PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking poll shows registered voters preferring Barack Obama to John McCain for president by 51% to 42%.
The nine percentage point lead in Oct. 4-6 tracking matches Obama’s highest to date for the campaign, and the highest for either candidate. Obama led McCain by 49% to 40% near the tail end of his international trip in late July. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Obama has now held a statistically significant lead since Sept. 24-26 polling and has not trailed McCain since Sept. 13-15, roughly coinciding with the intensification of the financial crisis.
The insta-polls, which provide viewers with a somewhat skewed but important insight into how each candidate fared say, by and large, that Obama scored a victory in the second debate.
NBC’s focus group of undecided Pennsylvania voters had the Illinois Democrat winning by roughly a 60-40 split. Frank Luntz’s focus group, over at Fox, showed undecided voters leaning towards Obama because of his position on health care. CBS’s focus group of independents had the Democratic nominee winning the debate at 39 percent to McCain’s 27 percent, with 35 percent of the respondents saying it was a tie. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a Democratic polling firm, had a focus group of undecideds leaning to Obama by a margin of 42 percent to 24 percent.
Meanwhile, SurveyUSA interviewed 741 debate watchers in the state of Washington, 54 percent of whom thought Obama was the “clear winner” compared with McCain’s 29 percent. That same polling firm had the first debate as a tie. In tonight’s survey: 42 percent of respondents said McCain was too forceful.
And the CNN focus group of undecided voters in Ohio had the margin at an even wider spread: Obama 54 percent to McCain’s 30.
A look at some of the specific issues that these Ohio voters valued suggest that they prefer the candidate who, at least on the surface, appears less on the attack. When Obama discussed health care as a right for all Americans, his numbers were through the roof. At one point, female respondents were dialing in at 100 percent approval. When he talked about using diplomacy in Darfur and pursuing Bin Laden in Pakistan, he again enjoyed strongly enthusiastic responses.
McCain had his moments too, mostly when he was discussing economic matters and propping up businesses to turn around the economy. His low points came when he was on the attack. On MSNBC, Nora O’Donnell charted how independent voters and Democrats soured on McCain when he said that figuring out Obama’s tax policy was like nailing Jell-O to a wall.
How solid was the consensus that Obama scored better tonight? Even Bill Bennett, ever the Republican optimist, conceded that the Illinois Democrat scored higher marks.
“I confess I so much admire McCain, but I just don’t think the campaign is equal to the story,’ he said. “I just don’t think it’s equal to the man, it hasn’t been. … We needed a breakthrough, talking about the economy. I think he was a little better than last time, but he didn’t break through enough, and he’s behind. So it just wasn’t good enough for McCain in terms of what it had to be.”
CBS News and Knowledge Networks have, once again, conducted a nationally representative poll of uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight’s presidential debate.
And this new poll has good news for the Democratic ticket: Just as in the first presidential debate and the vice presidential face off, more uncommitted voters say the Democratic candidate won the debate. (We’ve updated this post with final numbers.)
Forty percent of the 516 uncommitted voters surveyed identified Barack Obama as tonight’s winner; 26 percent said John McCain won, while 35 percent saw the debate as a draw.
After the debate, 68 percent of uncommitted voters said that they think Obama will make the right decisions on the economy, compared to 55 percent who said that before the debate. Fewer thought McCain would do so – 48 percent after the debate, and 41 percent before.
Before the debate, 59 percent thought Obama understands voters’ needs and problems; that rose to 80 percent after the debate. For McCain, 33 percent felt he understands voters’ needs before the debate, and 44 percent thought so afterwards.
There is some good news for McCain, who still dominates Obama when it comes to perceptions of readiness to be president. Before the debate, 42 percent thought Obama was prepared for the job, and that percentage rose to 58 percent after the debate. But 77 percent felt McCain was prepared for the job before the debate, and 83 percent thought so afterwards.
Before the debate, 51 percent thought Obama would bring real change; afterwards, 63 percent thought that. For McCain, just 23 percent thought he would bring real change before the debate, while 38 percent thought so afterwards.
Fifty-seven percent thought McCain answered the questions that were asked, and an identical though Obama did.
Seventy-two percent of uncommitted voters remained uncommitted after the debate. Fifteen percent committed to Obama, and 12 percent to McCain.
