“There are lies, lies and implausible lies,” to quote Meles Zenawi, the dictator-cum-economic spinmeister of Ethiopia. Last week, Zenawi told a snickering Parliament a story that is the equivalent of the proverbial bull that gave birth to a calf (or in Amharic “bere welede”): “We will be seeing an economic growth rate of 10.1 percent this year, while inflation will fall to 3.9 percent. This is the result of sound economic policy.” (Sorry, but this is the result of voodoo economics!)
For the past several years, Zenawi has been making hyperbolic claims of economic growth in Ethiopia based on fabricated and massaged GDP (gross domestic product) numbers, implying that the country is in a state of runaway economic development and the people’s standard of living is fast outstripping those living in the middle income countries. In March 2009, for instance, Zenawi’s bragged that he expected the Ethiopian economy to grow by 12.8 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) disagreed in the same month stating that given the global economic crises Ethiopia could expect only about 6% economic growth. Zenawi dismissively countered those who pointed out the discrepancies: “We have differences with the international financial institutions when we predict our economic growth, but we usually agree on the economic growth statistics at the end of each year.” The questions remain: Did the Ethiopian economy grow by 12.8 percent in 2009/10? Could it be expected to grow by 10.1 per cent in 2010/11? Who is keeping track of the economic statistics?
The Central Statistics Agency (CSA) and the “National Accounts Department of the Ministry Finance and Economic Development” are the two institutions in Ethiopia that are responsible for keeping track of the statistical data and providing analysis on economic performance. But neither organization has the institutional capability to collect reliable and accurate economic data, let alone assemble complete and comprehensive data sets which could serve as empirical bases for economic prognostications. This fact was emphatically stated on March 24, 2010 in the official statement of Paul Mathieu, the IMF team leader who, after conducting an evaluation of the current half fiscal year economic performance of Ethiopia, said: “Statistics collection of the country requires transformations, and we advised the government to do that.” Translated from “diplomatese” into ordinary language, Mathieu’s statement makes it plain that the statistics and data generated and used by the regime to describe Ethiopia’s economic performance and make predictions are basically “cooked up.” The simple fact of the matter is that the statistics buttressing Zenawi’s exaggerated claims and projections of stratospheric economic growth, vanishing inflation and red-hot performance of key economic sectors originate from seriously flawed, massaged and deficient economic data cooked up in the kitchens of the two institutions for whom the IMF recently prescribed “transformations”.
Zenawi’s stated claims of multi-year runaway GDP growth taken at face value defy not only economic realities but also common sense. On March 4, 2009, the IMF reported that Ethiopia’s economic growth could slow to 6 percent in 2009 based on objective factors rooted in the global economic slowdown and specific trends in the critical foreign exchange earning sectors in Ethiopia such as coffee exports (with decreased demand and a 19 per cent decline in price), tourism and transportation, and depreciation of effective foreign exchange rates by 30 percent. The IMF also indicated that Ethiopia has the highest inflation rate (26%) in Africa outside Zimbabwe. In its April 2010 “Background Note: Ethiopia”, the U.S. State Department reported an average inflation rate (FY 2008-2009) of 36%. There is no IMF (or any other credible multilateral institution) year-end or any other report which indicates that Ethiopia could expect a 12.8 or 10.1 percent economic growth or a decline in inflation to 3.9 percent in 2009/10 or any other subsequent year. Indeed, IMF’s Mathieu stated on March 24, 2010 that “non-food inflation remains close to 20 percent, and has been rising in recent months.” The claim that “we usually agree on the economic growth statistics at the end of each year” is simply not true.
However, for a number of years Zenawi’s regime has been pulling a public relations sleight-of-hand by using the IMF as a front to channel its own preferred economic statistics to prove its economic prowess and unrivalled success to the world. For instance, IMF Country Report (Ethiopia) No. 08/264 (July 2008)[1], states: “Growth has averaged 11 percent since 2003/04, far exceeding the minimum target of 7 percent in the Program for Accelerated and Sustainable Development (PASDEP), that is estimated to be consistent with keeping the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) within reach.” On pp. 20-24 of this Report, the origin of the data indicating an 11 percent growth is not some independent data collection and analysis source but the very same Central Statistics Office which last month the IMF said needs massive “transformation”. The footnotes in the above-referenced pages state: “Sources: Ethiopian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.” Similarly, the data source for “Financial Soundness Indicators for Banking” is identified as the “National Bank of Ethiopia; and IMF calculations.” In its official reports, the IMF simply accepts and incorporates at face value the data for GDP growth given to it by the Central Statistics Office (with its own staff estimates) and incorporates those figures in its own report without so much as qualifying it for completeness, accuracy or reliability.
In the above-referenced report, the IMF further presents GDP growth data given to it by Zenawi’s regime for 2005/06 at 11.6 percent and 11.4 percent for 2006/07. The IMF uses its own “estimates” (without fully disclosing its methodology given the fact that IMF staffers are allowed considerable latitude in incorporating country-specific circumstances in making estimates) to make additional GDP growth projections for 2007/08 at 8.4 percent, followed by 6.0 percent for 2008/09; 6.5 percent for 2009/10; 7.5 percent for 2010/11; 7.5 percent for 2011/12 and 7.5 for 2012/13. The discrepancy between the IMF’s and the regime’s estimates appears to reflect the IMF’s clear lack of confidence in the regime’s economic data and analysis.
