

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

5.0091

5.472667

5.468367

5.913433

6.243233

 

Adjusted Values

Export

49435

36787

81511

111293

89053

168537

235276

127258.9

77789.91

92846.6

95159.11

171067.5

   Coffee

27139

23163

51804

66218

63756

83650

155373

96783.9

53826.68

37909.35

46571.76

113566.6

   Non-coffee

22296

13624

29707

45075

25297

84887

79903

30474.97

23963.23

54937.25

48587.35

57500.95

Import

149259

312699

735856

613097

460991

1410418

827490

380114.5

340063.5

488444.5

402201.3

464853.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Continued

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Period

1994/95 I

II

III

IV

1995/96 I

II

III

IV

1996/97 I

II

III

IV

Export

549695

725458

468184

988708.6

691823

454241.8

548748.7

844242.4

684464.4

573104.1

860782.4

1367275

   Coffee

394156

475808

215851

713218.7

491228.2

279739

335157.1

617883.8

537983.9

227354.5

529877.1

1012178

   Non-coffee

155539

249650

252333

275489.9

200594.8

174502.8

213591.7

226358.6

146480.5

345749.6

330905.3

355096.9

Import

1582532

1525499

1431260

2006980

2151190

1779250

1799112

1825727

1679332

1805300

1773472

2132100

Exchange
Rate

6.197233

6.2732

6.2594

6.272167

6.304967

6.303167

6.337367

6.325633

6.3455

6.3974

6.580133

6.679633

 

Adjusted Values

Export

183609.1

239383.1

154829.7

326303

227134.2

149175.9

179240

276269.8

223282.9

185438.7

270787.8

423714.7

   Coffee

131656

157004.8

71382.49

235383.2

161276.4

91868.08

109473.7

202196.3

175498.6

73564.87

166690.5

313671.2

   Non-coffee

51953.14

82378.29

83447.19

90919.8

65857.79

57307.82

69766.31

74073.58

47784.21

111873.8

104097.3

110043.6

Import

528597.4

503376.7

473321.4

662362.6

706262.8

584317

587651.5

597451

547823.9

584138.9

557904.8

660732

 

 

 

 

Continued

Period

1997/98 I

II

III

IV

1998/99 I

II

III

IV

1999/00 I

II

III

IV

Export

758766.7

967259.9

1047257

1368298

918157.7

632275

794220.9

1225232

919959.6

771639.4

1041299

1224904

   Coffee

489949.9

535041.7

789496.4

1075043

529797.3

308750.6

464935

809229.8

540248.2

317390.5

599129.6

676877.2

   Non-coffee

268816.8

432218.2

257760.9

293255.3

388360.4

323524.4

329285.8

416001.8

379711.4

454248.8

442169.6

548026.6

Import

1914195

1670779

3032005

2030974

2774502

2954429

3233800

2739300

3381141

2919282

2467985

2669980

Exchange
Rate

6.770967

6.816433

6.909367

7.03

7.152867

7.371082

7.592482

7.928

8.1196

8.126833

8.1489

8.197233

 

Adjusted Values

 

Export

231967.9

293735.4

313751.3

402898.5

265709.8

177560

216534.9

319907.9

234533.3

196545.6

264512.9

309317.9

   Coffee

149786

162480.3

236527.8

316548.8

153320.4

86705.54

126759

211289.8

137730.2

80843.1

152192.1

170927.9

   Non-coffee

82181.87

131255.1

77223.44

86349.7

112389.3

90854.44

89775.87

108618

96803.11

115702.5

112320.8

138390

Import

585202.1

507378.8

908368.3

598025

802925.5

829683.8

881657.2

715231

861983.5

743575.4

626922.5

674234.6

 

Continued

Period

2000/01 I

II

III

IV

2001/02 I

II

III

IV

2002/03 I

II

III

Export

1040091

684368.7

1026398

1115747

807109.2

900759.2

916991.2

1239460

960279.8

997743.9

1072448

   Coffee

552910.2

269206.9

256063.7

441919.8

293402.7

234482.7

338319.1

527604.8

281873.3

222200.7

360520.2

   Non-coffee

487181.1

415161.8

770334.7

673827.5

513706.6

666276.5

578672.1

711855.6

678406.5

775543.2

711927.8

Import

2600328

2629981

3347082

3736525

3687863

4575142

2976298

3245987

3721114

4328905

4065926

Exchange
Rate

8.239267

8.283633

8.357467

8.431133

8.492714

8.5525

8.5605

8.5643

8.5693

8.5768

8.5845

 

