Mogadishu chaos engulfs the region

As Mogadishu endures an eighth day of fighting, one sombre conclusion is unmistakable. A new regional war is now being fought in the Horn of Africa.

The latest clashes are probably among the bloodiest in Somalia since America’s disastrous intervention ended 13 years ago. Ethiopia’s army – one of Africa’s best equipped – has used heavy artillery to raze large areas of the capital.

This direct involvement by a foreign power has transformed the situation. Sporadic fighting has taken place across southern Somalia since the central government was destroyed in 1991. But Ethiopia’s [Woyanne] intervention means that Somalia’s chaos has sucked in its largest neighbour and become a cross-border war.

When Ethiopia’s [Woyanne] incursion into southern Somalia began in earnest four months ago, it appeared an unqualified success. At a stroke, the lightning military offensive launched by Meles Zenawi, the Ethiopian dictator, threw an extremist Islamic regime out of Mogadishu.

Ethiopian [Woyanne] troops installed Somalia’s internationally recognised government in the country’s capital for the first time. Abdullahi Yusuf, Somalia’s official president, was able to move into his Mogadishu residence, the Villa Somalia.

But this success was deceptive. The Islamic militias were disorganised and easily defeated by Ethiopian [Woyanne] forces. Yet they were not destroyed. Instead, they melted away only to reappear as insurgents and carry out hit-and-run attacks.

President Yusuf’s arrival in Mogadishu was inherently provocative in a country torn by bitter clan rivalries. Mr Yusuf, a 72-year-old warlord, comes from the Darod clan and is a long-standing ally of Ethiopia.

Most people in Mogadishu are from the Hawiye clan, the traditional enemies of the Darod. Moreover, the capital’s people loath the old warlords – like Mr Yusuf – who destroyed their city before the Islamic extremists imposed a measure of order. They also harbour an abiding hatred of Ethiopia, dating from the brutal war the two neighbours fought over the Ogaden region in 1977. [At that time Meles was in Somalia assisting the Siad Bare regime in its invasion of Ethiopia]

So the arrival of Ethiopian [Woyanne] troops and a Darod president was a recipe for chaos. The violence which has now displaced about 350,000 should have come as no surprise. Ripples of chaos are now spreading outwards from Mogadishu. Ethiopia [the Woyanne regime] is already at war, not only on the streets of its neighbour’s capital but also in its home provinces. Rebels drawn from Ethiopia’s Somali minority have been especially active recently, striking an oil installation in the Ogaden on Tuesday, killing 74 people including nine Chinese.

Kenya already hosts about 160,000 refugees from Somalia. It has been forced to close its north-eastern border in an effort to protect its territory from its neighbour’s chaos. But Kenya is awash with illegal weapons, thanks largely to its neighbour’s anarchy. Moreover, there is no doubt that Islamic terrorists based in Somalia have crossed into Kenya.

The bombings of the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam in 1998 and the destruction of a hotel in Mombasa in 2002 – accompanied by a failed attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner with a missile – were all organised from across the border. President Mwai Kibaki’s government is all too aware of the damage a terrorist attack would do to the country’s vital tourist trade. Many of Kenya’s most popular attractions are within easy reach of Somalia. So the fighting in Mogadishu threatens East Africa as a whole. Ethiopia [Woyanne] wants to withdraw its troops and hand over to a stabilisation force commanded by the African Union, an alliance of all 53 countries on the continent.

But this is utterly fanciful. Hardly any African governments are willing to risk sending troops to an AU force.

Ethiopia [Woyanne] will have to fight on – and its fire power may temporarily subdue the city. But Somalia’s tragedy will continue to unfold.

Source: Telegraph