The bottom line on the regime’s statistical claims of economic growth, financial soundness and the rest of it is that the figures are cooked up in the Central Statistics Office and fed to the IMF, which slavishly (with a wink, nod and a smile) parrots back to the world the same figures with some of its own “staff estimates and projections”. This is the extent of the economic statistical game that continues to be played before our eyes.[2]
On the other hand, with respect to inflation, the World Bank (Policy Research Working Paper 4969, June 2009), citing IMF data concluded, “One of the most affected countries is Ethiopia, which, with the exception of Zimbabwe and small island economies, has had the strongest acceleration in food price inflation during recent years. Average food prices rose by more than 34 percent in 2007/08, but annual inflation reached historical record growth of 91.7 percent in July 2008.” On March 17, 2010, the regime’s Central Statistics Office reported, “Except for cereals, all food components have shown a rise. The prices of fuel, construction materials, clothing and footwear, furniture and personal care (products) are on the rise.” What empirical evidence exists in the first half of 2010 to justify a prediction of a steep decline in inflation to 3.9 percent in 2010/11 or beyond?
All of the statistical fairy tales about the economy told in Parliament were a source of puzzlement and amusement for Mr. Bulcha Demekssa, the leader of the Oromo Federalist Democratic Party (OFDM) and former vice-minister of finance and senior official at various international institutions. Mr. Bulcha asked Zenawi in Parliament how such fantastic GDP figures could be achieved: “The prime minister and the government have repeatedly said Ethiopia has grown by 10 and 11 percent. The prime minister and Ethiopian economists know that it is a miracle for Ethiopia to grow by 11 percent. How is it that Ethiopia grew by 11 percent? We know that China, South-Korea are registering such economic growth. But we are confused how Ethiopia ’s economic is growing like these countries. Our unemployment and poverty is on the rise.” Zenawi’s response was characteristically evasive, and he denied any real discrepancies: “We have differences with the international financial institutions when we predict our economic growth, but we usually agree on the economic growth statistics at the end of each year.”
The answer to Mr. Bulcha’s question, of course, is obvious. Magic! All one needs to achieve an 11 percent growth is to invoke the GDP Spirits and recite to them the right incantations about “sustainable development”, “export-led growth” and “improved export revenue sector”. Then sprinkle a palmful of that fine IMF gold dust and command: “Shazam! Let there be economic growth of 10.1 percent! (or 12.8, does not matter any number will do). Abracadabra! Inflation, I command you to go down to 3.9 percent (or 1.1).” But the real “miracle” occurs when the magic wand is waived to deliver economic growth to a precise tenth of a percentage point such as 10.1 percent instead of merely 10.
All of the economic swagger and wind-bagging about unrivalled economic boom, prosperity and progress comes from a regime not known for its economic “literacy”. In an editorial published in the Economist magazine on November 7, 2006 in the context of the Starbucks coffee row, the magazine was graphic in its description of the regime: “The Ethiopian government, one of the most economically illiterate in the modern world, would do well to take Starbucks’s advice.”
But there is a more fundamental question to be answered: Could a nation’s economic health be reduced to a single statistical summation? Does GDP growth necessarily mean improved in standard of living? Zenawi says GDP is the only measure of economic performance that has universal acceptance, and he will continue to use it until a better measure comes up. As anyone with an elementary understanding of economics knows, GDP has little value in meaningfully understanding a country’s economic growth, development and prosperity. Its analytical and descriptive value has been thoroughly critiqued in the economic literature. Suffice it to say that to claim that an economy grew by an 10.1 percent is like saying “activity” on city streets increased by 10.1 per cent. The street “activity” without specificity as to crime, car accidents, pedestrian traffic or other events by itself is meaningless. Yet for the past few years, the regime has been trumpeting GDP numbers as some sort of fetish that definitively explains Ethiopia’s economic growth. The GDP numbers, for instance, tell us nothing about the enormous disparity in incomes between the rich and poor in Ethiopia. By overstating economic welfare, GDP calculations do not tell us the magnitude of environmental damage that is taking place. GDP is certainly not a measure of the sustainability of growth, a point repeatedly made in numerous IMF reports on Ethiopia.
Even if actual GDP growth in Ethiopia is 11 percent or more, it is a meaningless statistic when considered in light of the basic needs and well-being of the people. In the vital area of health, for instance, Ethiopia is in a state of absolute wretchedness. According to World Health Organization (WHO) (2006) data[3], to serve a population of 77 million people, there were 1,936 physicians (1doctor for 39,772 persons); 93 dentists (1: 828,000); 15,544 nurses and midwives (1: 4,985), 1,343 pharmacists (1: 57,334) and 18,652 community health workers (1: 4,128). Total expenditure on health as a percentage of gross domestic product was 5.9 per cent. General government expenditure on health as a percentage of total expenditure on health was 58.4 per cent, and private expenditures covered the balance of 41.6 percent. Hospital beds per 10,000 population was less than 25. Per capita expenditure on health was USD$3 at an average exchange rate. WHO’s minimum standard is 20 physicians per 100,000 population, and 100 nurses per 100,000 population. Such is the real matrix of Ethiopia’s 12.8 or 10.1 or whatever fictional GDP number that is pulled from thin air.
On November 3, 2007, the Economist magazine reported:
The fact is that for all the aid money and Chinese loans coming in, Ethiopia’s economy is neither growing fast enough nor producing enough jobs. The number of jobs created by flowers is insignificant beside an increase in population of about 2m a year, one of the fastest rates in Africa…. The government claims that the economy has been growing at an impressive 10% a year since 2003-04, but the real figure is probably more like 5-6%, which is little more than the average for sub-Saharan Africa. And even that modestly improved rate, with a small building boom in Addis Ababa, for instance, has led to the overheating of the economy, with inflation moving up to 19% earlier this year before the government took remedial action. The reasons for this economic crawl are not hard to find. Beyond the government-directed state, funded substantially by foreign aid, there is—almost uniquely in Africa—virtually no private-sector business at all.