Adjusted Values

 

 

Export

261308.3

171017.1

254221.1

273936.7

196723.5

218014.8

221736.1

299578.8

231965.2

240804.3

258601.8

   Coffee

138910.9

67272.22

63422.56

108499.5

71513.48

56752.9

81808.37

127522.6

68089.31

53627.86

86933.04

   Non-coffee

122397.4

103744.9

190798.6

165437.2

125210

161261.9

139927.7

172056.2

163875.9

187176.4

171668.8

Import

653295.8

657206.9

829014.4

917386.4

898873.6

1107342

719693.5

784558.2

898872.2

1044776

980425.9

 

 

 

 

Appendix
D: Domestic Credit and Foreign Assets: 1991/92: I-2002/03:III

 

Period

Domestic
Credit

Claims on
Central Government, Net

Claims on
Non-Central Government, Net

Net
Foreign Assets

1991/92:I

9285.9

6361.2

2924.7

274.5

II

9458.9

6459.6

2999.3

319.3

III

9851.1

6756.7

3094.4

345.5

IV

10105.9

7033.6

3072.3

403

1992/93:I

10364.6

7320.2

3044.4

396.5

II

10911.8

7507.9

3403.9

1024.3

III

11906.8

7819.4

4087.4

894.7

IV

12166.8

7824.9

4341.9

809.6

1993/94:I

12310.9

7871

4439.9

2187.1

II

11493.4

6733.6

4759.8

2741.2

III

11729.9

8381.3

3348.6

3012.7

IV

12744.2

9616.1

3128.1

3764.6

1994/95: I

12665.4

9222

3443.4

3918.9

II

12476.8

8681.4

3795.4

4546.9

III

13192.6

8494.3

4698.3

4610

IV

13873.4

9024.1

4849.3

4658.6

1995/96:I

14178

8626

5552

4956.3

II

14422.3

8282.6

6139.7

4357.8

III

14705.3

7791.2

6914.1

2949.3

IV

15193.6

7869.9

7323.7

3542.4

1996/97:I

16468.1

8882

7586.1

5467.2

II

16181.1

7781.8

8399.3

4599.2

III

16891.2

7639

9252.2

4189.5

IV

16435.1

7925.5

8509.6

5204.4

1997/98:I

16601.4

8114.6

8486.8

5144.3

II

17541.4

8219.7

9321.7

5049.9

III

16915.4

6977.6

9937.8

5776.4

IV

18505.7

8840.2

9665.5

5434.7

1998/99:I

18456.6

8961.4

9495.2

5559.8

II

18936.3

8877.5

10058.8

5526.2

III

19540.9

8876.1

10664.8

5819.5

IV

19994.7

9567.6

10427.1

 

Period

Domestic
Credit

Claims on
Central Government, Net

Claims on
Non-Central Government, Net

Net
Foreign Assets

1999/00:I

22036.7

11465

10571.7

5788.2

II

23820

12133

11687

5016.3

III

25216.7

13240.6

11976.1

4395.1

IV

27072.2

15574

11498.2

4428.5

2000/01:I

27266.269

16046.91

11219.36

5016.856

           II

27578.131

15638.164

11939.97

4639.472

          III

27167.277

15191.258

11976.02

4615.952

          IV

27551.654

15171.041

12380.61

4799.953

 2001/02:I

27484.441

15436.412

12048.03

5792.308

         II

26949.943

14666.911

12283.03

5994.174

        III

27118.698

15089.874

12028.82

6308.911

       IV

27528.812

15985.1

11543.71

7822.468

  2002/03:I

27419.127

16400.542

11018.59

8785.127

    II

26453.039

15030.997

11422.04

10447.38

   III

26765.3

15164.1

11601.2

10743.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Appendix
E: Electricity Energy Production: 1973/74:I-2002/03:III

Period

Hydro
Power

Thermal
Power

Geothermal

Total   (KWH)

1973/74 I

89311

7494

 

96805

II

86279

8121

 

94400

III

86751

8866

 

95617

IV

81845

8437

 

90282

1974/75 I

91309

8502

 

99811

II

87933

9015

 