We will have a full report on the poll later on. Uncommitted voters are those who don’t yet know who they will vote for, or who have chosen a candidate but may still change their minds.
A small asteroid was headed for a fiery but harmless dive into Earth’s atmosphere early Tuesday morning over Africa, astronomers said in a first of its kind advance warning.
Harvard scientists announced late Monday afternoon that the asteroid 2008 TC3 would burn up in the sky, making a fireball potentially visible to people in northern Africa. Measuring between 3 feet and 15 feet in diameter, the rock was expected to enter Earth’s atmosphere above Sudan at 10:46 p.m. EDT Monday, just before dawn in Africa.
Harvard astronomer Tim Spahr said the asteroid was so small it wouldn’t reach the ground before burning up and wouldn’t hurt anyone, but the fireball should be seen heading from west to east.
“It’s the first time we’ve been able to predict an impactor in advance and it’ll be quite a celestial show for the world,” said Donald Yeomans, manager of NASA’s Near Earth Object program, which tracks asteroids and comets that come close.
There are 5,681 such objects, but only 757 of them are large enough to cause any damage if they hit Earth.
This object, spotted by an Arizona telescope late Sunday and calculated on Monday to be heading toward Earth, isn’t one of them. Astronomers don’t know precisely how big it is or what it is made of, but they know that it is small enough that it will burn up harmlessly. As it enters the atmosphere becoming a meteor, it compresses the air in front of it, which then gets hotter, causing a fireworks display.
Rocks this size hit Earth’s atmosphere about two or three times a year, but without warning, Yeomans said.
Astronomers were only able to give the world about six hours notice because the rock is so dark and small. It was spotted a little farther away from Earth than the moon, said Spahr, director of the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center. Astronomers hope by scanning the sky they can eventually give Earth warning for more worrisome rocks that come this way.
“If this were something larger and it was going to hit the ground we would be able to get people out of the way,” Spahr said. But with something this size, they can tell people to look up for a sight that could be “pretty cool from the ground,” he said.
A Somali pirate on a hijacked cargo ship transporting tanks reduced the ransom Tuesday to $8 million, but it was unclear if he was speaking officially for the bandits holding the Ukrainian vessel.
A man who identified himself as Jama Aden and spoke by satellite phone Tuesday is not the usual spokesman for the pirates. He answered the telephone of the spokesman, Sugule Ali, and said Ali was not immediately available.
“There are high hopes we will release the ship within hours if they pay us $8 million,” Aden told The Associated Press. “The negotiations with the ship owners are going on well.”
The pirates originally demanded $20 million.
Aden said a small boat was resupplying the vessel with food and qat, a narcotic leaf popular in Somalia. “The crew is doing well,” he added.
Six U.S. warships are surrounding the Faina, which was hijacked late last month with 21 crew on board. Officials in Moscow say the ship’s Russian captain died of a heart condition soon after the hijacking nearly two weeks ago.
A Russian frigate also is headed toward the standoff. The U.S. Navy warships have been tracking the ship amid fears its weapons might fall into the hands of al Qaeda-linked insurgents in Somalia.
The Faina’s hijacking, the most high-profile this year, illustrates the ability of a handful of pirates from a failed state to menace a key international shipping lane despite the deployment of warships by global powers. More than two dozen ships have been hijacked off Somalia’s coast this year.
Somalia’s government has given foreign powers the freedom to use force against the pirates, raising the stakes significantly. Russia, whose warship is not expected for several days, has used commando tactics to end several hostage situations on its own soil, but hundreds of hostages have died in those efforts.
Somalia, a nation of around 8 million people, has not had a functioning government since warlords overthrew a dictator in 1991 and then turned on each other. A quarter of Somali children die before age 5 and nearly every public institution has collapsed. Fighting is a daily occurrence, with violent deaths reported nearly every day.
Islamic militants with ties to al Qaeda have been battling the government and its Ethiopian Woyane allies since their combined forces pushed the Islamists from the capital in December 2006. Within weeks of being driven out, the Islamists launched an insurgency that has killed thousands of civilians.
Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Ahmed Jama said the government wants world powers to coordinate their approach to Somalia’s violent insecurity.
It is not an issue “that is going to go away. There are a number of dimensions, whether it is pirates, whether it is humanitarian issues, whether it is counterterrorism,” Jama said at a news conference in Kenya’s capital.