The IMF estimates that in 2005-06 the share of private investment in the country was just 11%, nearly unchanged since Mr Zenawi took over in the early 1990s. That is partly a reflection of the fact that, despite some privatisation since the centralised Marxist days of the Derg, large areas of the economy remain government monopolies, closed off to private business. This is where Ethiopia misses out badly. Take telecoms. While the rest of Africa has been virtually transformed in just a few years by a revolution in mobile telephony, Ethiopia stumbles along with its inept and useless government-run services…. There is no official unemployment rate, but youth unemployment, some experts reckon, may be as high as 70%. All those graduates coming out of state-run universities will find it very hard to get jobs. The mood of the young is often restless and despairing; many dream of moving abroad…. Just as the government is slowing the pace of economic expansion for fear that individuals may accumulate wealth and independence, so it is failing to move fast enough from a one-party state to a modern, pluralist democracy. Again, the reason may be that it is afraid to.
The Heritage Foundation, the pre-eminent conservative American think tank echoes the Economist in its 2010 Index of Economic Freedom[4] concluded:
Ethiopia underperforms in many of the 10 economic freedoms. The business and investment regime is burdensome and opaque. The overall quality and efficiency of government services have been poor and are further undermined by weak rule of law and pervasive corruption. Monetary stability is hampered by state distortions in prices and interest rates, and trade freedom is hurt by high tariff and non-tariff barriers…. All imports must be channeled through Ethiopian nationals registered as official import or distribution agents with the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Foreign participation is prohibited in domestic banking, insurance and microcredit services, and several other activities…. Ethiopia ranks 126th out of 179 countries in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index for 2008. Despite legal restrictions, officials have been accused of manipulating the privatization process, and state-owned and party-owned businesses receive preferential access to land leases and credit.
Zenawi is desperate to show economic development of epic proportions in Ethiopia after nearly 2 decades of clinging to power. The fact remains that despite the incredible claims of economic growth, tens of millions of people are starving and go without any health care. Millions of young people remain unemployed and trapped in hopelessness. There is no rule of law and human rights violations are widespread. Whether or not Zenawi’s regime has accomplished an economic feat with few rivals in modern history is not a matter of wishful thinking or public relations. It is a matter of evidence: accurate, complete, reliable and comprehensive statistical evidence that is systematically and carefully collected, analyzed and verified. Such evidence can not be invented, fabricated, manufactured, contrived, concocted or cut from whole cloth. Benjamin Disraeli, the 19th Century British prime minister said, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” In Ethiopia today, we are witnessing all three!
[1] http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/cr08264.pdf
[2] To see a consistent pattern of “economic gamesmanship”, see also IMF Country Report (Ethiopia) No. 07/247 (July, 2007); IMF Country Report (Ethiopia) No. 06/159 (May, 2006); IMF Country Report(Ethiopia) No. 05/25 (January, 2005) and other reports prior to these dates.
[3] http://www.afro.who.int/home/countries/fact_sheets/ethiopia.pdf
[4] http://www.heritage.org/Index/Country/ethiopia
Alemayehu G. Mariam, is a professor of political science at California State University, San Bernardino, and an attorney based in Los Angeles. He writes a regular blog on The Huffington Post, and his commentaries appear regularly on pambazuka.org, allafrica.com, newamericamedia.org and other sites.
For those of us who are accustomed to Meles Zenawi’s propensity for lies, as well as his trademark boisterous rhetoric and empty bravado, his latest pre-election tantrums and deceptive shenanigans come as no surprise. The leader of the minority regime in Ethiopia, which suffers from delusions of grandeur, has never accepted responsibility for his actions and has always relied on its handlers to clean up his mess, provide it diplomatic, financial and political support as it evades its legal obligations, invades sovereign neighboring states, violates international law, reneges on Agreements it has signed, harasses and intimidates its political opponents, commits genocides and ethnic cleansing in Ethiopia etc. etc. . Today, Meles Zenawi and his cadres find themselves in yet another self created crisis-How can they win in the upcoming Ethiopian elections when the Ethiopian people have clearly spoken and rejected his regime?
The planned elections seem more designed for the consumption of US Congress and world opinion than for the Ethiopian people. With the exception of the US State Department and those who are “clearing the deck” to give Meles Zenawi and his mercenary regime yet another “victory” in the upcoming May 2010 elections, the people of Ethiopia know that the elections will be neither free nor fair. As opposed to the 2005 elections when Meles and his thugs stole the votes, massacred over 200 people on the streets of Addis Ababa and detained over 40,000 people across the country for voting the regime out of office, this time around, the tactics have changed. Meles Zenawi, the street smart Prime Minister and his handlers have come up with a brand new bag of tricks…designed to hoodwink the Ethiopian people and criminalize dissent.
The pre-2010 election preparations include the detention and killing of potential opponents, as well as harassments and intimidations of candidates and their supporters. Many who were eligible and ran in the 2005 elections have been kept abroad by an assortment of legal devices and physical threats. Meles Zenawi uses racial slurs and bigotry to put his opponents on the defensive…every one has his tactics. During Ethiopia’s last elections in 2005, Meles Zenawi branded the Ethiopian oppositions and its major challenger, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD), a replica of Interahamwe, and accused them of inciting the violence that erupted after the 2005 elections.
While its handlers concoct excuses for the mercenary regime, Meles Zenawi has taken to the air waves to justify his repressive regime. This foul mouthed and cocky mercenary is heard, once again, making racist and bigoted remarks as he continues to brow-beat his opponents into submission. I am not surprised. I have stated all along that Meles Zenawi was a street smart, genocidal, flip flopping, erratic, bigot and racist and that his regime´s ethnic based policies will eventually destroy Ethiopia, socially, economically and politically. His racist bigotry and ethnocentricity is a matter of public record and well known to the peoples of the Horn region. Allow me to explain.