96948

III

85403

9409

 

94812

IV

83183

9041

 

92224

1975/76 I

92882

7949

 

100831

II

87091

8724

 

95815

III

86814

9972

 

96786

IV

89933

9398

 

99331

1976/77 I

94526

9575

 

104101

II

91713

10695

 

102408

III

91894

11376

 

103270

IV

91798

10662

 

102460

1977/78 I

96068

10995

 

107063

II

95050

10452

 

105502

III

95958

11500

 

107458

IV

98264

11226

 

109490

1978/79 I

108731

10343

 

119074

II

102506

11629

 

114135

III

102856

11635

 

114491

IV

106874

11806

 

118680

1979/80 I

122553

15791

 

138344

II

118056

11464

 

129520

III

120250

13257

 

133507

IV

121362

13405

 

134767

1980/81 I

          125559

   
        19876

 

         145435

II

116525

20512

 

137037

III

121994

18331

 

140325

IV

124737

14171

 

138908

1981/82 I

122886

 

 

122886

II

130502

 

 

130502

III

140500

 

 

140500

IV

140103

 

 

140103

1982/83 I

145165

 

 

145165

II

147139

12578

 

159717

III

153545.1

11781

1635.4

166961.5

IV

149094

13755

 

162849

1983/84 I

163566

14768

 

178334

II

163457

13619

 

177076

III

163965.3

13288.9

12988.9

190243.1

IV

166064.4

15696.9

15696.9

197458.2

 

 

 

Period

 

Hydro
Power

 

Thermal
Power

 

Geothermal

 

Total   (KWH)

1984/85 I

191323.9

17840

 

209163.9

II

171438

11520

 

182958

III

184484.6

1320.4

 

185805

IV

180969.7

12678.3

 

193648

1985/86 I

202095

11755.3

 

213850.3

II

206116.8

11431.8

 

217548.6

III

210658.5

10229.2

 

220887.7

IV

209921.7

11707.1

 

221628.8

1986/87 I

215618.3

13678.2

 

229296.5

II

225101.1

11127.6

 

236228.7

III

224545.8

11816.9

 

236362.7

IV

218674.8

12070.4

 

230745.2

1987/88 I

233529.4

15241.4

 

248770.8

II

229009.4

10547.7

 

239557.1

III

243892.6

10494.5

 

254387.1

IV

242505

10083

 

252588

1988/89 I

256323

15741

 

272064

II

245778.6

10339.3

 

256117.9

III

245042.5

7727.8

 

252770.3

IV

256827

11098.5

 

267925.5

1989/90 I

273511.5

82317

 

355828.5

II

268392.4

6202.1

 

274594.5

III

272665.7

7317.1

 

279982.8

IV

273355.7

8160.1

 

281515.8

1990/91 I

287617.6

12715.3

 

300332.9

II

278183.6

7947.8

 

286131.4

III

280566.5

6200

 

286766.5

IV

251210.1

4371.1

 

255581.2

1991/92 I

293558.3

2859.9

 

296418.2

II

278845.2

4699.3

 

283544.5

III

252152.1

6535.3

 

258687.4

IV

272258.4

5838.2

 

278096.6

1992/93 I

304540.7

6111.8

 

310652.5

II

304548

5804.2

 

310352.2

III

333286.6

7142.2

 

340428.8

IV

315843

7854.7

 

323697.7

1993/94 I

349884.7

9136.2

 

359020.9

II

340749.6

8536.1

 

349285.7

III

334488.1

8851.9

 

343340

IV

333960.3

18137.4

 

352097.7

1994/95 I

356084.8

9133.3

 

365218.1

II

351282.6

8129.2

 

359411.8

III

357659.9

9038.1

 

366698

IV

351407.1

8961.8

 

360368.9

Period

Hydro
Power

Thermal
Power

Geothermal

Total   (KWH)

1995/96 I

382147

9918

 

392065

II

369233.7

10435.7

 

379669.4

III

379030.4

10689.1

 

389719.5

IV

376799.8

11138.8

 

387938.6

1996/97 I

407634

11733

 

419367

II

386851

11356

 

398207

III

387899.1

12063.5

 

399962.6

IV

383280.1

12358.3

 

395638.4

1997/98 I

400578.9

13562.6

 

414141.5

II

398467.9

12511

 

