d) Another critical matter is the theory related to the fact that poverty in Ethiopia and indeed elsewhere may influence negatively how people may vote in a free and democratic election. Some think there may be the belly vs. conscience paradox that may need to be overcome where in a predominantly poor society where people may crave for food and other necessities, voting and election may be influenced by such concerns rather than political ideas, policies, opinion and conscience. Others say from the depth of deprivation comes hope. From the depth of poverty comes democracy? Some even say to get out of poverty and engage in development the quest for freedom and democracy is necessary. Dr. Berhanu Nega argues with strong conviction often quoting the Indian economies Amartya Sen on this idea of development as freedom and well being. Some say from the state of powerlessness and unfreedom come the desire for freedom and the aspiration to be empowered. These are nevertheless concerns to bear in mind showing the journey for democracy is rough and bumpy and never smooth sailing even if all the elites in one party or different parties help by agreeing on frameworks, norms, procedures for engagement.
It is true despite all these concerns, there is a dynamic movement in the Ethiopian case to move from a state of dictatorship to the eras of democracy and development with an irreversible momentum judging by the energy and dynamism sparked globally by the momentum of the May 2005 elections and the continued mobilisation to date that has not shown any reversal.
e) The role of the alienated parties/fronts such as the OLF, ONLF and others that are not able to join the electoral process will continue to impact on the effort to establish a rule of the game where all can peacefully learn to fight without having to resort to the compulsion provided by armed struggles. It looks increasingly the TPLF/EPDRF response to armed insurgency is to intensify armed counterinsurgency.
Add to this the connection of the armed insurgencies with the regional conflicts where the logic of the enemy of my enemy is my friend can spoil the best laid plan to create a democratic and security community where insurgents, neighbours, rulers and opposition groups respect a largely peaceful way of competing for power and trying to win or lose and still remain undeterred by failure continue to struggle in periodic elections. That situation does not exist yet. The ruling parties use military force. The insurgents use military force. What chance exists for the peaceful opposition and the Ethiopian people to stop the regime and the insurgents and try to win them over to move from the road of violence to the road of debate and open competition? What role can mediators and others play to bring the parties together, to make the parties that committed violence against each other and the civilian population account truthfully and honestly what they did? The situation in Ogaden has been reported to be a site for horrific human rights violations. Can the regime allow independent verification as a means of incentivsing the ONLF to engage in peaceful competition for the self-determination of the Ogaden region? These are critical issues to convert the environment for democracy. It is very difficult to create a democratic situation when there is warfare. The latter must be controlled to promote a democratic situation.
Unless the above factors are fully recognised and honest and non-deceptive debates and negotiations take place, it will be very difficult to see how democracy in Ethiopia will be embedded as a value, framework, norm, institution, process, dynamics, culture for peaceful transformation and transition from violent politics to democratic politics… continued on next page