Bigot and racist
At the height of the Eritrean Ethiopian border conflict, exposing his bigotry and racist attitude, in July 1998, at the height of the Eritrea Ethiopia border conflict ordered the massive and inhumane deportations of over 80,000 Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean origin from Ethiopia, by saying:
“…The Ethiopian government has the unrestricted right to expel any foreigner from the country for any reason whatsoever. Any foreigner, whether Eritrean, Japanese, etc., lives in Ethiopia because of the goodwill of the government. If the Ethiopian government says ´Go, because we don’t like the color of your eyes,’ they have to leave…”
The African Union, US and European Addis based “diplomats”, “political analysts”, “experts” etc. remained silent as thousands of sick, old, young, and men, women and children, religious leaders, etc. were forced to cross through mine-infested borders because Meles Zenawi did not like the “color of their eyes”. It was a clear violation of international law, but his handlers looked the other way and some even justified his actions and made excuses for him.
So it comes as no surprise that he would use such foul language again to get what he wants. Meles Zenawi is a shameless repeat offender. Today it is African Americans who are being insulted by this racist bigot. It was at a meeting with foreign correspondents on 19 March 2010 that Meles Zenawi made these comments about the Voice of America:
“…We have been convinced for many years now, that in many respects the VOA Amharic service has copied the worst practices of radio stations such as Radio Mill Collins of Rwanda in its wanton disregard of minimum ethics of journalism and engaging in destabilising propaganda…We have from time to time provided piles and piles of evidence to concerned US authorities about it. We have from time to time been promised that they would do something about it. But we have not seen anything being done about it to correct it. Indeed we know, if we shall say, blue blooded Americans being booted out from the VOA if and when they try to correct this violation…”
So who are the blue-blooded Americans-is it only white Americans? Is he saying that President Barack Obama, as a Kenyan-American is not a “real American”? Is he implying that African Americans are not “real Americans”? Are Ethiopian-Americans not “real Americans”? If Johnnie Carson wants to make light of the issue, that is his prerogative. It will only embolden the foul mouthed Meles Zenawi to push the envelope even further. Who will he insult next?
By the way, this blue blooded person that he is referring to is, Jennifer Parmelee, who is today Senior Spokesperson for World food USA. Parmelee is associated with Meles Zenawi´s cousin who also happens to be the brother in law of Samuel Assefa, the Ethiopian Ambassador to the United States. The minority regime may have used Parmelee to influence VoA reporting, that would not be a surprise. Corruption and cronyism, it´s the way Meles Zenawi´s regime conducts all its domestic and international affairs.
Ethnocentric
A recent report by an Ethiopian group illustrates what I have been saying all along. According to a recent report by an Ethiopian research team, “the current military of Meles Zenawi´s regime is totally dominated by one ethnic group where by some 95% of the top brass of the military emanate from the Tigrayan ethnic group representing about 6% of the population”. Not only are they from Tigray, they are also card carrying members of the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF).
There should be no surprises there, as I have previously stated that real power in Ethiopia was efectively in the hands of 7 Tigrayans. As a matter of fact, the most influential, important and key Ministries in Ethiopia are directly and fully controlled, run, supervised and monitored by these 7 Tigrayans: Meles Zenawi, Samora Younis, Abay Tsehaye, Mulugeta Alemseged, Newaye-Kiristos Gebre-Ab, Seyoum Mesfin and last but not least, Bereket Simon, a de facto Tigrayan.
As if Ethiopia has a shortage of qualified and capable sons and daughters, the key and most important government posts are held by Tigrayans. The Prime Minister is Tigrayan, so is the Foreign Minister, Chief of Police, Chief of Staff, Chief of Security, Mayor of Addis Abeba (even though he was voted out of office), Minister of Federal Affairs and his Deputy, even the Patriarch of the Orthodox Church is Tigrayan. In the diplomatic arena, most important Ambassadorial posts are held by Tigrayans or are deliberately staffed by hand picked Tigrayan cadres to act as de facto Ambassadors.
Moreover, Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) members and their families control the transportation, manufacturing and several other industries in Ethiopia. Tigray region is also the single highest beneficiary of the massive aid and loan guarantees that is being given to Ethiopia by the IMF, World Bank and international donors. Schools, colleges, roads, airports, factories, and other infrastructure projects are carried out in the Tigray state while the rest of Ethiopia is ignored, and massive debts are incurred, in the name of the Ethiopian people. Let us take a look at the Tigrayans who are at the helm today:
1. Meles Zenawi, the Tigrayan Prime Minister, serves as Commander in Chief of the Ethiopian Armed Forces with the Tigrayan General Samora Younis as his Chief of Staff, and has absolute control of the Ethiopian army.
2. Abay Tsehaye, founding member of TPLF, is the Public Organization and Participation Advisor to the Prime Minister with the Rank of Minister, and according to the new consolidated structure, he controls, monitors, supervises and runs the so-called Ministry of Federal Affairs.
3. Mulugeta Alemseged, a senior member of the TPLF, is the National Security Affairs Advisor with the Rank of Minister and he controls, monitors, supervises and runs the entire police and security apparatus in Ethiopia.
4. Newaye-Kiristos Gebre-Ab, a Tigrayan from Meles’ village of Adwa, is the Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister with the Rank of Minister and he controls, monitors, supervises and runs all Ministeries associated with economic matters, in particular the Ministries of Finance, Revenue, Trade and Industry, Transportation, Mines and Energy etc. etc.
5. Seyoum Mesfin, another Tigrayan, is the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Because he is a trusted Meles disciple, there was no need to create a “Foreign Policy Advisor position with the Rank of a Minister” in the Prime Minister’s Office. It should be recalled that Seyoum Mesfin served as TPLF’s Foreign Minister for 14 years and has been in the same position since Meles Zenawi´s clique took over power in Ethiopia in 1991.
6. Bereket Simon, (listed as an Amhara), but more TPLF than TPLF itself, is the Public Relations Advisor to the Prime Minister with the Rank of Minister. He controls, monitors, supervises and runs the Ministry of Information.
