By Wodaje Ketema
If a system is malfunctioning, says Tony Blair in his new book, Tony Blair A Journey (2010: 249), it does need to change, whether that change be gradual or abrupt. There is a regime that is oppressive and dictatorial, but may decide to go into the right direction of reform despite it is slow; but there is also a regime whose very nature lies in its oppression. This regime will not change, not by evolution, not by the exercise of its own will- because that will is directed towards oppression- and for a long time, at least, it will not change by the will of the people who, because they are oppressed, lack the means to overthrow the regime.
Tunisia had a malfunctioning system, a system whose very nature lies in its oppression. It had a system that failed to address the will of the people, which is freedom- the freedom from fear, the freedom from persecution, the freedom from hunger and death and the freedom from “I now for you” mentality. Ben Ali’s regime had stifled those freedoms for the last 20 plus years, but couldn’t sustain that oppression for long. The younger generation, the globalised generation, couldn’t accept a 19th c system, a system that makes God’s children slaves and sub humans. The Tunisian boys and girls decided to dismantle that archaic system, and did they succeed. President Ben Ali was disgracefully overthrown and fled to Saudi Arabia to join another dictator there. However, the journey of Tunisia is not yet finished; the daunting task is still ahead. But, they have repossessed the “ball of choice”. They have now a choice- a choice to choose freedom or a choice to choose slavery. That is not the case in Ethiopia and in most parts of Africa.
Zenawi’s regime is a carbon copy of Ben Ali’s regime except that the former is also a racist. Like Ben Ali’s regime, Zenawi’s regime depends on oppression, killing and persecution of Ethiopians; but unlike the former, the later encourages people to fight and kill each other with its divide and conquer policy. That is the difference between the two regimes. Both are dangerous, but Zenawi’s is evil.
I have no doubt that the fire that started in Tunisia will expand to Ethiopia and devour Zenawi’s regime in a short period of time. Given the existing economic turmoil and political repression, we will witness a revolution of a huge magnitude sooner than later. The question is not when that revolution will exactly occur , but what consequence will it have and who is to lead it responsibly when that revolution occurs. Will the fire stop after destroying Zenawi’s archaic regime or will it expand to devour his ethnic group ?
The experience of 2005 election tells that there will be more bloodshed before Zenawi quits power. It could be more than what we have witnessed in June and November 2005; thousands could be maimed and hundreds of buildings destroyed. There could be ethnic cleansing as witnessed in Rwanda. Tigreans could face the fate of the Tutsis. The 2005 election proved that the people of Ethiopia have a huge grudge against the Tigreans who gave unequivocal support to the regime. It doesn’t seem that the Tigreans are repenting from their sins, they are still ardent supporters of the regime. There are pockets of Tigreans who don’t support the evil machination of zenawi’s regime, but I am sure when the time comes no one will have time to sift the chaff from the grain. That is why the Tigreans are time and again advised to alienate themselves from Zenawi’s regime before the night falls, which is fast approaching.
We have seen the beginning of the end in the 2005 election. Some Tigreans were truly Targeted. Most of them were gathering in meeting halls for fear of persecution. Zenawi could have used the story for its own evil ends, but the fact did occur that some Tigreans were hiding in bunkers. What worries me is the fate of the innocent Tigreans. I am sorry for them, and I wish God protect them. That is why I shiver when I think of Tunisia. I am smelling Rwanda is in the making in Ethiopia. We are not as luckily as the Tunisians, whose government didn’t choose to play with a race card.
I think of whether we have a political party that can shape the direction of the upcoming revolution. Wild revolutions are dangerous for a nation, they have to be tamed on time otherwise they will devour all dry leaves. When I think of political parties in Ethiopia, I don’t think that they have the capability and resource to lead a revolution. The only hope I have is for Ginbot 7. But the question still remains whether the G7 leadership will return back to Ethiopia to lead the revolution when the clouds begin to appear. That is the question I forward to the G7 leadership. They have to now that a revolution without a driver is doomed to fail. My hope is also on ESAT. I don’t expect ESAT to be radio mil coline of Rwanda. It has a huge responsibility to incite the people to stand up for a revolution, but at the same time inform the people not to turn the revolution into an ethnic revolution ( revolution with an ethnic element) . It should be a politico- economic revolution that is devoid of targeting Tigreans. ESAT has to inform the people that Zenawi couldn’t represent Tigreans. If that is the case, our revolution will be fruitful and bloodless. A good combination of G7 and ESAT may work. There rests my hope!