410978.9

III

397923.2

12885.5

0

410808.7

IV

381598.2

9609.8

0

391208

1998/99 I

425811.5

5431.6

6601.2

437844.3

II

406912.1

4500.6

23265.9

434678.6

III

383702.7

4955.1

6809.2

395467

IV

383741

5036.5

6622.5

395400

1999/00 I

425842

5389.3

8265.2

439496.5

II

407052.7

5387.4

6579.7

419019.8

III

412246.8

4591.9

2673.4

419512.1

IV

388581.1

6981.8

2474.5

398037.4

2000/01 I

428131.1

4606.6

2905.6

435643.3

II

442173.1

3836.9

444.1

446454.1

III

444870

4294

1695

450859

IV

462680.9

3738.2

29.1

466448.2

2001/02 I

494953.6

4075.2

0

499028.8

II

492722.5

4202.2

0

496924.7

III

491337.1

3983.4

0

495320.5

IV

494953.6

4075.2

0

499028.8

2002/03 I

519779.2

4711

 

524490.2

II

677831.2

10732.1

 

688563.3

III

498354.4

0

0

498354.4

Appendix
F: Number and Capital of Investment Projects Approved (millions of Birr) and
Employment Creation

 

Total

 

 

Domestic
(private)

 

Foreign

 

 

Public

 

 

Period

No

Capital

Emp’t

No

Domestic

Emp’t

No

Foreign

Emp’t

No

Public

Emp’t

1997/98:Q
I

284

2191.2

17999

266

1810.5

16536

18

380.7

1463

 

 

 

Q.II

172

1783.8

9898

158

-224.7

8423

14

2008.5

1475

 

 

 

Q.III

191

1986.7

19838

160

914.1

10906

31

1072.6

8932

 

 

 

Q.IV

223

1715.5

17556

205

1116.6

14876

18

598.9

2680

 

 

 

1998/99:Q.I

265

1010.8

16934

257

746.6

15906

8

264.2

1028

 

 

 

Q.II

166

4727.9

16328

160

4157.5

15823

6

570.4

505

 

 

 

Q.III

137

1020.14

10348

129

721.12

7959

8

299.02

2389

 

 

 

QIV

135

1198.21

8755

127

947.41

8088

8

250.8

667

 

 

 

1999/00:Q.
I

163

4365

11892

145

989.5

10326

14

397.3

1150

4

2978.2

416

Q.II

144

2962.98

21006

129

2957.39

19269

14

430.61

1737

1

2574.98

0

Q.III

155

1630.25

17719

145

963.29

13253

7

493.71

4455

3

173.25

11

QIV

158

2155.42

40046

140

1786.87

8130

17

335.16

31896

1

33.39

20

2000/01:Q.
I

177

    1,330.41

8827

        166

 1,035.34

7190

8

276.54

1581

3

18.5307

56

Q.II

185

1787.421

13026

172

1198.067

9520

12

576.8549

3468

1

12.4987

38

Q.III

176

2866.1

14211

   
166.00

1662.9

      13,086

            8

     1,054

     1,071

            2

        149

          54

QIV

143

2687.98

9161

129

1677.92

7093

13

932.89

1628

1

77.17

440

2001/02:Q.
I

186

2712.005

17814

    175.00

1955.848

12836

9

739.4118

3906

2

16.7454

1072

Q.II

203

2071.3

15263

186

1542.995

12418

12

257.823

2232

5

270.482

613

Q.III

213

2756.332

9547

206

1339.206

8342

5

178.7089

753

2

1238.417

452

QIV

192

1587.83

11287

183

1223.66

7333

8

290.9804

3919

1

73.1899

35

2002/03:Q.
I

308

3263.06

17644

294

1915.41

  15,910.00

14

1347.7

1734

0

0

0

Q.II

259

3536.07

17734

249

3123.29

16691

     10.00

412.78

1043

0

0

0

Q.III

310

2691.91

15492

280

2126.48

11848

     30.00

565.43

3644

0

0

0

Q.IV

256

3691.62

17288

219

1970.96

9039

32

1114.52

8110

5

606.14

139

 

---

[1] To
capture the relative quarter specific price stability, the inflation rate of a
quarter for successive years is used. For example, the figure 0.8 for the first
quarter is calculated as a six year average of percentage changes between
average CPI over the first quarter of successive years.