It is not hard to see that all power has been solidified and consolidated in the hands of Tigrayans, hence my assertion that Ethiopia is ruled by a minority clique. This “supra” body completely dominated by the Tigrayan clique, under the guise of “Advisors with Ranks of Ministers”, is now ruling Ethiopia with an even tighter and ruthless iron fist, and is pursuing the policies of kill, imprison, intimidate, vilify etc, so that it can remain in power, by any means necessary. As for the Ethiopian Afar, Gurage, Hadiya and Somali, whilst they may hold high positions in the Ethiopian Government, they are all controlled, monitored, supervised and run by Tigrayans.
The new form of Apartheid taking hold in Ethiopia has systematically alienated and deprived the Ethiopian people equal rights, but most importantly its divide and rule ethnic policy has rendered the people of Ethiopia hopeless and helpless. But don´t expect Meles Zenawi to feel sorry for them, or take offence if others call out his faults. The cocky foul mouthed street smart Prime Minister has no qualms about biting the hands that feed him. When asked about the imprisonment of Ms. Birtukan Medeska, the street smart Prime Minister retorted:
“…It may sound strange that terrorists who have been taken to court found guilty in a court of law have been characterised as political prisoners by the US which was the country which introduced the world to the concept of enemy combatants who are expected to live in legal limbo in perpetuity. But that is life; I think the French say, “C´est la Vie.” That is how we characterize it…”
Meles Zenawi ought to know; after all, Ethiopia is where some of the so-called “black sites,” part of a C.I.A. network of clandestine overseas prisons are found. Meles is telling his handlers that they do not have the moral or legal authority to question his actions as their´s is the same, or worse. I´ll say he has been a good student, and he seems to be applying the lessons learned quite well. They ought to be proud of their creation.
Ethiopia has a street smart, vote-rigging, genocidal, foul mouthed, racist and bigot for a Prime Minister and the US and the international community have a street smart, vote rigging, genocidal, foul mouthed, racist and bigot as their “staunch ally” in the Horn.
Well, I say…you reap what you sow!
The rule of law must prevail over the law of the jungle!
Virginia Declaration of the Conference on Good Governance, Peace, Security and Sustainable Development in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa
A three day conference on Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, which was organized by two civil society organizations- Advocacy for Ethiopia (AFE) and Ethiopian National Priorities Consultative Process (ENPCP), and sponsored by Trans Africa Forum and Africa Action, was successfully held in Crystal City, Virginia, from April 9 to 11, 2010. The participation of several hundreds of Ethiopians, experts, scholars from the United States and Europe, men and women of the Arts, former diplomats and leaders of civic organizations, with Honorable Ana Gomes of the European Parliament, speaking over the telephone from the Sudan, made the conference rich and unique. The conference addressed broad themes of good governance, conflict, civil society and development in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, and has adopted the following roadmap:
ALARMED by the escalation of ethnic and religious polarization, active and latent conflicts in Ethiopia and Somalia, further endangering the livelihood of millions of people and disturbing international peace, and the total absence of a freely elected and accountable governance system in the region;
DEEPLY CONCERNED by the political, economic and social policies implemented by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in the last 19 years, which has failed to make maximum use of the catalytic roles of the donor community’s commitment for good governance, building national consensus, and boosting productivity and alleviating endemic poverty;
NOTING WITH DISAPPOINTMENT that, despite the unabated generous aid flows estimated at $25 billion to $30 billion since 1991, almost all of the credible international economic and governance indices rank Ethiopia at the tail end of world development, to the extent that the country, by the end of 2009, had an estimated 5 million orphans and 13-14 million or 16 percent of the country’s population being identified as dependent on international food aid. Notwithstanding these, the government unashamedly claims double digit economic growth and success in the alleviation of poverty;
RECONGNIZING with dismay that Ethiopia will be entering the next election without adequate preparation, and more importantly, under a cloud of impunity, relentless human rights violations, vigilantism, and the incarceration of political leaders like Ms. Birtukan Mideksa and others, while at the same time the ruling party uses federal and foreign aid funds to recruit youth supporters, all these being done with the intent of building a single-party state.
NOW THEREFORE, We, the AFE and ENPCP, together with the broad cross-section of Ethiopian participants of the three days conference:
1.1 Have agreed that the quagmires that Ethiopia finds itself are by and large a result of the 19 years of poor political leadership of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and his TPLF/EPRDF party. We strongly believe that neither peace nor development can be achieved and sustained while Ato Meles Zenawi is in power. Hence, he must immediately exit the Ethiopian political scene, preferably peacefully.
1.2 We call upon all political parties, including the TPLF/EPRDF, to convene an all inclusive National Conference for Peace and Reconciliation, with a view to establishing a Transitional Government of National Unity that prepares the country for an unfettered free and fair election.
1.3. Call on the Ethiopian people to continue their valiant struggle for peace, democracy and respect for the rule of law. We urge all Ethiopians to continue to resist the divide and rule policies of the regime; we also admire the resistance of the Ethiopian people against religious extremism.
1.4 Call upon the Ethiopian people inside the country and in the Diaspora to support and stand with forces that celebrate our diversity while trying to cement the foundations of a united country. We specifically call on all Ethiopians who are being forcefully recruited by the ruling party to side with the people and refuse to engage in any action that may be harmful to their brothers and sisters.
1.5 Commend and applaud opposition parties, civic organizations and their leaders for the work they do under difficult circumstances, and call upon them to create unity, coordinate their efforts, form unbreakable coalitions, and prepare for pre and post election scenarios.
1.6 Call upon the Ethiopian Diaspora to rise to the challenges and provide material, moral and intellectual support to forces that are committed to advancing good governance and democracy in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
1.7 Call for the convening of civil society organizations with a view to establishing strong rights advocacy networks that can better express the voice of the voiceless, and the causes of the people of Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
1.8 Encourage all Ethiopians to vote for a party that stands for democracy, good governance, unity, and at the same time support democratic forces that stand to defend and protect their votes.
1.9 Call on Ethiopian Americans to use their voting rights to influence U.S. policies towards Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
1.10 Call upon the citizens of Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa to respect and defend the rights of women and children.
1.11 Agreed to establish a working group and broaden the breadth and scope of this declaration so that other stakeholders could join the process in taking the roadmap into action.
2.0 To the TPLF/EPRDF
2.1 Condemn the relentless human rights violations, extrajudicial killings, persecutions and crimes against humanity committed by the TPLF/EPRDF security forces in Addis Ababa, Arba Gugu, Bedeno, Gambella, Hadiya, Hawasa, Ogden, Oromia, and other parts of Ethiopia, and demand that those responsible be held accountable and brought to justice without delay.
2.2 Call for the abandonment of the use of the anti-terrorist and civil society laws as smokescreens to suppress dissent and deny Ethiopians their fundamental economic, social and political freedoms.
2.3 Join human rights organizations, parliamentarians, governments and the Ethiopian people in demanding for the immediate and unconditional release of Ms. Birtukan Mideksa and all other political prisoners.
2.4 Demand that the top brass as well as the rank and file of the Ethiopian military properly reflect the ethnic and religious diversity of the Ethiopian people, and the army’s size, shape, capability and doctrine be improved.
2.5. Demand that the TPLF/EPRDF ceases its manipulation of the electoral process by using federal and donor funds, political party controlled funds, sheltered employment, land and fertilizer.
2.6 Call upon the TPLF/EPRDF and the House of Peoples Representatives to initiate a constitutional reform in accordance to the will of the people, and define a term limit for the office of the Prime Minister.
27 Urge the TPLF/EPRDF to desist from blocking the Ethiopian people from having access to information. We condemn the government’s blocking of the Internet, the jamming of the Voice of America, and the muzzling of the local media.
2.8. Call upon the TPLF/EPRDF to revisit its opaque long-term farmland leases to foreign investors, which we know is dispossessing citizens from the lands and waters on which they depend to survive. We demand the setting-up of an independent expert group, with the full participation of local communities, in order to assess the costs and benefits and ecological as well as social risks of farmland leases to foreign investors. We believe that some of the land leases have the potential to change the geopolitical equation of the region. We also demand that the TPLF/EPRDF discloses all the details of the contracts to the general public.
2.9 Demand that the government discloses the purpose and nature of the ongoing border negotiation with the Sudan, and that TPLF/EPRDF refrains from once again abrogating Ethiopia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
2.10 Demand the immediate repeal of the charities and societies, media, and the anti terrorism proclamations.
2.11 Demand that political party owned and “endowed” companies be urgently reformed.
3.0 To the people of the Horn of Africa:
3.1 We believe that our similarities and connectedness far outweigh our differences. Let peace and stability and democracy shine in our region. Let’s try our level best so that our wounds heal.
3.2 We encourage the continuation of the relationship that has recently been started by scholars from Eritrea and Ethiopia, and hope that such conversations would lead to new beginning which will be mutually beneficial to the brotherly peoples of Eritrea and Ethiopia. Everyone knows that Eritrea and Ethiopia are invariably linked by history, religion, culture, economy, and security. It is thus costly and wasteful for both to maintain the status quo.
3.3 We encourage free and fair elections in all of the countries of the Horn of Africa. We wish success to the people of the Sudan in the ongoing election, and in the implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement.
3.4 We encourage the international community and the people of Somalia to work together in finding solutions to the complex problems of the country.
4. To the Diplomatic and Donor Community:
4.1 We urge all donor countries, particularly the Government of the United States, especially President Barak Obama to live up to the statements that he has made about Africa. We urge the U.S. not to use double standards. We believe the blind eye afforded to Prime Minster Meles Zenawi by the United States has resulted in strengthening repression in Ethiopia. We, therefore, demand a thorough review of the United States’ policy towards Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
4.2 We call on the Government of China to desist from assisting the Ethiopian Government’s anti democratic practices, particularly in providing technical support to block the Internet and the jamming of radio broadcasts. We also call upon the Government of China to make trade mutually beneficial.
4.3 We call upon the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights to attend to the call for the investigation of crimes against humanity in Ethiopia.
4.4 We call upon the United States, the United Kingdom and European Union to investigate whether tax payers’ money collected during the 1984/85 in Ethiopia has indeed been used for strengthening the TPLF’s Red Army.
4.5 Let it be known that we condemn and oppose, in the strongest possible terms, all forms of extremism and terrorism.
Crystal City Virginia, United States of America, April 11, 2010.
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) – The European Union has agreed to monitor Ethiopia’s elections in May, nearly five years after Addis Ababa accused the EU’s chief observer in the last poll of helping to spark violence.
The U.S.-based Carter Centre declined an invitation to observe, saying there was not enough time to prepare for the May 23 vote in the impoverished nation on the Horn of Africa.
“(EU foreign affairs chief) Baroness (Catherine) Ashton last week decided to send a full observation team for the elections,” EU ambassador to Ethiopia, Dino Sinigallia, said late on Tuesday on state-run Ethiopian television.
The monitoring team will be 200-strong and have a budget of about $10 million, Sinigallia said.
Next month’s election will be the first since a government victory in 2005 was disputed by opposition parties and some observers. Monitors said the poll fell short of global standards.
Security forces killed about 200 protesters and imprisoned the main opposition leaders in the aftermath of the vote five years ago.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi had accused the chief EU observer of siding with the opposition and stoking the violence.
Some critics and analysts say that the EU presence at the coming election risked legitimising a fraudulent poll, in a country of 80 million people and more than 80 ethnic groups.
“The mission won’t be able to properly observe,” one analyst, who did not want to be named for fear he would be refused entry to Ethiopia, told Reuters.
ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA — A three-day conference that focused on good governance, peace and security as well as sustainable development in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa ended over the weekend in the Washington-Metro Area of Arlington, Virginia. Horn of Africa Conference in Washington DC, April 2010
Aklog Birara, a senior advisor at the World Bank and an organizer of the conference, said it was a soul-searching conference, adding that Ethiopia’s future and that of the Horn of Africa will largely depend on the talent pool of experts in the Diaspora.
“One of the features that really attracted me is the fact that it (conference) drew a cross-section of experts — foreign experts, Europeans, Americans, Ethiopians, and Ethiopian-Americans from different backgrounds. Overall, there were more than 70 speakers on different topics,” he said.
The conference organized by Advocacy for Ethiopia (AFE) and the Ethiopian National Priorities Consultative Process attracted specialists, former diplomats, human rights activists, and scholars, as well as top officials of the international community.
Birara said the conference also focused on how countrymen living abroad can help improve the lives of Ethiopians back home.
“The focus was on Ethiopia, the Ethiopian people, and the Horn of Africa particularly. What is it that all of us can do that will make a difference in terms of the ordinary people in Ethiopia. What is it that we can provide in terms of really engendering hope (and) aspiration. Bridging relations, for example, across ideological and ethnic lines,” Birara said.
The organizers believe that development in Ethiopia, the stability and its viability, as well as peace and economic development in the region are tied to how Addis Ababa and the international donor community can work together to address previously unmet challenges.
They also said the stakes for Ethiopia and its population of 83 million people are higher than at any other time in its history.
Birara said unity and dialogue among Ethiopians could help rebuilding efforts.
“One of the areas that we tried to explore was we can’t just be constant critics. How is it that we can bridge relationships in order to contribute our part at least in building durable, strong-pluralized institutions in Ethiopia? I think the fact is that we do not reach out to one another across ethnic lines. Dialogue among us, you know. And also dialogue between the opposition parties and government. We need to really accentuate the reaching out,” Birara said.
He added that if Ethiopians fail to come together, the challenges facing the country will persist.
“Lies, lies and implausible lies,” blasted Meles Zenawi, the enfant terrible of Ethiopia, in describing the March 11, 2010 U.S. State Department’s “Reports on Human Rights Practices” on Ethiopia. Apparently, the U.S. State Department is not worth a damn when it comes to lying: “The least one could expect from this report, even if there are lies is that they would be plausible ones,” snarled Zenawi. “But that is not the case. It is very easy to ridicule it [report], because it is so full of loopholes (sic). They could very easily have closed the loopholes and still continued to lie.” His consigliere, Bereket Simon chimed in, “It is the same old junk. It’s a report that intends to punish the image (sic) of Ethiopia and try if possible to derail the peaceful and democratic election process.”
So here is a representative sample of the implausible, ridiculous and junk lies of the U.S. State Department and the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth of Zenawi’s dictatorship:
Implausible, Ridiculous and Junk Lie #1:
There were numerous credible reports of unlawful detention of opposition candidates and their supporters. Opposition UDJ party president Birtukan Mideksa, whose pardon was revoked and life sentence reinstated in December 2008, remained in prison throughout the year. She was held in solitary confinement until June, despite a court ruling that indicated it was a violation of her constitutional rights.She was also denied access to visitors except for a few close family members, despite a court order granting visitor access without restrictions. There were credible reports that Birtukan’s mental health deteriorated significantly during the year.
The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth #1:
A humongous L I E! Birtukan is actually at the “Akaki Hilton Spa and Resort” doing R&R (rest and relaxation). Her health situation is in perfect condition. She may have gained a few kilos, but other than that, and that may be for lack of exercise, she is in perfect health. All the lies about Birtukan’s bad health situation are made up by the “usual suspects” who shall remain nameless. She is not denied access to visitors, but she is shy and prefers to visit only with her mother and daughter. In short, she is having the time of her life. Or as the French say, “C’est la Vie!”
Implausible, Ridiculous and Junk Lie #2:
The constitution and law provide citizens the right to change their government peacefully. In local and by-elections held in 2008, virtually all of the more than three million seats open at the federal and local levels were taken unopposed by the ruling EPRDF and allied parties. Of the 3.6 million local and by-election seats open to be contested, opposition parties won three.
The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth #2:
The State Department should know better than telling this ridiculous lie. The opposition won only 3 seats because “there is no alternative in the opposition.” Everybody knows that including “most Western governments [who] want Meles to continue because there is no alternative in the opposition. As long as the elections are semi-democratic, they’ll probably stay quiet, keep giving aid, hope for liberalisation of the economy and leave full democracy for later.” Here is a hint: Theopposition will completely lose again in next month’s election regardless of how many candidates they run because they don’t understand a simple fact about elections: “The people who cast the votes do not decide an election; the people who count the votes do.”
Implausible, Ridiculous and Junk Lie #3:
Although the constitution and law prohibit the use of torture and mistreatment, there were numerous credible reports that security officials tortured, beat, and mistreated detainees. Opposition political party leaders reported frequent and systematic abuse and intimidation of their supporters by police and regional militias… Abuses reportedly include being hung by the wrists for several hours, bound by chains and beaten, held in solitary confinement for several days to weeks or months, subjected to mental torture such as harassment and humiliation…
The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth #3:
Lies! Torture is a matter of semantics. The alleged torture-victims in the State Department report have an unusually low threshold for psychological and physical pain and discomfort. They also exaggerate stuff. The truth is that the so-called torture-victims are all wusses and wimps. Intimidation is a state of mind as is solitary confinement. Some people just scare easy. Individuals in solitary confinement are not really “solitary” because they can talk to themselves all day and all night. It is a bold-faced lie for the State Department to say, “the [“Ethiopian”] constitution and law prohibit the use of torture and mistreatment.”
Implausible, Ridiculous and Junk Lie #4:
The country has three federal and 117 regional prisons. There are several unofficial detention centers operating throughout the country. Prison and pretrial detention center conditions remained harsh and in some cases life threatening. Severe overcrowding was common, especially in sleeping quarters. Juveniles were often incarcerated with adults, sometimes with adults who were awaiting execution. Men and women prisoners were generally, but not always, separated… The government continued to prevent International Committee of the Red Cross representatives from visiting police stations and federal prisons throughout the country including those where opposition, civil society, and media leaders were held.
The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth #4:
Lies, dirty lies! The so-called prisons are actually popular spas and resorts, as Birtukan can testify. The reason they are “severely overcrowded” is because of high popular demand. It’s “la dolce vita” (the sweet life) as they say in Italian in those spas, or “c’est la vie” as they say in French. As to juveniles, women and condemned prisoners being held together, what difference does that make? A criminal is a criminal is a criminal. The Red Cross? They are too nosy, always asking questions. Shouldn’t they be helping out flood, earthquake and disaster victims somewhere else instead of sniffing around spas and resorts?
Implausible, Ridiculous and Junk Lie #5:
Although the constitution and law prohibit arbitrary arrest and detention, the government frequently did not observe these provisions in practice… The federal police acknowledged that many of its members as well as regional police lacked professionalism. In July the Addis Ababa Police Commission fired 444 staff members, including high-ranking officials, for involvement in serious crimes including armed robbery, rape, and theft. There were no prosecutions of those dismissed.
The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth #5:
Another pack of lies! The State Department is putting words and numbers in the mouths of the Police Commission. The allegedly “fired” police officials are still in their jobs continuing to do armed robbery, rape, and theft.
Implausible, Ridiculous and Junk Lie #5:
Authorities regularly detained persons without warrants and denied access to counsel and family members, particularly in outlying regions. Although the law requires detainees to be brought to court and charged within 48 hours, this generally was not respected in practice… While in pretrial detention, authorities allowed such detainees little or no contact with legal counsel. Police continued to enter private residences and arrest individuals without warrants.
The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth #6:
First of all, the whole due process thing is overrated. Lawyers, warrants, procedure and all that legal mumbo jambo are a big waste of time. The applicable principle is that one is presumed guilty until proven innocent. So, why do guilty people need lawyers? It does not make sense. Why should warrants be required to arrest guilty people? Anyway, even if these people did not commit a crime, they definitely thought about committing one. They are guilty, guilty, guilty! The State Department is obviously pushing some new-fangled Western idea that a person is presumed innocent until proven guilty. What a bunch of liars!
Implausible, Ridiculous and Junk Lie #7:
In May the director general of the Federal Police reported that 65 percent of the 45,000 criminal cases filed at the federal first instance court in 2008 were eventually dropped due to lack of evidence or witnesses…. There was a large backlog of juvenile cases, and accused children often remained in detention with adults until officials heard their cases.
The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth #7:
As the old saying goes, there are lies, damned lies and statistics. The State Department is fabricating false statistics to show that the regime is going soft on criminals. That is a lie! It is a well-known fact that a criminal case is filed only after a person has been convicted of committing a crime. To claim that nearly 30,000 cases were dropped for lack of evidence is to unfairly suggest that the vast majority of those charged were not guilty. How could that be so? The director general of the Federal Police never reported such statistics. It is all a figment of the State Department’s warped imagination.
Implausible, Ridiculous and Junk Lie #8:
Political party leaders reported incidents of telephone tapping and other electronic eavesdropping. In May a former employee of ETC, the state-run monopoly telecom and Internet provider, reported from self-imposed exile that the government had ordered ETC employees to unlawfully record citizens’ private telephone conversations… The government used a widespread system of paid informants to report on the activities of particular individuals. Kebele officials have been reported to go from house to house demanding that residents attend ruling coalition meetings. Those persons who do not attend party meetings reportedly have difficulty obtaining basic public services from their kebeles.
The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth #8:
Ding, dong! All lies told by paranoid opposition leaders who are afraid of their own shadows. By using the phrases “widespread system of paid informants”, “forced attendance of party meetings”, etc., the State Department unfairly suggests that the country has become a police state. Not true! If they had done their “investigations” right and interviewed the “informants”, they would have easily found out that the “informants” are actually researchers doing field studies in social anthropology using “participant observation” techniques. Kebele officials never force people to attend party meetings. The people just love to party and show up uninvited.
Implausible, Ridiculous and Junk Lie #9:
During the year the government loosened restrictions on the delivery of food aid from donor organizations into the five zones of the Somali region in which military activity was the most intense. Approximately 83 percent of food aid reached beneficiaries, a significant improvement from the previous year.
The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth #9:
Liars! The State Department in its usual manner is cooking up numbers. No food aid reached beneficiaries in the five zones of the Somali region.
Implausible, Ridiculous and Junk Lie #10:
The government restricted academic freedom during the year. Authorities did not permit teachers at any level to deviate from official lesson plans and actively discouraged political activity and association of any kind on university campuses. Frequent reports continued of uniformed and plainclothes police officers on and around university and high school campuses. College students were reportedly pressured to pledge allegiance to the EPRDF to secure enrollment in universities or postgraduation government jobs. Non-EPRDF members were also reportedly denied teachers’ benefits, transferred to undesirable posts, and restricted in promotions.
The Truth, the Whole Truth and Nothing but the Truth #10:
Ha! Who would believe in their right minds anything those fog-headed college students and their absentminded professors say? There is a good reason why they are not allowed to engage in politics or deviate from the official lesson plan. We know from personal experience decades ago that you if give students and their professors an inch, they will take a mile. If you give them “academic freedom”, they will soon be yapping in the streets for speech freedom, press freedom, associational freedom, assembly freedom and all sorts of other freedoms. That is just too much freedom for those crazy students and their air-headed professors to handle.
It is just too bad the U.S. State Department can’t handle the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth!
Alemayehu G. Mariam, is a professor of political science at California State University, San Bernardino, and an attorney based in Los Angeles. He writes a regular blog on The Huffington Post, and his commentaries appear regularly on pambazuka.org, allafrica.com, newamericamedia.org and other sites.
